RANK #646 / 1001 NAT · #26 / 43 CA · POP 437,613
1YR FORECAST: +1.4%
5YR OUTLOOK: +16%
Carmel-by-the-Sea, a notable town within Monterey County, offers a distinctive charm with its fairytale-like cottages and strict building codes that maintain its village aesthetic. Located on California's central coast, Monterey County is about a two-hour drive south of San Francisco and Silicon Valley. The community offers a relaxed atmosphere with a mild climate, making outdoor recreation a year-round possibility. Residents and visitors enjoy diverse natural scenery, from the rugged Big Sur coastline to the fertile Salinas Valley. Opportunities for outdoor activities include hiking in Pinnacles National Park or Fort Ord National Monument, biking along the Monterey Bay Coastal Recreation Trail, kayaking in the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary, and golfing on courses like Pebble Beach.
Life in Monterey County blends coastal living with agricultural roots. While some residents commute to the Bay Area, particularly from towns like Salinas and Prunedale, many find work within the county. The economy is largely driven by its productive agricultural sector in the Salinas Valley and a robust tourism industry along the coast. Recent economic developments also show growth in specialized business services and technology, including an emerging robotics and drone sector, alongside continued investment in food and beverage manufacturing, particularly winemaking. The county also has a strong concentration of higher education and research institutions.
Monterey County is one of 78 U.S. counties in this market profile — stronger than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of +0.9% runs above the profile's typical -0.8%.
See all 78 Western Premium Correction counties →Overvalued relative to economy
Well below national median
Prices detached from rents
Housing looks overvalued at 27.1x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.
Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.
Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).
Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →
Source: Homicide rates from CDC/NCHS vital-statistics mortality data — a multi-year average that stabilizes counts in smaller counties — compiled in the County Health Rankings 2025 release. Rates per 100,000 population; U.S. average ≈ 6.5. Grade reflects homicide rate relative to the national average. Learn more →
See where Monterey County stands nationally: safest large counties in America · highest homicide-rate counties · counties where safety is improving.
Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →
| PROJECT | AMOUNT | STATUS |
|---|---|---|
|
Holman Wind Project
|
$1,525M | Planned |
|
Moss Landing Energy Storage Facility (Phase III Expansion)
Vistra Corp.
|
$350M | Operating |
|
California Flats Solar Project
Capital Dynamics (originally First Solar)
|
$280M | Operating |
|
California Flats Battery Energy Storage System (BESS)
Apple Inc. / Tesla
|
$240M | Operating |
|
PG&E East Campus Gas Line Replacement Project
Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E)
|
$50M | Under Construction |
|
Highway 156 & Castroville Blvd. Interchange Project
California Department of Transportation (Caltrans)
|
$50M | Proposed |
Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.
Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.
At 35/100, Monterey County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 1001 counties we track. Median income of $97,230 combined with job growth of -0.9% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.
Affordability is a real challenge in Monterey County. The median home is valued at $781,000 — with an income-to-home-value ratio of just 0.12, that's significantly harder to afford than in most U.S. counties. Median rent runs $2,055/month.
Population and employment in Monterey County are both close to flat — population +0.4% YoY and jobs -0.9%. Home values shifted +0.9% over the past 12 months. A steady-state county, neither expanding quickly nor shrinking.
There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 2.73% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Monterey County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.