85 / 100

Sebastian County, AR

Upper

RANK #150 / 996 NAT  ·  #6 / 13 AR  ·  POP 128,184

1YR FORECAST: +2.2%

5YR OUTLOOK: +34%

Our model projects Sebastian County's housing market to grow +2.2% over the next year, significantly outpacing the national average.

[01] Why Sebastian County?

Sebastian County, Arkansas, stands out for its unique dual county seats: Fort Smith, the state's second-largest city, and Greenwood. This western Arkansas county, bordering Oklahoma, is situated in the Arkansas River Valley, with its southern edge touching the Ouachita Mountains. The Arkansas River forms its northern boundary. Commutes within the county are generally short, with an average one-way trip of under 20 minutes. The area offers extensive outdoor recreation, including over 7.5 miles of paved trails and 14 miles of mountain biking and hiking trails at Ben Geren Regional Park, one of the largest county parks in Arkansas. Fishing in the Arkansas River is also a popular activity.

Life in Sebastian County offers a family-friendly environment with a relatively low cost of living. The public schools in the county are highly rated, with districts like Greenwood and Fort Smith receiving positive reviews. The economy, historically tied to coal mining and the Fort Chaffee military base, has diversified. While the overall Arkansas economy has recently grown faster, Sebastian County continues to see steady gains in business establishments and average weekly wages. The University of Arkansas – Fort Smith also contributes to the local economy by providing a skilled workforce.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
2.7x

Undervalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+2.2%

Below national median

Home Prices
+2.9%

Outpacing national median

Climate & Terrain
1.1

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
13x

Below national median (13x)

Housing looks undervalued at 2.7x — home prices are low relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Sparks Health System Healthcare
    1,000+
  2. 2
    Mercy Hospital Fort Smith Healthcare
  3. 3
    Fort Smith Public Schools Education
  4. 4
    OK Foods Manufacturing
  5. 5
    Baldor Electric Company Manufacturing
  6. 6
    ArcBest Corporation Logistics
  7. 7
    University of Arkansas-Fort Smith Education
  8. 8
    Bost Human Development Services Education
    500+
  9. 9
    Golden Living Healthcare
  10. 10
    City of Fort Smith Government

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Sebastian County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
128,184
+0.19% YoY
Median Household Income
$54,047
Median Home Value
$154,900
+2.9% 12mo
Median Rent
$805
Average Annual Pay
$55,173
+3.8% YoY
Employment
67,665
+1.2% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.3489
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
3.76%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
23.9%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$220,000
Days on Market
71
Slower market
Months of Supply
5.0
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
96.9%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
14.9%
Listings w/ Price Drops
23.3%
Building Permits (2024)
385
Single-Family Permits
234

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
6.2
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
15.8
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
82.7
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Near national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +2.2% 40 percentile
Population Growth +0.2% 38 percentile
Income Growth +7.6% 28 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.6% 18 percentile
Home Price Change +2.9% 71 percentile
Rent Growth +2.9% 48 percentile
Price/Rent 13x 59 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[07] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Sebastian County, AR a good place to move to?

Sebastian County ranks #150 out of 996 U.S. counties on the Boom Town Index with a score of 85/100, putting it in the top tier nationally. Job growth of +1.2% and a median household income of $54,047 point to a county with active economic momentum.

Is Sebastian County affordable?

Housing in Sebastian County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $154,900 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.35, with rents averaging $805/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Sebastian County growing or shrinking?

Employers in Sebastian County are hiring — job growth of +1.2% — but the population is close to flat (+0.2% YoY). Home values moved +2.9% over the past year. Labor demand is outpacing local population growth, which tends to tighten wages and housing.

Are people moving to Sebastian County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.76% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Sebastian County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[08] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Washington County, AR 84 Crawford County, AR 83 Pope County, AR 88 Jefferson County, AR 89 Craighead County, AR 92 Lonoke County, AR 93 Sumter County, SC 85 Cullman County, AL 85