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Sevier County, TN

District 4

RANK #767 / 996 NAT  ·  #27 / 33 TN  ·  POP 98,455

1YR FORECAST: -2.2%

5YR OUTLOOK: +17%

Our model projects Sevier County's housing market at -2.2% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Sevier County?

Sevier County, Tennessee, is defined by its connection to the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, which forms a significant portion of its southern border. The county seat, Sevierville, is known as the birthplace of Dolly Parton, with a statue of the singer located downtown. Sevier County is approximately 26 miles from Knoxville, a drive that typically takes under 30 minutes in normal traffic. The community feel varies across its towns, from the bustling tourist centers of Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge to quieter areas like Wears Valley. The county's landscape features fertile lowlands along the French Broad and Little Pigeon Rivers, alongside the mountainous terrain of the Smokies, including Clingman's Dome, the highest peak in Tennessee. Outdoor recreation is a major draw, with opportunities for hiking, fishing, camping, and exploring waterfalls like Ramsey Cascades within the national park. Douglas Lake also offers boating and other water activities.

Life in Sevier County is shaped by its natural surroundings and a strong tourism industry. The population includes families, retirees, and individuals drawn to the area's scenic beauty and outdoor activities. The Sevier County School System serves nearly 15,000 students across 31 schools, with public schools generally rated above average. While public transit options like the Pigeon Forge and Gatlinburg trolley systems exist, personal vehicles are common for commuting. The economy is largely driven by tourism, with significant investment in commercial and residential developments to support both visitors and a growing resident base. This includes new attractions and housing projects, reflecting a continuous influx of people and capital into the region.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
4.1x

Below national median (4.7x)

GDP Growth
+2.2%

Below national median

Home Prices
-3.9%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
1.8

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
12x

Strong rental yield

Housing is fairly valued at 4.1x relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Sevier County Schools Education
    2,500+
  2. 2
    County of Sevier Government
    500+
  3. 3
    LeConte Medical Center Healthcare
  4. 4
    City of Sevierville Government
  5. 5
    City of Pigeon Forge Government
    250+
  6. 6
    City of Gatlinburg Government
  7. 7
    Stokely Hospitality Enterprise Hospitality
  8. 8
    Sevier County Bank Finance
  9. 9
    Sevier County High School Education
  10. 10
    Mountain National Bank Finance

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Sevier County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
98,455
+0.37% YoY
Median Household Income
$60,103
Median Home Value
$239,800
-3.85% 12mo
Median Rent
$968
Average Annual Pay
$43,711
+2.7% YoY
Employment
53,730
+2.8% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2506
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
2.4%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
20.1%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$474,950
Days on Market
94
Slower market
Months of Supply
10.5
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
95.6%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
7.8%
Listings w/ Price Drops
19.2%
Building Permits (2024)
1,441
Single-Family Permits
882

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
3.1
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
18.4
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
128.0
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
43.7
Good
Good Air Days
83%
777 of 941 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
3
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
42
2022
44
2023
45
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$408M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
407 Gateway to Adventure
Undisclosed (multiple developers)
$200M Under Construction
FedEx Ground Distribution Facility
FedEx Ground
$50M Operating
D.R. Horton Townhome Development (Redbank Road)
D.R. Horton
$50M Proposed
Wilderness at the Smokies Water Park Expansion
Wilderness at the Smokies
$40M Completed
Sevier County Courts Building
Sevier County Government
$34M Under Construction
Anakeesta Expansion
Anakeesta
$34M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +2.2% 39 percentile
Population Growth +0.4% 46 percentile
Income Growth +10.6% 87 percentile
Vacancy Rate 3.6% 1 percentile
Home Price Change -3.9% 6 percentile
Rent Growth -0.9% 5 percentile
Price/Rent 12x 74 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Sevier County, TN a good place to move to?

At 22/100, Sevier County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 996 counties we track. Median income of $60,103 combined with job growth of +2.8% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Sevier County affordable?

Housing in Sevier County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $239,800 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.25, with rents averaging $968/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Sevier County growing or shrinking?

Employers in Sevier County are hiring — job growth of +2.8% — but the population is close to flat (+0.4% YoY). Home values moved -3.9% over the past year. Labor demand is outpacing local population growth, which tends to tighten wages and housing.

Are people moving to Sevier County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 2.4% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Sevier County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Robertson County, TN 22 Loudon County, TN 23 Cumberland County, TN 20 Maury County, TN 25 Sumner County, TN 25 Knox County, TN 25 Madison County, KY 22 Umatilla County, OR 22