30 / 100

Doña Ana County, NM

RANK #691 / 1001 NAT  ·  #9 / 11 NM  ·  POP 224,266

1YR FORECAST: -0.8%

5YR OUTLOOK: +16%

Our model projects Doña Ana County's housing market at -0.8% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Doña Ana County?

Doña Ana County, New Mexico, is characterized by its desert landscape framed by the Organ Mountains, a prominent landmark that defines the eastern skyline. Located in southern New Mexico, bordering El Paso County, Texas, and Chihuahua, Mexico, the county seat of Las Cruces is the state's second-most populous municipality. Commutes within the county and to El Paso are facilitated by various public transportation options, including Roadrunner Transit and the NMDOT Park and Ride. The region offers extensive outdoor recreation, with trails for hiking, biking, and wildlife observation in areas like Dripping Springs Natural Area, Organ Mountains-Desert Peaks National Monument, and Prehistoric Trackways National Monument.

Life in Doña Ana County blends a strong agricultural tradition, particularly known for chile and pecan production, with increasing urbanization. The area attracts a mix of families, students attending New Mexico State University, and retirees, drawn by the quality of life and natural amenities. The economy is experiencing growth in service-related industries, with recent significant investments in data centers and energy infrastructure. These developments aim to create new jobs and contribute to the region's economic landscape.

MARKET PROFILE

Idiosyncratic Markets

Doña Ana County's data profile doesn't fit any single market profile cleanly — its housing, labor, and demographic signals pull in different directions (home prices -0.5% YoY, population +1.2%, wages +4.5%). About 414 U.S. counties show this kind of mixed-signal pattern.

See all 414 Idiosyncratic Markets counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
11.6x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
-0.5%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
4.8

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
12x

Below national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 11.6x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    New Mexico State University Education
    2,500+
  2. 2
    Las Cruces Public Schools Education
  3. 3
    Memorial Medical Center Healthcare
    1,000+
  4. 4
    White Sands Missile Range Military
  5. 5
    MountainView Regional Medical Center Healthcare
    500+
  6. 6
    Doña Ana Community College Education
  7. 7
    City of Las Cruces Government
  8. 8
    Doña Ana County Government
  9. 9
    Walmart Retail
  10. 10
    Tresco Other
    250+

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Doña Ana County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
224,266
+1.17% YoY
Median Household Income
$56,848
Median Home Value
$220,800
-0.45% 12mo
Median Rent
$934
Average Annual Pay
$52,236
+4.5% YoY
Employment
81,834
+3.1% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2575
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
2.26%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
31.7%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Building Permits (2025)
833
Single-Family Permits
744

[05] Crime & Safety

C+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
5.3
per 100K · nat avg 6.5
Firearm Fatalities
16.9
per 100K · nat avg 13.4
Injury Deaths
83.3
per 100K · nat avg 83.6
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate
10-Year Trend
Up 47% since 2015
homicide rate, 2015 → 2025

Source: Homicide rates from CDC/NCHS vital-statistics mortality data — a multi-year average that stabilizes counts in smaller counties — compiled in the County Health Rankings 2025 release. Rates per 100,000 population; U.S. average ≈ 6.5. Grade reflects homicide rate relative to the national average. Learn more →

See where Doña Ana County stands nationally: safest large counties in America · highest homicide-rate counties.

[06] Capital Investment

$165,350M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Project Jupiter Data Center Campus
STACK Infrastructure, BorderPlex Digital Assets, Oracle, OpenAI
$165,000M Under Construction
Milagro Solar + Storage Project
EDF Renewables, El Paso Electric (EPE)
$150M Operating
Santa Teresa Solar & Storage Facility
DESRI, El Paso Electric (EPE)
$150M Under Construction
Water and Wastewater Infrastructure Improvements (Project Jupiter commitment)
STACK Infrastructure, BorderPlex Digital Assets
$50M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +1.2% 71 percentile
Income Growth +2.1% 34 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.9% 56 percentile
Home Price Change -0.5% 17 percentile
Rent Growth +1.9% 28 percentile
Price/Rent 12x 81 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Doña Ana County, NM a good place to move to?

At 30/100, Doña Ana County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 1001 counties we track. Median income of $56,848 combined with job growth of +3.1% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Doña Ana County affordable?

Housing in Doña Ana County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $220,800 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.26, with rents averaging $934/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Doña Ana County growing or shrinking?

Doña Ana County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +1.2% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +3.1% clip. Home values shifted -0.5% in the past year.

Are people moving to Doña Ana County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 2.26% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Doña Ana County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Eddy County, NM 10 McKinley County, NM 3 Lea County, NM 68 Sandoval County, NM 68 Bernalillo County, NM 78 Chaves County, NM 83 Benton County, WA 30 Clark County, IN 30