20 / 100

St. Johns County, FL

St. Augustine

RANK #791 / 996 NAT  ·  #22 / 41 FL  ·  POP 278,722

1YR FORECAST: -0.8%

5YR OUTLOOK: +16%

#4 Fastest Growing
Our model projects St. Johns County's housing market at -0.8% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why St. Johns County?

St. Johns County, Florida, is perhaps best known for St. Augustine, the nation's oldest continuously inhabited European-established settlement, with its historic district, cobblestone streets, and landmarks like the Castillo de San Marcos. Located on Florida's northeast Atlantic coast, just south of Jacksonville, the county offers a blend of historic charm and coastal living. Commuting to Jacksonville is feasible, with express bus services available. The community offers a relaxed, outdoor-focused lifestyle with access to 42 miles of beaches, the St. Johns River, and numerous parks and preserves like Anastasia State Park and the Guana Tolomato Matanzas National Estuarine Research Reserve, providing opportunities for kayaking, hiking, and birdwatching.

Life in St. Johns County often appeals to families and retirees, drawn by the highly-rated public school system and a variety of communities, including master-planned developments like Nocatee and coastal towns such as Ponte Vedra Beach. The economy is experiencing growth, with significant investment in residential and commercial development, as well as infrastructure. This expansion is supported by a growing workforce and a focus on sectors such as advanced manufacturing, health sciences, and business services. While the county has seen rapid population growth, efforts are underway to manage this expansion while preserving its natural environment.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
8.0x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+3.8%

Above national median

Home Prices
-3.5%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
3.0

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
16x

Above national median (13x)

Housing looks overvalued at 8.0x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    St. Johns County School District Education
    5,000+
  2. 2
    UF Health St. Johns Healthcare
    1,000+
  3. 3
    St. Johns County Government Government
  4. 4
    Northrop Grumman Manufacturing
  5. 5
    PGA TOUR, Inc. Hospitality
    500+
  6. 6
    Florida National Guard Headquarters Military
  7. 7
    St. Johns County Sheriff's Office Government
  8. 8
    Florida School for the Deaf & Blind Education
  9. 9
    Carlisle Interconnect Technologies Manufacturing
  10. 10
    Ring Power Corporation Other

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

St. Johns County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
278,722
+4.89% YoY
Median Household Income
$100,020
Median Home Value
$416,100
-3.5% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,601
Average Annual Pay
$60,008
+1.8% YoY
Employment
98,819
+2.9% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2404
Near national average
Migration Inflow
3.74%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
47.4%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$480,000
Days on Market
94
Slower market
Months of Supply
4.8
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.4%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
8.6%
Listings w/ Price Drops
24.5%
Building Permits (2024)
5,575
Single-Family Permits
4,915

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
2.9
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
10.7
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
68.2
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Capital Investment

$2,445M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
SilverLeaf Master-Planned Community
Various Developers
$1,000M Under Construction
St. Johns County Infrastructure Program
St. Johns County
$820M Under Construction
"Agrihood" Community Development
Robinson Improvement Co. (Freehold Communities)
$500M Proposed
Amazon Last-Mile Distribution Center
Amazon
$50M Operating
Broward's Corner Mixed-Use Redevelopment
Local Owners behind Broward's Liquor
$50M Proposed
County Road 16 Widening and Improvements
St. Johns County
$25M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +3.8% 69 percentile
Population Growth +4.9% 100 percentile
Income Growth +12.6% 97 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.2% 36 percentile
Home Price Change -3.5% 7 percentile
Rent Growth +0.6% 15 percentile
Price/Rent 16x 23 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is St. Johns County, FL a good place to move to?

At 20/100, St. Johns County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 996 counties we track. Median income of $100,020 combined with job growth of +2.9% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is St. Johns County affordable?

St. Johns County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $416,100 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.24 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,601/month on average.

Is St. Johns County growing or shrinking?

St. Johns County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +4.9% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +2.9% clip. Home values shifted -3.5% in the past year.

Are people moving to St. Johns County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.74% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests St. Johns County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

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