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Sebastian County, AR

RANK #43 / 1001 NAT  ·  #3 / 13 AR  ·  POP 128,900

1YR FORECAST: +0.9%

5YR OUTLOOK: +39%

Our model projects Sebastian County's housing market to grow +0.9% over the next year, significantly outpacing the national average.

[01] Why Sebastian County?

Sebastian County, Arkansas, stands out for its unique dual county seats: Fort Smith, the state's second-largest city, and Greenwood. This western Arkansas county, bordering Oklahoma, is situated in the Arkansas River Valley, with its southern edge touching the Ouachita Mountains. The Arkansas River forms its northern boundary. Commutes within the county are generally short, with an average one-way trip of under 20 minutes. The area offers extensive outdoor recreation, including over 7.5 miles of paved trails and 14 miles of mountain biking and hiking trails at Ben Geren Regional Park, one of the largest county parks in Arkansas. Fishing in the Arkansas River is also a popular activity.

Life in Sebastian County offers a family-friendly environment with a relatively low cost of living. The public schools in the county are highly rated, with districts like Greenwood and Fort Smith receiving positive reviews. The economy, historically tied to coal mining and the Fort Chaffee military base, has diversified. While the overall Arkansas economy has recently grown faster, Sebastian County continues to see steady gains in business establishments and average weekly wages. The University of Arkansas – Fort Smith also contributes to the local economy by providing a skilled workforce.

MARKET PROFILE

Affordable Slow Markets

Sebastian County is one of 75 U.S. counties in this market profile — stronger than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of +3.5% runs above the profile's typical +0.8%.

See all 75 Affordable Slow Markets counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
6.0x

Below national median (11.3x)

Home Prices
+3.5%

Outpacing national median

Climate & Terrain
1.1

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
14x

Below national median (15x)

Housing is fairly valued at 6.0x relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Sparks Health System Healthcare
    1,000+
  2. 2
    Mercy Hospital Fort Smith Healthcare
  3. 3
    Fort Smith Public Schools Education
  4. 4
    OK Foods Manufacturing
  5. 5
    Baldor Electric Company Manufacturing
  6. 6
    ArcBest Corporation Logistics
  7. 7
    University of Arkansas-Fort Smith Education
  8. 8
    Bost Human Development Services Education
    500+
  9. 9
    Golden Living Healthcare
  10. 10
    City of Fort Smith Government

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Sebastian County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
128,900
+0.35% YoY
Median Household Income
$57,790
Median Home Value
$176,200
+3.46% 12mo
Median Rent
$886
Average Annual Pay
$55,767
+1.1% YoY
Employment
67,650
0.0% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.328
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
3.93%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
23.3%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$225,000
Days on Market
43
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
3.7
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.8%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
13.8%
Listings w/ Price Drops
33.0%
Building Permits (2025)
525
Single-Family Permits
143

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
6.2
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
15.8
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
82.7
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Near national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +0.3% 37 percentile
Income Growth +2.4% 39 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.6% 15 percentile
Home Price Change +3.5% 72 percentile
Rent Growth +3.7% 65 percentile
Price/Rent 14x 65 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[07] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Sebastian County, AR a good place to move to?

Sebastian County ranks #43 out of 1001 U.S. counties on the Boom Town Index with a score of 96/100, placing it in the top tier nationally. Median household income is $57,790 and the underlying growth metrics (housing, migration, income) hold up against peer counties.

Is Sebastian County affordable?

Housing in Sebastian County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $176,200 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.33, with rents averaging $886/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Sebastian County growing or shrinking?

Population and employment in Sebastian County are both close to flat — population +0.3% YoY and jobs 0.0%. Home values shifted +3.5% over the past 12 months. A steady-state county, neither expanding quickly nor shrinking.

Are people moving to Sebastian County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.93% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Sebastian County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[08] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Lonoke County, AR 97 Pope County, AR 98 Garland County, AR 92 Crawford County, AR 84 Craighead County, AR 80 White County, AR 72 Marathon County, WI 96 Schuylkill County, PA 96