MARKET PROFILE

Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction

Sun Belt metros that surged sharply and are now seeing the steepest 1-year declines.

COUNTIES 76
MEAN BTI 14/100
Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction

[01] What This Profile Means

Large Sun Belt metros — Houston, Phoenix, Miami, and similar — that saw substantial pandemic-era price surges (above 50%) and are now experiencing the country's sharpest 1-year price declines as that demand normalizes. Population continues to grow, but housing has clearly entered a correction phase.

DATA SIGNATURE

Pandemic surge above 50%, 1yr ZHVI change below -2%, peak-to-current drawdown below -5%, population still growing.

[02] Typical Profile

Average values across the 76 counties in this profile.

1YR HOME PRICE
-3.7%
3YR CAGR
-1.4%
PANDEMIC SURGE
+57%
DRAWDOWN FROM PEAK
-8.1%
POP GROWTH
+2.05%
EDUCATION (BA+)
32%

[03] Largest Counties in This Profile

  1. 1 Harris County, TX
    POP 4,726,177 BTI 7
  2. 2 Maricopa County, AZ
    POP 4,430,871 BTI 21
  3. 3 Dallas County, TX
    POP 2,604,053 BTI 14
  4. 4 Tarrant County, TX
    POP 2,113,854 BTI 10
  5. 5 Bexar County, TX
    POP 2,014,059 BTI 1

[04] All 76 Counties in This Profile

Sorted by BoomTown Index score. Click any county for its full profile.

Walker County, TX 50
St. Lucie County, FL 49
Polk County, FL 44
Flagler County, FL 43
Brevard County, FL 40
Volusia County, FL 39
Orange County, FL 38
Smith County, TX 37
Collier County, FL 37
Pinal County, AZ 34
Hood County, TX 34
Marion County, FL 32
Broward County, FL 31
Lake County, FL 30
St. Johns County, FL 30
Hernando County, FL 30
Monroe County, FL 28
Maricopa County, AZ 26
Glynn County, GA 26
Bay County, FL 26
Pinellas County, FL 26
Guadalupe County, TX 26
Clayton County, GA 24
Baldwin County, AL 24
Sumter County, FL 22
Citrus County, FL 22
Duval County, FL 21
Horry County, SC 21
Okaloosa County, FL 21
Polk County, TX 20
Sevier County, TN 20
Fulton County, GA 19
Clark County, NV 18
Henderson County, TX 17
Montgomery County, TX 16
Hillsborough County, FL 15
Pasco County, FL 13
Sarasota County, FL 13
Hunt County, TX 12
Dallas County, TX 12
Henry County, GA 12
Clay County, FL 11
Galveston County, TX 11
Indian River County, FL 10
Comal County, TX 10
Kaufman County, TX 9
Walton County, FL 9
Weld County, CO 9
Chatham County, GA 8
DeKalb County, GA 8
Rockdale County, GA 8
Manatee County, FL 7
Osceola County, FL 7
Bell County, TX 6
Mecklenburg County, NC 6
Tarrant County, TX 6
Kerr County, TX 6
Lee County, FL 6
Miami-Dade County, FL 5
Hays County, TX 5
Wake County, NC 4
Harris County, TX 4
Grayson County, TX 4
Gwinnett County, GA 4
Bexar County, TX 3
Douglas County, GA 3
Rockwall County, TX 3
Travis County, TX 2
Charlotte County, FL 2
Denton County, TX 2
Davidson County, TN 1
Bastrop County, TX 1
Maui County, HI 1
Buncombe County, NC 0
Collin County, TX 0
Williamson County, TX 0

[05] Other Market Profiles

Idiosyncratic Markets
414 COUNTIES · MEAN BTI 51
Heartland Steady Growth
145 COUNTIES · MEAN BTI 83
Educated Suburban Growth
110 COUNTIES · MEAN BTI 44
Western Premium Correction
78 COUNTIES · MEAN BTI 25
Affordable Slow Markets
75 COUNTIES · MEAN BTI 68
Sun Belt Exurban Boom
43 COUNTIES · MEAN BTI 24
Secondary Market Surge
35 COUNTIES · MEAN BTI 56
Persistent Housing Weakness
11 COUNTIES · MEAN BTI 55

Market profiles describe each county's housing-market character, derived empirically from 24 housing, labor, and demographic features across 987 U.S. counties using hierarchical clustering. Counties whose BoomTown Score diverges sharply from a profile's typical range are moved to Idiosyncratic Markets and get a custom narrative instead. Read the methodology →