RANK #593 / 1001 NAT · #16 / 33 TN · POP 204,424
1YR FORECAST: -1.5%
5YR OUTLOOK: +27%
Sumner County, Tennessee, often called "Nashville's North Shore," is distinguished by its extensive 440 miles of Old Hickory Lake shoreline, attracting residents and visitors for boating, fishing, and lakeside recreation. Located northeast of Nashville, the county offers a blend of small-town character and access to city amenities, with Hendersonville and Gallatin serving as prominent towns. Commuting to Nashville primarily involves car travel via State Route 386 and US-31E, with limited public transit options. The community provides numerous parks and greenways, such as Drakes Creek Park and the Hendersonville Greenway, for outdoor activities.
Life in Sumner County appeals to a diverse population, including families and retirees, drawn by its schools and natural scenery. The Sumner County Schools district is recognized for its quality education and career-focused programs. The local economy is experiencing growth, with investments in manufacturing, commercial and residential development, and the energy sector. This expansion is creating new job opportunities and contributing to the county's evolving economic landscape.
Sumner County is one of 43 U.S. counties in this market profile — stronger than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of +0.4% matches the profile's typical -0.0%.
See all 43 Sun Belt Exurban Boom counties →Overvalued relative to economy
Well below national median
Moderate climate & terrain
Above national median (15x)
Housing looks overvalued at 20.9x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.
Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.
Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).
Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →
Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →
Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →
| PROJECT | AMOUNT | STATUS |
|---|---|---|
|
Meta Gallatin Data Center
Meta
|
$1,500M | Under Construction |
|
Hendersonville New Development (Retail, Office, Industrial)
Various Developers
|
$1,000M | Approved |
|
Evergy Natural Gas Plant
Evergy Energy
|
$500M | Planned |
|
Wild Plains Wind Farm
NextEra Energy Resources
|
$300M | Completed |
|
Simpson Strong-Tie Manufacturing Expansion
Simpson Strong-Tie
|
$110M | Under Construction |
|
Shoals Technologies Expansion
Shoals Technologies
|
$80M | Planned |
Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.
Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.
Sumner County scores 40/100 on the Boom Town Index, landing in the middle of the pack among 1001 U.S. counties (#593). Median household income is $90,301 and job growth is running at -0.1%. The data points to a county with mixed signals — some positive indicators alongside areas that lag faster-growing peers.
Sumner County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $393,100 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.23 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,424/month on average.
Sumner County's population is growing — up +1.9% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of -0.1%). Home values shifted +0.4% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.
There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.92% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Sumner County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.