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Monterey County, CA

Salinas

RANK #871 / 996 NAT  ·  #29 / 43 CA  ·  POP 437,609

1YR FORECAST: -0.2%

5YR OUTLOOK: +13%

#8 Best Climate & Terrain #49 Most Overvalued
Our model projects Monterey County's housing market at -0.2% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Monterey County?

Carmel-by-the-Sea, a notable town within Monterey County, offers a distinctive charm with its fairytale-like cottages and strict building codes that maintain its village aesthetic. Located on California's central coast, Monterey County is about a two-hour drive south of San Francisco and Silicon Valley. The community offers a relaxed atmosphere with a mild climate, making outdoor recreation a year-round possibility. Residents and visitors enjoy diverse natural scenery, from the rugged Big Sur coastline to the fertile Salinas Valley. Opportunities for outdoor activities include hiking in Pinnacles National Park or Fort Ord National Monument, biking along the Monterey Bay Coastal Recreation Trail, kayaking in the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary, and golfing on courses like Pebble Beach.

Life in Monterey County blends coastal living with agricultural roots. While some residents commute to the Bay Area, particularly from towns like Salinas and Prunedale, many find work within the county. The economy is largely driven by its productive agricultural sector in the Salinas Valley and a robust tourism industry along the coast. Recent economic developments also show growth in specialized business services and technology, including an emerging robotics and drone sector, alongside continued investment in food and beverage manufacturing, particularly winemaking. The county also has a strong concentration of higher education and research institutions.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
10.1x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+2.0%

Below national median

Home Prices
-2.1%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
9.2

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
20x

Prices detached from rents

Housing looks overvalued at 10.1x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Agriculture Industry (various employers) Agriculture
    50,000+
  2. 2
    Government (County, State, Federal, and Military) Government
    25,000+
  3. 3
    Healthcare and Social Assistance Healthcare
    10,000+
  4. 4
    Accommodation and Food Services Hospitality
  5. 5
    Educational Services (various employers including school districts and universities) Education
  6. 6
    Retail Trade Retail
  7. 7
    Professional & Business Services Other
  8. 8
    Manufacturing Manufacturing
    5,000+
  9. 9
    Wholesale Trade Logistics
  10. 10
    Financial Activities Finance
    2,500+

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Monterey County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
437,609
-0.31% YoY
Median Household Income
$91,043
Median Home Value
$683,700
-2.11% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,873
Average Annual Pay
$61,375
+3.1% YoY
Employment
200,244
+1.7% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1332
Less affordable than average
Migration Inflow
3.24%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
27.1%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$837,500
Days on Market
44
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
3.0
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.4%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
23.3%
Listings w/ Price Drops
22.6%
Building Permits (2024)
677
Single-Family Permits
512

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
7.4
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
8.5
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
62.2
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Above national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
40.7
Good
Good Air Days
76%
834 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
1
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
41
2022
39
2023
42
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$2,495M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Holman Wind Project
$1,525M Planned
Moss Landing Energy Storage Facility (Phase III Expansion)
Vistra Corp.
$350M Operating
California Flats Solar Project
Capital Dynamics (originally First Solar)
$280M Operating
California Flats Battery Energy Storage System (BESS)
Apple Inc. / Tesla
$240M Operating
PG&E East Campus Gas Line Replacement Project
Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E)
$50M Under Construction
Highway 156 & Castroville Blvd. Interchange Project
California Department of Transportation (Caltrans)
$50M Proposed

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +2.0% 36 percentile
Population Growth -0.3% 16 percentile
Income Growth +11.0% 90 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.8% 79 percentile
Home Price Change -2.1% 14 percentile
Rent Growth +1.1% 21 percentile
Price/Rent 20x 8 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Monterey County, CA a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Monterey County scores just 12/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #871 of 996 counties. Job growth at +1.7% and median household income of $91,043 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Monterey County affordable?

Affordability is a real challenge in Monterey County. The median home is valued at $683,700 — with an income-to-home-value ratio of just 0.13, that's significantly harder to afford than in most U.S. counties. Median rent runs $1,873/month.

Is Monterey County growing or shrinking?

Employers in Monterey County are hiring — job growth of +1.7% — but the population is close to flat (-0.3% YoY). Home values moved -2.1% over the past year. Labor demand is outpacing local population growth, which tends to tighten wages and housing.

Are people moving to Monterey County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.24% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Monterey County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

San Francisco County, CA 13 San Luis Obispo County, CA 11 Solano County, CA 14 Stanislaus County, CA 10 Nevada County, CA 10 Los Angeles County, CA 15 Anne Arundel County, MD 12 Greenville County, SC 11