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Sarasota County, FL

RANK #930 / 996 NAT  ·  #35 / 41 FL  ·  POP 439,392

1YR FORECAST: -2.6%

5YR OUTLOOK: +10%

Our model projects Sarasota County's housing market at -2.6% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Sarasota County?

Sarasota County, Florida, is often recognized for Siesta Key Beach, frequently ranked among the best beaches in the U.S.. Located on Florida's Gulf Coast, about an hour south of Tampa, the county offers a blend of urban amenities and a relaxed, coastal atmosphere. Commuting within the county is facilitated by Breeze Transit, which includes bus routes and an on-demand rideshare service in zones like Downtown Sarasota/Lido Key/Longboat Key, Venice/Englewood, and North Port. The area boasts extensive outdoor recreation, including Myakka River State Park with its hiking trails and opportunities for kayaking and birding, as well as the 20-mile Legacy Trail for biking and walking.

Life in Sarasota County attracts a mix of retirees, remote workers, and families drawn to its quality of life. The Sarasota County Schools district has consistently received an "A" grade from the Florida Department of Education. The local economy is diversifying, with growth in sectors such as healthcare, technology, and manufacturing. Major investment is occurring in both commercial and residential development, supported by a growing workforce and an emphasis on innovation.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
5.3x

Above national median (4.7x)

GDP Growth
+3.7%

Above national median

Home Prices
-8.2%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
4.8

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
13x

Below national median (13x)

Housing is fairly valued at 5.3x relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Sarasota Memorial Health Care System Healthcare
    10,000+
  2. 2
    School Board of Sarasota County Education
    5,000+
  3. 3
    Publix Super Markets Retail
    2,500+
  4. 4
    Sarasota County Government Government
  5. 5
    PGT Innovations Manufacturing
    1,000+
  6. 6
    Walmart Retail
    500+
  7. 7
    City of North Port Government
  8. 8
    City of Sarasota Government
  9. 9
    Venice Regional Bayfront Health Healthcare
  10. 10
    Goodwill Industries Manasota Other

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Sarasota County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
439,392
+2.34% YoY
Median Household Income
$77,213
Median Home Value
$338,500
-8.19% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,590
Average Annual Pay
$65,133
+5.0% YoY
Employment
190,078
+1.7% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2281
Near national average
Migration Inflow
2.79%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
38.3%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$410,000
Days on Market
69
Slower market
Months of Supply
5.6
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
95.4%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
5.3%
Listings w/ Price Drops
34.9%
Building Permits (2024)
7,466
Single-Family Permits
5,259

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
3.0
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
13.1
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
104.2
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B-
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
45.7
Good
Good Air Days
65%
707 of 1,088 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
1
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
45
2022
45
2023
47
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$250M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Skye Ranch Master-Planned Community
Multiple builders (e.g., DiVosta, Neal Communities, M/I Homes, David Weekley, Kolter Homes)
$100M Under Construction
Sarasota County Enterprise Information Technology (EIT) and Data Facility
Sarasota County
$50M Under Construction
Wellen Park Golf & Country Club - Executive Homes
Wellen Park
$50M Under Construction
Lakespur Wellen Park
Wellen Park
$50M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +3.7% 68 percentile
Population Growth +2.3% 91 percentile
Income Growth +11.1% 91 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.2% 36 percentile
Rent Growth -3.2% 1 percentile
Price/Rent 13x 52 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Sarasota County, FL a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Sarasota County scores just 6/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #930 of 996 counties. Job growth at +1.7% and median household income of $77,213 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Sarasota County affordable?

Sarasota County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $338,500 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.23 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,590/month on average.

Is Sarasota County growing or shrinking?

Sarasota County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +2.3% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +1.7% clip. Home values shifted -8.2% in the past year.

Are people moving to Sarasota County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 2.79% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Sarasota County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

Is the housing market declining in Sarasota County?

Home values fell -8.2% over the past year in Sarasota County, bringing the median down to $338,500. A drop of that magnitude usually reflects weakening demand or population outflow — worth watching if you're considering buying here.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

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