20 / 100

Tuolumne County, CA

Sonora

RANK #789 / 996 NAT  ·  #20 / 43 CA  ·  POP 54,993

1YR FORECAST: -1.4%

5YR OUTLOOK: +16%

#22 Best Climate & Terrain
Our model projects Tuolumne County's housing market at -1.4% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Tuolumne County?

Columbia State Historic Park, a preserved Gold Rush town where visitors can pan for gold, stands as a distinctive landmark in Tuolumne County, California. Located in the Sierra Nevada foothills, about a two-to-three-hour drive east of the San Francisco Bay Area, the county offers a blend of historic charm and natural beauty. Its community feel is often described as quiet and laid-back, with neighbors knowing each other. Outdoor recreation is a major draw, with year-round opportunities for hiking, biking, boating, fishing, skiing, and snowshoeing across the Stanislaus National Forest, numerous lakes like Pinecrest Lake, and over half of Yosemite National Park. Life in Tuolumne County appeals to both retirees and those seeking a connection to nature. Public transportation, primarily bus routes, connects towns within the county, with limited interregional options. The local economy is heavily reliant on tourism, which drives job growth in the leisure and hospitality sector. Other sectors contributing to employment include healthcare, government, and retail. The Tuolumne County Superintendent of Schools partners with local schools to support education for over 5,000 students.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
8.1x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
-3.0%

Contracting economy

Home Prices
-4.4%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
7.1

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
28x

Speculative pricing

Housing looks overvalued at 8.1x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Health Care & Social Assistance (various employers) Healthcare
    2,500+
  2. 2
    Public Administration (Tuolumne County Government and other public entities) Government
    1,000+
  3. 3
    Retail Trade (various employers) Retail
  4. 4
    Black Oak Casino Resort Hospitality
    500+
  5. 5
    CAL FIRE Government
    100+
  6. 6
    Tuolumne Me-Wuk Indian Health Center, Inc. Healthcare
    51
  7. 7
    Columbia College Education
  8. 8
    Sierra Pacific Industries Manufacturing

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Tuolumne County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
54,993
-0.45% YoY
Median Household Income
$70,432
Median Home Value
$377,700
-4.44% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,129
Average Annual Pay
$58,725
+4.2% YoY
Employment
18,221
+4.8% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1865
Near national average
Migration Inflow
6.55%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
24.4%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$355,000
Days on Market
97
Slower market
Months of Supply
5.9
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
96.1%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
14.3%
Listings w/ Price Drops
15.9%
Building Permits (2024)
62
Single-Family Permits
62

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
2.6
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
12.4
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
100.8
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
41.0
Good
Good Air Days
85%
769 of 900 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
5
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
41
2022
39
2023
43
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$100M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Woody Pellet Biomass Facility (Chinese Camp)
Golden State Natural Resources
$50M Proposed
Westside Subdivision
Tuolumne Economic Development Authority, Inc. (TEDA)
$50M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth -3.0% 2 percentile
Population Growth -0.5% 12 percentile
Income Growth +5.4% 5 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.0% 58 percentile
Home Price Change -4.4% 4 percentile
Price/Rent 28x 1 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Tuolumne County, CA a good place to move to?

At 20/100, Tuolumne County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 996 counties we track. Median income of $70,432 combined with job growth of +4.8% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Tuolumne County affordable?

Tuolumne County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $377,700 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.19 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,129/month on average.

Is Tuolumne County growing or shrinking?

Employers in Tuolumne County are hiring — job growth of +4.8% — but the population is close to flat (-0.5% YoY). Home values moved -4.4% over the past year. Labor demand is outpacing local population growth, which tends to tighten wages and housing.

Are people moving to Tuolumne County?

In significant numbers — 6.55% of Tuolumne County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Sutter County, CA 18 San Joaquin County, CA 23 Shasta County, CA 17 Placer County, CA 24 Alameda County, CA 25 Yolo County, CA 25 Cumberland County, TN 20 Maverick County, TX 19