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Collier County, FL

RANK #924 / 1001 NAT  ·  #36 / 41 FL  ·  POP 398,291

1YR FORECAST: -2.7%

5YR OUTLOOK: +17%

Our model projects Collier County's housing market at -2.7% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Collier County?

Collier County, Florida, is distinguished by its vast natural landscapes, with over 75% of its land dedicated to federal, state, and county parks and conservation areas. This includes significant portions of Everglades National Park and Big Cypress National Preserve, offering extensive opportunities for outdoor recreation like airboat tours, kayaking, fishing, and wildlife viewing, particularly for the endangered Florida panther. Naples, the county seat, is a notable town known for its Gulf of Mexico beaches and cultural amenities. Commute options within the county include Collier Area Transit (CAT) bus services, which also connect to towns like Immokalee and Marco Island. The community offers a blend of metropolitan sophistication and natural beauty.

Life in Collier County attracts a mix of residents, including retirees and families, drawn by the quality of life and highly-rated public schools. The economy is driven by sectors such as tourism, which has shown recovery and growth in recent years. There is also ongoing investment in energy-related industries, contributing to the county's economic landscape. The county's commitment to preserving natural lands also supports tourism and enhances property values.

MARKET PROFILE

Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction

Collier County is one of 76 U.S. counties in this market profile — weaker than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of -5.4% runs below the profile's typical -3.7%.

See all 76 Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
17.8x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
-5.4%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
5.0

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
16x

Above national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 17.8x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Collier County Public Schools Education
    5,000+
  2. 2
    Collier County Local Government Government
  3. 3
    Arthrex Manufacturing
    2,500+
  4. 4
    NCH Healthcare System Healthcare
  5. 5
    Publix Super Market Retail
    1,000+
  6. 6
    Gargiulo Agriculture
  7. 7
    Walmart Retail
  8. 8
    Marriott International Hospitality
    500+
  9. 9
    Community Health Systems (Physicians Regional Healthcare System) Healthcare
  10. 10
    Fifth Third Bank Finance

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Collier County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
398,291
+2.74% YoY
Median Household Income
$90,045
Median Home Value
$540,700
-5.38% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,862
Average Annual Pay
$70,189
+3.2% YoY
Employment
172,372
+0.3% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1665
Less affordable than average
Migration Inflow
1.85%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
40.3%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$625,000
Days on Market
77
Slower market
Months of Supply
5.3
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
94.3%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
3.8%
Listings w/ Price Drops
25.3%
Building Permits (2025)
2,736
Single-Family Permits
1,945

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
2.2
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
9.5
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
93.4
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
41.7
Good
Good Air Days
76%
814 of 1,070 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
1
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
42
2022
40
2023
43
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$340M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Goldenrod Solar Project
Undisclosed
$75M Planned
Immokalee Solar Energy Center
Florida Power & Light Co. (FPL)
$74M Operating
Amazon Last-Mile Logistics Facility
Amazon
$50M Under Construction
Uline Distribution Facility
Uline
$50M Under Construction
Affordable Housing Development (Greenway and Frriie Road)
Habitat for Humanity (in partnership with another developer)
$50M Proposed
Tillman Fiber Optic Network
Tillman FiberCo Florida LLC
$40M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +2.7% 93 percentile
Income Growth +4.5% 85 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.3% 26 percentile
Home Price Change -5.4% 1 percentile
Rent Growth -0.7% 7 percentile
Price/Rent 16x 38 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Collier County, FL a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Collier County scores just 7/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #924 of 1001 counties. Job growth at +0.3% and median household income of $90,045 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Collier County affordable?

Collier County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $540,700 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.17 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,862/month on average.

Is Collier County growing or shrinking?

Collier County's population is growing — up +2.7% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of +0.3%). Home values shifted -5.4% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.

Are many people relocating to Collier County?

Not particularly — 1.85% of Collier County's population moved in from another state, which is below the national average. Most residents are long-term locals rather than recent transplants.

Is the housing market declining in Collier County?

Home values fell -5.4% over the past year in Collier County, bringing the median down to $540,700. A drop of that magnitude usually reflects weakening demand or population outflow — worth watching if you're considering buying here.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

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