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Sumner County, TN

RANK #593 / 1001 NAT  ·  #16 / 33 TN  ·  POP 204,424

1YR FORECAST: -1.5%

5YR OUTLOOK: +27%

Sumner County's housing market is projected to grow -1.5% over the next year, below the national average.

[01] Why Sumner County?

Sumner County, Tennessee, often called "Nashville's North Shore," is distinguished by its extensive 440 miles of Old Hickory Lake shoreline, attracting residents and visitors for boating, fishing, and lakeside recreation. Located northeast of Nashville, the county offers a blend of small-town character and access to city amenities, with Hendersonville and Gallatin serving as prominent towns. Commuting to Nashville primarily involves car travel via State Route 386 and US-31E, with limited public transit options. The community provides numerous parks and greenways, such as Drakes Creek Park and the Hendersonville Greenway, for outdoor activities.

Life in Sumner County appeals to a diverse population, including families and retirees, drawn by its schools and natural scenery. The Sumner County Schools district is recognized for its quality education and career-focused programs. The local economy is experiencing growth, with investments in manufacturing, commercial and residential development, and the energy sector. This expansion is creating new job opportunities and contributing to the county's evolving economic landscape.

MARKET PROFILE
LEANS TOWARD

Sun Belt Exurban Boom

Sumner County is one of 43 U.S. counties in this market profile — stronger than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of +0.4% matches the profile's typical -0.0%.

See all 43 Sun Belt Exurban Boom counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
20.9x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
+0.4%

Well below national median

Climate & Terrain
0.2

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
20x

Above national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 20.9x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Sumner County Government & Public Schools Government
    2,500+
  2. 2
    Gap, Inc. Retail
  3. 3
    Lifepoint Health Healthcare
    1,000+
  4. 4
    Sumner Regional Medical Center Healthcare
  5. 5
    ABC Technologies Manufacturing
  6. 6
    Dollar General Retail
    500+
  7. 7
    Volunteer State Community College Education
  8. 8
    Kroger Co. Retail
  9. 9
    TriStar Hendersonville Medical Center Healthcare
  10. 10
    City of Gallatin Government

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Sumner County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
204,424
+1.93% YoY
Median Household Income
$90,301
Median Home Value
$393,100
+0.4% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,424
Average Annual Pay
$61,503
+3.7% YoY
Employment
62,626
-0.1% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2297
Near national average
Migration Inflow
3.92%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
33.6%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$434,000
Days on Market
70
Slower market
Months of Supply
4.4
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.7%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
15.7%
Listings w/ Price Drops
23.2%
Building Permits (2025)
3,045
Single-Family Permits
1,571

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B-
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
4.5
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
15.5
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
90.8
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
43.7
Good
Good Air Days
68%
727 of 1,068 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
10
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
44
2022
42
2023
45
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$3,490M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Meta Gallatin Data Center
Meta
$1,500M Under Construction
Hendersonville New Development (Retail, Office, Industrial)
Various Developers
$1,000M Approved
Evergy Natural Gas Plant
Evergy Energy
$500M Planned
Wild Plains Wind Farm
NextEra Energy Resources
$300M Completed
Simpson Strong-Tie Manufacturing Expansion
Simpson Strong-Tie
$110M Under Construction
Shoals Technologies Expansion
Shoals Technologies
$80M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +1.9% 86 percentile
Income Growth +5.0% 90 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.2% 30 percentile
Home Price Change +0.4% 31 percentile
Rent Growth +0.0% 11 percentile
Price/Rent 20x 18 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Sumner County, TN a good place to move to?

Sumner County scores 40/100 on the Boom Town Index, landing in the middle of the pack among 1001 U.S. counties (#593). Median household income is $90,301 and job growth is running at -0.1%. The data points to a county with mixed signals — some positive indicators alongside areas that lag faster-growing peers.

Is Sumner County affordable?

Sumner County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $393,100 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.23 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,424/month on average.

Is Sumner County growing or shrinking?

Sumner County's population is growing — up +1.9% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of -0.1%). Home values shifted +0.4% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.

Are people moving to Sumner County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.92% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Sumner County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Montgomery County, TN 36 Washington County, TN 47 Rutherford County, TN 32 Wilson County, TN 32 Gibson County, TN 31 Bedford County, TN 52 Livingston County, MI 40 Carroll County, MD 40