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Sumner County, TN

District 4

RANK #741 / 996 NAT  ·  #23 / 33 TN  ·  POP 196,845

1YR FORECAST: -0.0%

5YR OUTLOOK: +18%

Our model projects Sumner County's housing market at -0.0% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Sumner County?

Sumner County, Tennessee, often called "Nashville's North Shore," is distinguished by its extensive 440 miles of Old Hickory Lake shoreline, attracting residents and visitors for boating, fishing, and lakeside recreation. Located northeast of Nashville, the county offers a blend of small-town character and access to city amenities, with Hendersonville and Gallatin serving as prominent towns. Commuting to Nashville primarily involves car travel via State Route 386 and US-31E, with limited public transit options. The community provides numerous parks and greenways, such as Drakes Creek Park and the Hendersonville Greenway, for outdoor activities.

Life in Sumner County appeals to a diverse population, including families and retirees, drawn by its schools and natural scenery. The Sumner County Schools district is recognized for its quality education and career-focused programs. The local economy is experiencing growth, with investments in manufacturing, commercial and residential development, and the energy sector. This expansion is creating new job opportunities and contributing to the county's evolving economic landscape.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
7.1x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+5.0%

Well above national median

Home Prices
+0.5%

Well below national median

Climate & Terrain
0.2

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
17x

Above national median (13x)

Housing looks overvalued at 7.1x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Sumner County Government & Public Schools Government
    2,500+
  2. 2
    Gap, Inc. Retail
  3. 3
    Lifepoint Health Healthcare
    1,000+
  4. 4
    Sumner Regional Medical Center Healthcare
  5. 5
    ABC Technologies Manufacturing
  6. 6
    Dollar General Retail
    500+
  7. 7
    Volunteer State Community College Education
  8. 8
    Kroger Co. Retail
  9. 9
    TriStar Hendersonville Medical Center Healthcare
  10. 10
    City of Gallatin Government

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Sumner County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
196,845
+1.97% YoY
Median Household Income
$81,883
Median Home Value
$332,700
+0.47% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,245
Average Annual Pay
$59,304
+4.5% YoY
Employment
62,665
+2.6% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2461
Near national average
Migration Inflow
4.21%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
31.2%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$444,900
Days on Market
85
Slower market
Months of Supply
5.7
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.1%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
13.0%
Listings w/ Price Drops
22.5%
Building Permits (2024)
1,778
Single-Family Permits
1,620

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B-
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
4.5
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
15.5
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
90.8
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
43.7
Good
Good Air Days
68%
727 of 1,068 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
10
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
44
2022
42
2023
45
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$3,490M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Meta Gallatin Data Center
Meta
$1,500M Under Construction
Hendersonville New Development (Retail, Office, Industrial)
Various Developers
$1,000M Approved
Evergy Natural Gas Plant
Evergy Energy
$500M Planned
Wild Plains Wind Farm
NextEra Energy Resources
$300M Completed
Simpson Strong-Tie Manufacturing Expansion
Simpson Strong-Tie
$110M Under Construction
Shoals Technologies Expansion
Shoals Technologies
$80M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +5.0% 83 percentile
Population Growth +2.0% 89 percentile
Income Growth +11.4% 92 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.3% 33 percentile
Home Price Change +0.5% 37 percentile
Rent Growth +2.3% 38 percentile
Price/Rent 17x 19 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Sumner County, TN a good place to move to?

At 25/100, Sumner County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 996 counties we track. Median income of $81,883 combined with job growth of +2.6% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Sumner County affordable?

Sumner County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $332,700 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.25 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,245/month on average.

Is Sumner County growing or shrinking?

Sumner County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +2.0% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +2.6% clip. Home values shifted +0.5% in the past year.

Are people moving to Sumner County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 4.21% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Sumner County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Maury County, TN 25 Knox County, TN 25 Williamson County, TN 26 Wilson County, TN 27 Putnam County, TN 27 Loudon County, TN 23 Yolo County, CA 25 Baldwin County, AL 25