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San Juan County, NM

Farmington

RANK #96 / 996 NAT  ·  #1 / 11 NM  ·  POP 121,798

1YR FORECAST: +4.0%

5YR OUTLOOK: +36%

Our model projects San Juan County's housing market to grow +4.0% over the next year, significantly outpacing the national average.

[01] Why San Juan County?

San Juan County, New Mexico, is defined by its dramatic landscapes and rich cultural history, notably as part of the Four Corners region where four states meet. The iconic Shiprock pinnacle, a sacred Navajo landmark, rises dramatically from the high desert terrain. Located in the northwest corner of the state, the county is rural, with Farmington serving as its largest city and a regional hub. Commutes within the county and to nearby towns like Aztec and Bloomfield are managed by local transit services. The area boasts extensive outdoor recreation, including world-class fly fishing on the San Juan River, boating and camping at Navajo Lake, and numerous trails for hiking, mountain biking, and off-roading.

Life in San Juan County offers a lower cost of living compared to national averages, attracting families and retirees. The local economy, historically reliant on natural gas, oil, and coal, is actively diversifying. While energy production remains a significant sector, there is a growing focus on expanding manufacturing, healthcare, and tourism, particularly outdoor recreation. Educational opportunities include four public school districts and San Juan College, which also hosts a high school where students can earn an associate degree alongside their diploma.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
3.8x

Undervalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
-0.3%

Contracting economy

Home Prices
+2.6%

Outpacing national median

Climate & Terrain
2.8

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
10x

Strong rental yield

Housing looks undervalued at 3.8x — home prices are low relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    San Juan Regional Medical Center Healthcare
    1,000+
  2. 2
    San Juan College Education
  3. 3
    Farmington Municipal Schools Education
  4. 4
    San Juan County Government Government
    500+
  5. 5
    Navajo Agricultural Products Industry (NAPI) Agriculture
  6. 6
    City of Farmington Government
  7. 7
    Raytheon Missile Systems Manufacturing
    250+
  8. 8
    PESCO (Production Equipment & Service Company) Energy
  9. 9
    Hilcorp Energy Energy
  10. 10
    ConocoPhillips Energy

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

San Juan County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
121,798
-0.91% YoY
Median Household Income
$50,734
Median Home Value
$170,700
+2.6% 12mo
Median Rent
$894
Average Annual Pay
$56,008
+3.3% YoY
Employment
46,650
+1.8% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2972
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
1.4%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
15.7%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$350,000
Days on Market
38
Active market
Months of Supply
3.8
Balanced market
Listings w/ Price Drops
20.9%
Building Permits (2024)
78
Single-Family Permits
70

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

D
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
11.8
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
23.0
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
153.7
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well above national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B-
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
45.7
Good
Good Air Days
66%
724 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
23
Includes 1 Very Unhealthy
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
46
2022
45
2023
46
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$770M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
San Juan 1 Solar and Battery Storage Facility (Phase 1)
D.E. Shaw Renewable Investments (DESRI) / Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM)
$500M Under Construction
Sunbelt Project (Solar and Battery Storage)
Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM)
$220M Planned
Natural Gas Pipeline Extension to San Juan County Industrial Park
New Mexico Gas Co.
$50M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth -0.3% 6 percentile
Population Growth -0.9% 4 percentile
Income Growth +6.8% 16 percentile
Vacancy Rate 2.0% 8 percentile
Home Price Change +2.6% 66 percentile
Rent Growth +3.2% 53 percentile
Price/Rent 10x 88 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is San Juan County, NM a good place to move to?

San Juan County ranks #96 out of 996 U.S. counties on the Boom Town Index with a score of 90/100, putting it in the top tier nationally. Job growth of +1.8% and a median household income of $50,734 point to a county with active economic momentum.

Is San Juan County affordable?

Housing in San Juan County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $170,700 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.30, with rents averaging $894/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is San Juan County growing or shrinking?

It's a mixed picture in San Juan County. The population is declining (-0.9% YoY), but employers are actually hiring — job growth is at +1.8%. Home values moved +2.6% in the last year. That tension between shrinking population and expanding employment often signals a county in transition.

Are many people relocating to San Juan County?

Not particularly — 1.4% of San Juan County's population moved in from another state, which is below the national average. Most residents are long-term locals rather than recent transplants.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Eddy County, NM 74 Valencia County, NM 70 McKinley County, NM 42 Doña Ana County, NM 42 Lea County, NM 37 Otero County, NM 34 Robeson County, NC 90 Black Hawk County, IA 90