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Knox County, TN

RANK #907 / 1001 NAT  ·  #31 / 33 TN  ·  POP 494,148

1YR FORECAST: -1.0%

5YR OUTLOOK: +18%

Our model projects Knox County's housing market at -1.0% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Knox County?

Knox County, Tennessee, stands out for its connection to the Great Smoky Mountains and its urban wilderness, offering over 60 miles of trails for hiking, biking, and paddling within the city of Knoxville. The county seat, Knoxville, sits at the geographical center of the Great Valley of East Tennessee, where the Holston and French Broad rivers converge to form the Tennessee River. Commuting within Knox County is primarily car-dependent, though Knoxville Area Transit (KAT) provides bus and trolley services within the city and to the university area. The community offers a blend of urban amenities and access to natural scenery.

Life in Knox County balances urban living with outdoor access, appealing to families and outdoor enthusiasts. The public school system, Knox County Schools, serves approximately 60,000 students and offers a range of options including traditional, magnet, and career/technical schools. The local economy has experienced growth, particularly since 2021, with major investment flowing into commercial and residential development, as well as energy-related sectors. The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, also contributes significantly to the local economy and cultural landscape.

MARKET PROFILE

Idiosyncratic Markets

Knox County's data profile doesn't fit any single market profile cleanly — its housing, labor, and demographic signals pull in different directions (home prices +0.9% YoY, population +1.4%, wages +3.4%). About 414 U.S. counties show this kind of mixed-signal pattern.

See all 414 Idiosyncratic Markets counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
9.0x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
+0.9%

Below national median

Climate & Terrain
0.6

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
15x

Below national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 9.0x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Covenant Health Healthcare
    10,000+
  2. 2
    Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) Energy
  3. 3
    The University of Tennessee, Knoxville Education
    5,000+
  4. 4
    Knox County Schools Education
  5. 5
    Walmart Retail
  6. 6
    University Health System (UT Medical Center) Healthcare
  7. 7
    DENSO Manufacturing Tennessee Manufacturing
  8. 8
    K-VA-T Food Stores (Food City) Retail
    2,500+
  9. 9
    State of Tennessee (regional offices) Government
  10. 10
    Knox County Government Government

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Knox County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
494,148
+1.38% YoY
Median Household Income
$74,222
Median Home Value
$320,900
+0.89% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,261
Average Annual Pay
$67,286
+3.4% YoY
Employment
262,423
+0.8% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2313
Near national average
Migration Inflow
2.98%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
41.0%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$405,000
Days on Market
50
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
3.3
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
99.0%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
23.3%
Listings w/ Price Drops
24.7%
Building Permits (2025)
5,013
Single-Family Permits
2,566

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
7.0
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
17.5
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
140.3
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Near national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

C+
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
51.0
Moderate
Good Air Days
46%
500 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
9
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
52
2022
49
2023
52
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$291M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
KUB/TVA/Origis Energy Solar Investment (Knoxville's Share)
Knoxville Utilities Board, Tennessee Valley Authority, Origis Energy
$125M Under Construction
Livano Knoxville Apartments
Capital Square / LIV Development
$116M Planned
Advance Knox Transportation Infrastructure Improvements
Knox County
$50M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +1.4% 77 percentile
Income Growth +3.6% 70 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.3% 29 percentile
Home Price Change +0.9% 37 percentile
Rent Growth -0.2% 9 percentile
Price/Rent 15x 50 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Knox County, TN a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Knox County scores just 9/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #907 of 1001 counties. Job growth at +0.8% and median household income of $74,222 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Knox County affordable?

Knox County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $320,900 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.23 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,261/month on average.

Is Knox County growing or shrinking?

Knox County's population is growing — up +1.4% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of +0.8%). Home values shifted +0.9% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.

Are people moving to Knox County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 2.98% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Knox County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Hawkins County, TN 11 Robertson County, TN 12 Maury County, TN 6 Shelby County, TN 15 Davidson County, TN 1 Putnam County, TN 18 Stanislaus County, CA 9 Monterey County, CA 10