43 counties · Boom Town Index

California

Avg BTI Score
24 / 100
Population
39.0M
National Rank
#45 of 51

State Overview

California's economy in 2025-2026 is experiencing a bifurcated trend, with high-productivity sectors like artificial intelligence and aerospace expanding, while areas such as construction, non-durable goods, leisure, hospitality, and government-funded services face challenges. The state's economic growth is projected to outpace the national average in 2025, driven by AI investment and strong consumer spending from high-income households. However, this growth is accompanied by slow job creation and an elevated unemployment rate, expected to remain around 5.5% in early 2026.

The housing market continues to grapple with affordability issues, despite a projected slowdown in price growth. The median home price is forecast to rise to $873,900 in 2025 and $905,000 in 2026, a more moderate pace compared to previous years. Migration data from U-Haul indicates California remains a top outbound state for the sixth consecutive year in 2025, with many residents citing high living and housing costs as reasons for leaving. However, some regions like San Diego County have seen population growth, particularly within the city of San Diego, due to increased housing development.

Median Household Income
$84,010
State median across 43 counties
Median Home Value
$549,100
Income-to-home ratio: 0.17
Building Permits
100,661
Total residential permits
Natural Amenity
10.0 / 10
#1 of 49 · USDA scale

California Counties

43 counties
Rank County BTI Score Safety Proj. Growth GDP Pop Growth Income Ratio Home Price Climate P/R
01 Tehama County 72 C +2.7% +0.1% +0.2% +11.6% 8.7x +1.0% 3.2 18x
02 Imperial County 67 C+ +4.7% +0.1% -0.3% +9.7% 4.6x +6.8% 6.5 13x
03 Kings County 63 C +1.7% +4.0% +0.4% +8.3% 6.0x +2.1% 3.5 13x
04 San Bernardino County 57 C +0.3% +3.5% +0.4% +10.2% 9.1x -1.9% 3.6 15x
05 Tulare County 55 C +1.6% +4.9% +0.5% +12.3% 6.8x +0.8% 5.7 14x
06 Madera County 51 C +1.9% +8.0% +0.6% +10.2% 7.9x +1.0% 6.0 13x
07 Kern County 49 D +0.3% +4.6% +0.1% +8.6% 5.2x -0.5% 4.8 13x
08 Fresno County 49 D -0.1% +4.2% +0.5% +10.6% 6.8x +0.3% 6.0 15x
09 Merced County 43 C -0.0% +7.9% +1.1% +10.0% 9.4x -1.9% 4.5 15x
10 San Benito County 40 B- -0.1% +7.6% +2.2% +9.2% 18.1x -1.3% 5.2 21x
11 Yuba County 35 C -0.0% +1.2% +1.6% +6.4% 8.1x -2.9% 5.0 15x
12 Butte County 33 B -0.4% +6.4% -2.0% +10.4% 8.0x +0.7% 5.1 19x
13 El Dorado County 30 B+ -0.7% +1.2% +0.6% +11.8% 12.7x -1.3% 6.1 20x
14 Sacramento County 28 C -0.0% +4.3% +0.5% +9.9% 6.9x -2.7% 3.6 18x
15 Riverside County 26 B- +0.0% +3.3% +0.8% +11.1% 11.0x -2.0% 6.6 15x
16 Alameda County 25 C -1.2% +1.0% -0.6% +9.3% 11.2x -5.1% 5.1 30x
17 Yolo County 25 B+ +0.2% +3.1% +0.2% +8.6% 7.6x -1.7% 5.1 20x
18 Placer County 24 A +0.1% +2.3% +1.6% +9.7% 9.5x -1.3% 6.0 21x
19 San Joaquin County 23 D -0.0% +5.7% +1.0% +10.5% 10.3x -4.2% 4.8 16x
20 Tuolumne County 20 B+ -1.4% -3.0% -0.5% +5.4% 8.1x -4.4% 7.1 28x
21 Sutter County 18 C+ -1.4% +0.6% +0.0% +8.4% 9.2x -0.6% 1.7 17x
22 Shasta County 17 C+ +0.1% +5.5% -0.1% +10.3% 6.5x -1.4% 5.7 17x
23 Los Angeles County 15 C -0.3% +2.1% -0.8% +9.2% 9.0x -1.1% 10.3 22x
24 Santa Cruz County 15 B +0.6% +3.4% -1.3% +8.7% 15.3x +1.0% 8.5 24x
25 Marin County 15 A +0.8% +1.8% -0.7% +8.4% 11.3x +0.1% 8.1 30x
26 Orange County 15 B+ +2.6% +2.3% -0.2% +8.8% 9.9x +0.1% 8.7 23x
27 Solano County 14 C -0.5% +6.0% -0.1% +8.2% 8.3x -3.1% 5.9 19x
28 San Francisco County 13 B- +6.4% +0.9% -1.7% +8.3% 4.9x +4.0% 10.5 29x
29 Monterey County 12 C -0.2% +2.0% -0.3% +11.0% 10.1x -2.1% 9.2 20x
30 San Luis Obispo County 11 A +0.2% +4.6% -0.4% +9.3% 10.8x +1.2% 7.9 20x
31 Stanislaus County 10 B +0.4% +5.3% +0.2% +9.5% 8.8x -0.9% 7.2 16x
32 Nevada County 10 B -1.0% +3.8% +0.2% +6.4% 11.9x -1.6% 7.3 19x
33 Sonoma County 9 B+ -0.5% +0.8% -0.8% +8.4% 11.8x -2.5% 7.9 24x
34 Mendocino County 8 C -1.2% +3.1% -0.4% +8.8% 11.8x -2.0% 10.9 19x
35 San Diego County 7 B+ -0.3% +2.1% -0.2% +9.9% 8.9x -2.1% 9.8 21x
36 Contra Costa County 4 C+ -0.5% +1.1% +0.1% +8.7% 11.9x -4.3% 8.4 24x
37 Santa Clara County 3 B+ +1.2% +6.1% -0.8% +9.7% 6.3x -1.6% 6.0 32x
38 Lake County 3 D -1.9% +6.0% +0.4% +5.4% 9.5x -3.6% 6.5 15x
39 Ventura County 2 B -0.5% +3.6% -0.4% +8.5% 11.0x -1.1% 11.2 20x
40 San Mateo County 2 B+ -0.5% +9.7% -1.1% +9.6% 5.5x +0.0% 8.2 34x
41 Humboldt County 1 C -3.5% +4.3% -0.6% +8.5% 9.0x -4.3% 11.2 22x
42 Santa Barbara County 1 B +0.7% +4.4% -0.5% +9.5% 9.5x +0.6% 11.0 18x
43 Napa County 1 A -2.3% +0.8% -1.0% +8.5% 9.6x -3.7% 7.5 24x

Capital Investment in California

Tracked Projects · Public Records
$198.7B
Total tracked investment
82,670
Jobs announced
191
Projects across 38 counties

Where the money is going

Infrastructure $72.5B 36%
Commercial/Residential $64.5B 32%
Energy $39.3B 20%
Data Centers $20.2B 10%
Healthcare $1.3B 1%

Top counties by investment

  1. 01 San Francisco County $53.0B
    5 projects
  2. 02 Solano County $50.3B
    6 projects · 53,200 jobs
  3. 03 Imperial County $18.1B
    6 projects · 1,600 jobs
  4. 04 Santa Clara County $13.8B
    6 projects
  5. 05 San Diego County $8.0B
    6 projects
  6. 06 Kern County $6.0B
    6 projects · 2,200 jobs

Largest projects in California

Project County Amount Status
City and County of San Francisco Capital Plan (Various Infrastructure Projects)
City and County of San Francisco · Infrastructure
 San Francisco County $52.1B Planned
California Forever (New City, Manufacturing & Shipyard)
Flannery Associates · Commercial/Residential · 53,000 jobs
 Solano County $49.0B Proposed
Santa Clara Valley Water District Capital Improvement Program
Santa Clara Valley Water District · Infrastructure
 Santa Clara County $10.4B Planned
Imperial Data Center (Aten and Clark roads)
Imperial Valley Computer Manufacturing (IVCM) · Data Centers · 1,600 jobs
 Imperial County $10.0B Proposed
CalEthos Data Center Complex
CalEthos · Data Centers
 Imperial County $5.5B Proposed
San Diego International Airport Terminal 1 Expansion
San Diego County Regional Airport Authority · Infrastructure
 San Diego County $3.8B Under Construction
Seaport San Diego
Undisclosed (Developer Group) · Commercial/Residential
 San Diego County $3.6B Under Construction
Darden Clean Energy Project
IP Darden I, LLC (subsidiary of Intersect Power) · Energy · 1,200 jobs
 Fresno County $2.5B Under Construction
→ Methodology · How We Tracked $4T Across 858 Counties

Source: public records, corporate announcements, state EDC filings. Tracking projects with $25M+ in announced investment or 500+ jobs. Some figures are estimates where exact totals weren't disclosed.

California shaded relief terrain map
SRTM 30m shaded relief
State Spotlight · 2026-04-29

California's economy splits as AI drives growth, residents exit

What's driving growth

The artificial intelligence and aerospace industries are fueling economic expansion in California. Investment in AI infrastructure and robust consumer spending from high-income households contribute to the state's economic performance. California continues to lead in high-growth sectors, including clean energy and advanced manufacturing.

Housing market right now

California's median home price is projected to increase by 1.0% to $873,900 in 2025 and then by 3.6% to $905,000 in 2026. Affordability remains a concern, with payments for a mid-tier home exceeding $5,500 a month in September 2025. Housing sales saw modest gains in 2025, with a more balanced market anticipated for 2026 due to easing price growth and falling mortgage rates.

Migration patterns

California was the top outbound state in 2025 for the sixth consecutive year, according to U-Haul data. High living and housing costs in cities like Los Angeles are primary drivers for residents relocating. Despite overall out-migration, San Diego County, particularly the city of San Diego, experienced population growth between 2022 and 2025, partly due to increased housing construction.

Headwinds

Construction, non-durable goods, leisure, hospitality, and government-funded services face significant challenges. The state's unemployment rate is expected to remain elevated in early 2026, around 5.5%. New tariffs imposed in 2025 contributed to inflation and slowed real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Key facts

  • California's median home price is forecast to reach $909,400 in 2025. (California Association of Realtors, 2025)
  • The California median home price is forecast to rise 3.6 percent to $905,000 in 2026. (California Association of Realtors, September 2025)
  • California's unemployment rate is expected to remain around 5.5% in early 2026. (UCLA Anderson School of Management, January 2026)
  • California was the top outbound state for U-Haul customers in 2025 for the sixth consecutive year. (U-Haul, January 2026)
  • New state laws taking effect in 2026 include expanded employer obligations, increased minimum wage to $16.90 an hour, and new AI-in-hiring rules. (CDF Labor Law LLP, December 2025; Alston & Bird, November 2025; California Civil Rights Department, October 2025)
Updated 2026-04-29 · grounded research
18 sources
  1. californiaforecast.com
  2. pacificresearch.org
  3. labusinessjournal.com
  4. car.org
  5. northamerican.com
  6. youtube.com
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  12. worldpropertyjournal.com
  13. frbsf.org
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  18. alston.com