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Kern County, CA

RANK #691 / 1001 NAT  ·  #13 / 43 CA  ·  POP 915,075

1YR FORECAST: -0.5%

5YR OUTLOOK: +26%

Our model projects Kern County's housing market at -0.5% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Kern County?

Home to Bakersfield, often called the "country music capital of the West Coast," Kern County spans the southern end of California's Central Valley, extending into the Sierra Nevada mountains and Mojave Desert. This diverse geography, California's third-largest county by area, offers a range of outdoor activities. Residents can enjoy whitewater rafting on the Kern River, explore hiking trails at Wind Wolves Preserve, or visit Lake Isabella for boating and fishing. The county's climate features long, warm summers and mild, wet winters, making outdoor recreation accessible for much of the year. Commute times vary, but public transportation options, including local and intercity bus services, are available throughout the county.

Life in the county is shaped by its agricultural roots and expanding industries. Kern County is a major agricultural producer, known for almonds, grapes, citrus fruits, and pistachios. Beyond agriculture, the economy is supported by petroleum extraction, as well as a growing presence in aviation, space, and military sectors, with facilities like Edwards Air Force Base. Recent economic developments include state initiatives aimed at fostering job growth and innovation across various sectors. The Kern High School District serves a large student population across numerous campuses, including comprehensive and alternative education sites.

MARKET PROFILE

Western Premium Correction

Kern County is one of 78 U.S. counties in this market profile — stronger than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of -0.3% matches the profile's typical -0.8%.

See all 78 Western Premium Correction counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
14.4x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
-0.3%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
4.8

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
16x

Above national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 14.4x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Kern County Government Government
    10,000+
  2. 2
    Kern High School District Education
    5,000+
  3. 3
    Bakersfield City School District Education
  4. 4
    Aera Energy Energy
    1,000+
  5. 5
    Kern Medical Healthcare
  6. 6
    Grimmway Farms Agriculture
  7. 7
    Bolthouse Farms Agriculture
  8. 8
    Adventist Health Bakersfield Healthcare
  9. 9
    California State University, Bakersfield Education
  10. 10
    Clinica Sierra Vista Healthcare

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Kern County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
915,075
+0.51% YoY
Median Household Income
$70,210
Median Home Value
$338,300
-0.34% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,300
Average Annual Pay
$61,728
+2.8% YoY
Employment
347,010
-0.2% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2075
Near national average
Migration Inflow
2.23%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
18.8%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$404,370
Days on Market
37
Active market
Months of Supply
3.5
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
99.1%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
29.1%
Listings w/ Price Drops
26.9%
Building Permits (2025)
3,159
Single-Family Permits
2,793

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

D
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
12.0
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
15.9
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
98.7
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well above national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

F
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
77.7
Moderate
Good Air Days
15%
167 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
320
Includes 3 Very Unhealthy
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
84
2022
80
2023
69
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$6,040M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Bellefield Solar + Storage (Phases 1 & 2)
AES Corporation
$2,000M Under Construction
Alta Wind Energy Center (Expansion)
Terra-Gen Power
$1,550M Operating
Discovery Solar PV and Storage
Terra-Gen
$1,400M Proposed
Pacific Steel Mill
Pacific Steel
$540M Planned
Rosamond Central Battery Energy Storage System (BESS)
Clearway Energy Group
$400M Operating
Park Center at Seven Oaks (Apartment Community)
Fuller Apartment Homes
$150M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +0.5% 44 percentile
Income Growth +3.8% 74 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.9% 56 percentile
Home Price Change -0.3% 23 percentile
Rent Growth +2.5% 42 percentile
Price/Rent 16x 45 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Kern County, CA a good place to move to?

At 30/100, Kern County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 1001 counties we track. Median income of $70,210 combined with job growth of -0.2% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Kern County affordable?

Kern County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $338,300 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.21 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,300/month on average.

Is Kern County growing or shrinking?

Kern County's population is growing — up +0.5% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of -0.2%). Home values shifted -0.3% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.

Are people moving to Kern County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 2.23% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Kern County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Merced County, CA 31 Fresno County, CA 28 Orange County, CA 26 Butte County, CA 35 Marin County, CA 35 Yuba County, CA 24 Prince George's County, MD 30 Hudson County, NJ 30