MARKET PROFILE

Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction

Sun Belt metros that surged sharply and are now seeing the steepest 1-year declines.

COUNTIES 76
MEAN BTI 14/100
Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction

[01] What This Profile Means

Large Sun Belt metros — Houston, Phoenix, Miami, and similar — that saw substantial pandemic-era price surges (above 50%) and are now experiencing the country's sharpest 1-year price declines as that demand normalizes. Population continues to grow, but housing has clearly entered a correction phase.

DATA SIGNATURE

Pandemic surge above 50%, 1yr ZHVI change below -2%, peak-to-current drawdown below -5%, population still growing.

[02] Typical Profile

Average values across the 76 counties in this profile.

1YR HOME PRICE
-3.7%
3YR CAGR
-1.4%
PANDEMIC SURGE
+57%
DRAWDOWN FROM PEAK
-8.1%
POP GROWTH
+2.05%
EDUCATION (BA+)
32%

[03] Largest Counties in This Profile

  1. 1 Harris County, TX
    POP 4,726,177 BTI 7
  2. 2 Maricopa County, AZ
    POP 4,430,871 BTI 21
  3. 3 Dallas County, TX
    POP 2,604,053 BTI 14
  4. 4 Tarrant County, TX
    POP 2,113,854 BTI 10
  5. 5 Bexar County, TX
    POP 2,014,059 BTI 1

[04] All 76 Counties in This Profile

Sorted by BoomTown Index score. Click any county for its full profile.

Bay County, FL 94
Clayton County, GA 92
Sevier County, TN 90
Monroe County, FL 86
Okaloosa County, FL 85
Walton County, FL 78
Horry County, SC 55
Baldwin County, AL 52
Galveston County, TX 50
Smith County, TX 50
Walker County, TX 49
St. Lucie County, FL 46
Pinal County, AZ 44
Brevard County, FL 42
DeKalb County, GA 42
Volusia County, FL 42
Flagler County, FL 40
Duval County, FL 39
Hunt County, TX 37
Miami-Dade County, FL 36
Hood County, TX 35
Broward County, FL 34
Tarrant County, TX 32
Polk County, FL 31
Indian River County, FL 30
Guadalupe County, TX 30
Polk County, TX 28
Lake County, FL 27
Fulton County, GA 26
Sumter County, FL 22
Dallas County, TX 22
Henderson County, TX 22
Rockdale County, GA 22
Henry County, GA 20
Clay County, FL 20
St. Johns County, FL 18
Pasco County, FL 16
Glynn County, GA 16
Kaufman County, TX 14
Hernando County, FL 14
Osceola County, FL 14
Marion County, FL 13
Citrus County, FL 12
Maui County, HI 12
Bell County, TX 10
Charlotte County, FL 10
Kerr County, TX 10
Montgomery County, TX 10
Clark County, NV 9
Grayson County, TX 9
Weld County, CO 8
Pinellas County, FL 8
Mecklenburg County, NC 8
Bastrop County, TX 8
Maricopa County, AZ 8
Gwinnett County, GA 7
Harris County, TX 7
Collier County, FL 7
Lee County, FL 5
Sarasota County, FL 5
Chatham County, GA 5
Hillsborough County, FL 5
Wake County, NC 5
Rockwall County, TX 4
Manatee County, FL 4
Bexar County, TX 3
Orange County, FL 3
Denton County, TX 3
Comal County, TX 3
Douglas County, GA 2
Hays County, TX 2
Buncombe County, NC 2
Davidson County, TN 1
Travis County, TX 1
Williamson County, TX 0
Collin County, TX 0

[05] Other Market Profiles

Idiosyncratic Markets
414 COUNTIES · MEAN BTI 51
Heartland Steady Growth
145 COUNTIES · MEAN BTI 83
Educated Suburban Growth
110 COUNTIES · MEAN BTI 44
Western Premium Correction
78 COUNTIES · MEAN BTI 25
Affordable Slow Markets
75 COUNTIES · MEAN BTI 68
Sun Belt Exurban Boom
43 COUNTIES · MEAN BTI 24
Secondary Market Surge
35 COUNTIES · MEAN BTI 56
Persistent Housing Weakness
11 COUNTIES · MEAN BTI 55

Market profiles describe each county's housing-market character, derived empirically from 24 housing, labor, and demographic features across 987 U.S. counties using hierarchical clustering. Counties whose BoomTown Score diverges sharply from a profile's typical range are moved to Idiosyncratic Markets and get a custom narrative instead. Read the methodology →