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San Luis Obispo County, CA

Arroyo Grande

RANK #879 / 996 NAT  ·  #30 / 43 CA  ·  POP 281,712

1YR FORECAST: +0.2%

5YR OUTLOOK: +13%

#15 Best Climate & Terrain #39 Most Overvalued
Our model projects San Luis Obispo County's housing market at +0.2% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why San Luis Obispo County?

The iconic Morro Rock, a volcanic plug rising from the Pacific, marks a distinctive feature of San Luis Obispo County, situated on California's Central Coast. The county lies roughly halfway between Los Angeles and San Francisco, offering a slower pace of life compared to these major cities. Commuting within the county is facilitated by regional transit options and major highways, with travel between vineyards and beaches possible in under an hour. The region boasts a Mediterranean climate with abundant sunshine, supporting a wide array of outdoor recreation including hiking trails at Montaña de Oro State Park, kayaking in Morro Bay, and exploring numerous beaches like Pismo Beach and Avila Beach.

Life in San Luis Obispo County often appeals to those seeking a balance of natural beauty and community engagement. The area is home to California Polytechnic State University (Cal Poly) and Cuesta College, contributing to a vibrant academic environment and drawing students and professionals. Public schools in the county are highly rated. The economy is diverse, with significant contributions from agriculture, particularly wine production, and a growing tourism sector. Recent economic developments also show investment in sectors such as clean technology and renewable energy, alongside ongoing efforts to support local businesses and address regional planning for housing and transportation.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
10.8x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+4.6%

Well above national median

Home Prices
+1.2%

Below national median

Climate & Terrain
7.9

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
20x

Above national median (13x)

Housing looks overvalued at 10.8x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    UnitedHealth Group Healthcare
    10,000+
  2. 2
    County of San Luis Obispo Government
    2,500+
  3. 3
    California Polytechnic State University Education
  4. 4
    Department of State Hospitals-Atascadero Healthcare
    1,000+
  5. 5
    Pacific Gas & Electric Energy
  6. 6
    California Men's Colony Government
  7. 7
    Cal Poly Corp. Other
  8. 8
    Tenet Healthcare Healthcare
  9. 9
    Compass Health Inc. Healthcare
  10. 10
    Lucia Mar Unified School District Education

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

San Luis Obispo County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
281,712
-0.37% YoY
Median Household Income
$90,158
Median Home Value
$726,700
+1.16% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,800
Average Annual Pay
$61,334
+2.7% YoY
Employment
121,958
+1.3% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1241
Less affordable than average
Migration Inflow
6.41%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
38.0%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$960,000
Days on Market
57
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
3.5
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.2%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
27.1%
Listings w/ Price Drops
21.8%
Building Permits (2024)
1,104
Single-Family Permits
821

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

A
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
1.8
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
9.0
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
72.5
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

C+
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
51.7
Moderate
Good Air Days
44%
478 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
17
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
53
2022
55
2023
47
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$3,565M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Topaz Solar Farm
BHE Renewables (Berkshire Hathaway Energy), First Solar
$2,440M Operating
Vistra Morro Bay Battery Energy Storage System (BESS)
Vistra
$600M Proposed
Offshore Wind Farms (Morro Bay Wind Energy Area)
Atlas Wind (Equinor), Golden State Wind (Ocean Winds), Even Keel Wind (Invenergy)
$425M Planned
Caballero Battery Energy Storage System (BESS)
Alpha Omega Power (AOP), Fengate Asset Management
$100M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +4.6% 80 percentile
Population Growth -0.4% 14 percentile
Income Growth +9.3% 68 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.4% 24 percentile
Home Price Change +1.2% 48 percentile
Rent Growth +3.1% 53 percentile
Price/Rent 20x 8 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is San Luis Obispo County, CA a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — San Luis Obispo County scores just 11/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #879 of 996 counties. Job growth at +1.3% and median household income of $90,158 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is San Luis Obispo County affordable?

Affordability is a real challenge in San Luis Obispo County. The median home is valued at $726,700 — with an income-to-home-value ratio of just 0.12, that's significantly harder to afford than in most U.S. counties. Median rent runs $1,800/month.

Is San Luis Obispo County growing or shrinking?

Employers in San Luis Obispo County are hiring — job growth of +1.3% — but the population is close to flat (-0.4% YoY). Home values moved +1.2% over the past year. Labor demand is outpacing local population growth, which tends to tighten wages and housing.

Are people moving to San Luis Obispo County?

In significant numbers — 6.41% of San Luis Obispo County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

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