29 / 100

Dauphin County, PA

Lower Paxton

RANK #700 / 996 NAT  ·  #35 / 44 PA  ·  POP 286,108

1YR FORECAST: +1.1%

5YR OUTLOOK: +19%

Our model projects Dauphin County's housing market at +1.1% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Dauphin County?

Dauphin County, Pennsylvania, is perhaps best known as home to Hershey, "The Sweetest Place on Earth," offering attractions like Hersheypark and Hershey Gardens. Located in south-central Pennsylvania, with Harrisburg as its county seat and state capital, the county borders the Susquehanna River to the west. Commuting options include public bus services and a regional program promoting carpooling, vanpooling, biking, and walking. The landscape transitions from urban centers to serene suburbs and farming communities, backed by rolling fields, waterways, and the Appalachian Mountains. Outdoor recreation is supported by numerous county parks, including Wildwood Park and Detweiler Park, offering trails for hiking and opportunities for birdwatching.

Life in Dauphin County offers a mix of urban and rural experiences, attracting families and young professionals. Public schools in the county are generally rated above average, with districts like Derry Township and Central Dauphin recognized. The economy, historically rooted in manufacturing, is diversifying. While government and tourism remain significant, there is growth in sectors such as data centers, energy, and industrial logistics, supported by the county's access to major highways and a skilled workforce. The county actively supports economic development through various programs and initiatives for businesses.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
2.6x

Undervalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+1.0%

Well below national median

Home Prices
+3.5%

Outpacing national median

Climate & Terrain
1.1

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
13x

Below national median (13x)

Housing looks undervalued at 2.6x — home prices are low relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Pennsylvania State Government Government
  2. 2
    Milton S. Hershey Medical Center Healthcare
  3. 3
    Hershey Entertainment & Resorts Co. Hospitality
  4. 4
    UPMC Pinnacle Hospitals Healthcare
  5. 5
    The Hershey Company Manufacturing
  6. 6
    United Parcel Service Inc. Logistics
  7. 7
    Federal Government Government
  8. 8
    Penn State Health Healthcare
  9. 9
    Pennsylvania State University Education
  10. 10
    Milton Hershey School Education

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Dauphin County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
286,108
+0.67% YoY
Median Household Income
$71,046
Median Home Value
$208,200
+3.46% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,090
Average Annual Pay
$68,012
+2.8% YoY
Employment
190,296
+1.3% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.3412
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
3.93%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
33.3%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$265,500
Days on Market
28
Active market
Months of Supply
1.9
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
99.1%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
29.8%
Listings w/ Price Drops
30.6%
Building Permits (2024)
499
Single-Family Permits
287

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
7.2
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
12.2
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
91.0
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Near national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

C+
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
50.7
Moderate
Good Air Days
48%
522 of 1,089 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
17
Includes 2 Very Unhealthy
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
52
2022
48
2023
52
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$2,900M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
UPS East Zone Regional Hub
UPS
$1,400M Operating
Three Mile Island Nuclear Station Unit 1 License Extension & Restart
Constellation Energy Corp
$1,000M Proposed
Dauphin Highlands Golf Course Data Center
Harrisburg I, LLC (Provident Realty Advisors)
$500M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +1.0% 18 percentile
Population Growth +0.7% 60 percentile
Income Growth +6.9% 16 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.3% 35 percentile
Home Price Change +3.5% 76 percentile
Rent Growth +2.9% 47 percentile
Price/Rent 13x 57 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Dauphin County, PA a good place to move to?

At 29/100, Dauphin County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 996 counties we track. Median income of $71,046 combined with job growth of +1.3% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Dauphin County affordable?

Housing in Dauphin County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $208,200 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.34, with rents averaging $1,090/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Dauphin County growing or shrinking?

Dauphin County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +0.7% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +1.3% clip — and home values reflect that momentum, rising +3.5% over the past 12 months.

Are people moving to Dauphin County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.93% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Dauphin County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Northampton County, PA 30 Berks County, PA 31 Luzerne County, PA 31 Venango County, PA 33 Cumberland County, PA 33 Philadelphia County, PA 35 Shelby County, AL 29 Benton County, WA 29