RANK #918 / 1001 NAT · #27 / 33 TN · POP 59,710
1YR FORECAST: -0.0%
5YR OUTLOOK: +11%
Coffee County, Tennessee, is perhaps best known as the home of the Bonnaroo Music and Arts Festival, which draws thousands to Manchester annually. Located in Middle Tennessee, roughly halfway between Nashville and Chattanooga, the county offers a blend of small-town living with access to larger cities. The landscape features rolling hills and waterways like the Duck River, providing opportunities for outdoor recreation at places such as Old Stone Fort State Archaeological Park and Short Springs State Natural Area. Life in Coffee County appeals to families and those seeking a more relaxed pace. The public school system serves over 4,500 students across 23 schools, with a high percentage of K-12 students attending public institutions. The economy is experiencing growth, driven by investments in data centers, logistics, and manufacturing. Recent developments include new facilities in the Manchester Industrial Park, enhancing the county's capacity for future industrial opportunities. The presence of the Arnold Engineering Development Complex also contributes to a workforce with technical skills.
Coffee County is one of 35 U.S. counties in this market profile — weaker than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of +2.3% runs above the profile's typical +1.4%.
See all 35 Secondary Market Surge counties →Overvalued relative to economy
Above national median
Below-average climate & terrain
Below national median (15x)
Housing looks overvalued at 9.5x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.
Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.
Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).
Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →
Source: Homicide rates from CDC/NCHS vital-statistics mortality data — a multi-year average that stabilizes counts in smaller counties — compiled in the County Health Rankings 2025 release. Rates per 100,000 population; U.S. average ≈ 6.5. Grade reflects homicide rate relative to the national average. Learn more →
See where Coffee County stands nationally: safest large counties in America · highest homicide-rate counties · counties where safety is improving.
| PROJECT | AMOUNT | STATUS |
|---|---|---|
|
USAF Data Center Proposal
U.S. Air Force
|
$500M | Proposed |
|
Little Leaf Farms Greenhouse
Little Leaf Farms
|
$75M | Planned |
|
Dot Foods Distribution Facility
Dot Foods, Inc.
|
$50M | Under Construction |
|
I-24 Industrial Site Rezoning
Coffee County
|
$50M | Proposed |
Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.
Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.
The data is not encouraging — Coffee County scores just 8/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #918 of 1001 counties. Job growth at -3.0% and median household income of $61,505 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.
Coffee County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $246,800 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.25 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $913/month on average.
Coffee County is attracting residents (population +1.3% YoY) even as the job market softens with employment at -3.0%. Housing values changed +2.3% over the past 12 months. People may be moving here for affordability or lifestyle reasons rather than job opportunities.
In significant numbers — 5.76% of Coffee County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.