43 counties · Boom Town Index

California

Avg BTI Score
43 / 100
Population
39.0M
+0.2% avg growth
National Rank
#37 of 51

State Overview

California's economy in 2025-2026 is experiencing a bifurcated trend, with high-productivity sectors like artificial intelligence and aerospace expanding, while areas such as construction, non-durable goods, leisure, hospitality, and government-funded services face challenges. The state's economic growth is projected to outpace the national average in 2025, driven by AI investment and strong consumer spending from high-income households. However, this growth is accompanied by slow job creation and an elevated unemployment rate, expected to remain around 5.5% in early 2026.

The housing market continues to grapple with affordability issues, despite a projected slowdown in price growth. The median home price is forecast to rise to $873,900 in 2025 and $905,000 in 2026, a more moderate pace compared to previous years. Migration data from U-Haul indicates California remains a top outbound state for the sixth consecutive year in 2025, with many residents citing high living and housing costs as reasons for leaving. However, some regions like San Diego County have seen population growth, particularly within the city of San Diego, due to increased housing development.

Median Household Income
$92,175
State median across 43 counties
Median Home Value
$617,700
Income-to-home ratio: 0.16
Building Permits
103,248
Total residential permits
Natural Amenity
10.0 / 10
#1 of 49 · USDA scale

California Counties

43 counties
Rank County BTI Score Safety Proj. Growth GDP Pop Growth Income Ratio Home Price Climate P/R
01 Kings County 88 C +1.7% — +0.3% +3.3% 16.7x +3.1% 3.5 14x
02 Marin County 88 A +1.8% — -0.3% +4.4% 37.2x +4.3% 8.1 32x
03 Imperial County 87 C+ +2.6% — +0.5% +2.3% 14.6x +5.2% 6.5 15x
04 El Dorado County 81 B+ +0.4% — +0.2% +2.5% 32.3x +0.5% 6.1 22x
05 Santa Cruz County 81 B +1.3% — -0.4% +1.7% 37.2x +4.6% 8.5 24x
06 San Benito County 79 B- +1.2% — +1.9% +5.6% 46.7x -0.5% 5.2 23x
07 Merced County 78 C -0.3% — +1.6% +0.7% 23.4x -0.6% 4.5 16x
08 San Bernardino County 73 C -0.1% — +0.4% +4.0% 20.5x +0.6% 3.6 17x
09 Placer County 72 A +0.4% — +1.6% +1.1% 20.2x +0.9% 6.0 22x
10 Yolo County 71 B+ -0.6% — +1.3% +3.3% 15.7x -0.7% 5.1 22x
11 Shasta County 69 C+ +0.0% — -0.1% +1.0% 15.2x -0.1% 5.7 18x
12 Yuba County 66 C -0.9% — +1.7% +4.2% 23.8x -1.2% 5.0 16x
13 Sutter County 66 C+ -0.3% — -0.1% +5.6% 22.7x +0.5% 1.7 17x
14 Sacramento County 64 C -0.7% — +0.6% +3.9% 14.2x -0.9% 3.6 20x
15 Tulare County 64 C +1.5% — +0.6% +2.6% 16.5x +1.7% 5.7 16x
16 Madera County 58 C +0.5% — +1.4% +1.5% 18.8x +1.9% 6.0 16x
17 Solano County 56 C -0.3% — +0.2% +0.4% 26.4x -1.3% 5.9 21x
18 Alameda County 52 C +0.2% — -0.1% +2.5% 22.5x -1.1% 5.1 31x
19 Nevada County 50 B +0.4% — +0.0% +5.9% 28.0x +0.6% 7.3 18x
20 Contra Costa County 46 C+ -0.4% — +0.3% +1.2% 30.9x -1.1% 8.4 25x
21 Kern County 46 D -0.2% — +0.5% +3.8% 14.4x -0.0% 4.8 16x
22 Tehama County 46 C -0.5% — -0.5% +3.1% 18.7x +3.3% 3.2 18x
23 Fresno County 42 D -0.2% — +0.5% +3.9% 15.3x +1.2% 6.0 16x
24 Riverside County 40 B- -0.2% — +1.2% +3.8% 26.7x -0.0% 6.6 18x
25 Butte County 39 B -0.8% — -0.7% -0.9% 18.9x +0.3% 5.1 23x
26 Monterey County 35 C +1.4% — +0.4% +2.9% 27.1x +0.9% 9.2 23x
27 Orange County 34 B+ +1.5% — +0.1% +2.3% 21.6x +2.8% 8.7 25x
28 San Joaquin County 33 D -1.2% — +1.3% +4.1% 22.8x -2.5% 4.8 18x
29 Sonoma County 26 B+ -0.0% — -0.1% +1.8% 26.2x 0.0% 7.9 25x
30 Lake County 24 D -0.8% — +0.0% +3.2% 22.2x -1.4% 6.5 15x
31 Tuolumne County 15 B+ -1.2% — -0.7% +7.1% 21.2x -1.2% 7.1 24x
32 San Mateo County 15 B+ +2.4% — -0.4% +1.8% 13.1x +3.5% 8.2 33x
33 San Luis Obispo County 14 A +1.2% — +0.0% +4.3% 29.6x +1.8% 7.9 24x
34 Stanislaus County 12 B -0.1% — +0.3% +2.3% 19.3x -0.1% 7.2 18x
35 Los Angeles County 9 C -0.1% — -0.4% +2.7% 21.0x +0.5% 10.3 25x
36 San Diego County 9 B+ +0.7% — +0.2% +3.9% 21.4x +0.5% 9.8 24x
37 Napa County 7 A -1.6% — -0.9% +2.3% 20.3x -1.7% 7.5 25x
38 Mendocino County 7 C -2.1% — -0.5% +5.3% 26.1x -0.6% 10.9 22x
39 San Francisco County 7 B- +11.4% — -0.7% -0.3% 8.5x +13.7% 10.5 25x
40 Ventura County 5 B -0.4% — -0.1% +2.3% 28.4x +0.8% 11.2 23x
41 Santa Clara County 4 B+ +1.4% — -0.1% +2.9% 12.0x +0.3% 6.0 32x
42 Humboldt County 2 C -2.7% — -0.7% +0.0% 20.0x -2.2% 11.2 22x
43 Santa Barbara County 1 B +0.5% — -0.1% +2.3% 22.3x +4.0% 11.0 21x

Capital Investment in California

Tracked Projects · Public Records
$198.7B
Total tracked investment
82,670
Jobs announced
191
Projects across 38 counties

Where the money is going

Infrastructure $72.5B 36%
Commercial/Residential $64.5B 32%
Energy $39.3B 20%
Data Centers $20.2B 10%
Healthcare $1.3B 1%

Top counties by investment

  1. 01 San Francisco County $53.0B
    5 projects
  2. 02 Solano County $50.3B
    6 projects · 53,200 jobs
  3. 03 Imperial County $18.1B
    6 projects · 1,600 jobs
  4. 04 Santa Clara County $13.8B
    6 projects
  5. 05 San Diego County $8.0B
    6 projects
  6. 06 Kern County $6.0B
    6 projects · 2,200 jobs

Largest projects in California

Project County Amount Status
City and County of San Francisco Capital Plan (Various Infrastructure Projects)
City and County of San Francisco · Infrastructure
 San Francisco County $52.1B Planned
California Forever (New City, Manufacturing & Shipyard)
Flannery Associates · Commercial/Residential · 53,000 jobs
 Solano County $49.0B Proposed
Santa Clara Valley Water District Capital Improvement Program
Santa Clara Valley Water District · Infrastructure
 Santa Clara County $10.4B Planned
Imperial Data Center (Aten and Clark roads)
Imperial Valley Computer Manufacturing (IVCM) · Data Centers · 1,600 jobs
 Imperial County $10.0B Proposed
CalEthos Data Center Complex
CalEthos · Data Centers
 Imperial County $5.5B Proposed
San Diego International Airport Terminal 1 Expansion
San Diego County Regional Airport Authority · Infrastructure
 San Diego County $3.8B Under Construction
Seaport San Diego
Undisclosed (Developer Group) · Commercial/Residential
 San Diego County $3.6B Under Construction
Darden Clean Energy Project
IP Darden I, LLC (subsidiary of Intersect Power) · Energy · 1,200 jobs
 Fresno County $2.5B Under Construction
→ Methodology · How We Tracked $4T Across 858 Counties

Source: public records, corporate announcements, state EDC filings. Tracking projects with $25M+ in announced investment or 500+ jobs. Some figures are estimates where exact totals weren't disclosed.

California shaded relief terrain map
SRTM 30m shaded relief
State Spotlight · 2026-04-29

California's economy splits as AI drives growth, residents exit

What's driving growth

The artificial intelligence and aerospace industries are fueling economic expansion in California. Investment in AI infrastructure and robust consumer spending from high-income households contribute to the state's economic performance. California continues to lead in high-growth sectors, including clean energy and advanced manufacturing.

Housing market right now

California's median home price is projected to increase by 1.0% to $873,900 in 2025 and then by 3.6% to $905,000 in 2026. Affordability remains a concern, with payments for a mid-tier home exceeding $5,500 a month in September 2025. Housing sales saw modest gains in 2025, with a more balanced market anticipated for 2026 due to easing price growth and falling mortgage rates.

Migration patterns

California was the top outbound state in 2025 for the sixth consecutive year, according to U-Haul data. High living and housing costs in cities like Los Angeles are primary drivers for residents relocating. Despite overall out-migration, San Diego County, particularly the city of San Diego, experienced population growth between 2022 and 2025, partly due to increased housing construction.

Headwinds

Construction, non-durable goods, leisure, hospitality, and government-funded services face significant challenges. The state's unemployment rate is expected to remain elevated in early 2026, around 5.5%. New tariffs imposed in 2025 contributed to inflation and slowed real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Key facts

  • California's median home price is forecast to reach $909,400 in 2025. (California Association of Realtors, 2025)
  • The California median home price is forecast to rise 3.6 percent to $905,000 in 2026. (California Association of Realtors, September 2025)
  • California's unemployment rate is expected to remain around 5.5% in early 2026. (UCLA Anderson School of Management, January 2026)
  • California was the top outbound state for U-Haul customers in 2025 for the sixth consecutive year. (U-Haul, January 2026)
  • New state laws taking effect in 2026 include expanded employer obligations, increased minimum wage to $16.90 an hour, and new AI-in-hiring rules. (CDF Labor Law LLP, December 2025; Alston & Bird, November 2025; California Civil Rights Department, October 2025)
Updated 2026-04-29 · grounded research
18 sources
  1. californiaforecast.com
  2. pacificresearch.org
  3. labusinessjournal.com
  4. car.org
  5. northamerican.com
  6. youtube.com
  7. cbs8.com
  8. californiaglobe.com
  9. comerica.com
  10. teamca.org
  11. loeb.com
  12. worldpropertyjournal.com
  13. frbsf.org
  14. frbsf.org
  15. ralenenelson.com
  16. cdflaborlaw.com
  17. gpins.com
  18. alston.com

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