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Sonoma County, CA

Santa Rosa

RANK #895 / 996 NAT  ·  #33 / 43 CA  ·  POP 488,436

1YR FORECAST: -0.5%

5YR OUTLOOK: +12%

#14 Best Climate & Terrain #23 Most Overvalued
Our model projects Sonoma County's housing market at -0.5% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Sonoma County?

Sonoma County, California, is often recognized for its scenic vineyards and role in the wine industry, but locals frequently highlight its diverse natural landscapes and relaxed pace of life. Located about 40 miles north of San Francisco, the county offers a blend of coastal beauty, redwood forests, and rolling hills. Towns like Healdsburg, Santa Rosa, and Petaluma each have distinct characteristics, from Healdsburg's walkable downtown with tasting rooms to Petaluma's historic stone buildings. Commuting to San Francisco is possible via Highway 101, and within the county, public transit options like Sonoma County Transit and the SMART train connect various communities. Outdoor recreation is a significant draw, with opportunities for hiking and biking in numerous state and regional parks, kayaking on the Russian River, and exploring the Armstrong Redwoods State Natural Reserve.

Life in Sonoma County generally offers a community-focused atmosphere, with residents often noting a less materialistic environment compared to other Bay Area regions. The county is home to 40 school districts, including elementary, high school, and unified districts, serving both rural and urban areas. While many residents express contentment with their quality of life, concerns exist regarding the cost of living and housing availability. The economy is influenced by its agricultural heritage, particularly the wine industry, and is seeing ongoing investment in sectors like commercial and residential development, data centers, and green energy.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
11.8x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+0.8%

Well below national median

Home Prices
-2.5%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
7.9

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
24x

Prices detached from rents

Housing looks overvalued at 11.8x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    County of Sonoma Government
    2,500+
  2. 2
    Santa Rosa Junior College Education
  3. 3
    Kaiser Permanente Healthcare
  4. 4
    St. Joseph Health System Healthcare
  5. 5
    Graton Resort & Casino Hospitality
    1,000+
  6. 6
    Keysight Technologies Technology
  7. 7
    Santa Rosa City Schools Education
  8. 8
    City of Santa Rosa Government
  9. 9
    Medtronic CardioVascular Manufacturing
  10. 10
    Sutter Health Healthcare

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Sonoma County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
488,436
-0.82% YoY
Median Household Income
$99,266
Median Home Value
$748,500
-2.48% 12mo
Median Rent
$2,029
Average Annual Pay
$71,422
+2.0% YoY
Employment
206,849
-0.2% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1326
Less affordable than average
Migration Inflow
3.15%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
37.8%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$781,500
Days on Market
61
Slower market
Months of Supply
3.3
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
99.0%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
28.6%
Listings w/ Price Drops
16.0%
Building Permits (2024)
1,012
Single-Family Permits
832

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
2.4
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
7.9
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
65.7
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
35.3
Good
Good Air Days
81%
892 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
2
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
37
2022
36
2023
33
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$1,855M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Sonoma Developmental Center Mixed-Use Community (Eldridge)
Sonoma County
$500M Planned
Sonoma Mountain Data Center (Rohnert Park)
Sonoma Mountain Datacenter
$500M Operating
New County Government Complex (Santa Rosa)
Sonoma County
$308M Planned
Borealis Energy Storage Project
Borealis Energy Storage
$300M Proposed
Bolero Corporation Battery Energy Storage System
Bolero Corporation
$200M Proposed
New Public Health Lab and Morgue (Paulin Drive, Santa Rosa)
Sonoma County
$47M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +0.8% 14 percentile
Population Growth -0.8% 5 percentile
Income Growth +8.4% 45 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.6% 88 percentile
Home Price Change -2.5% 12 percentile
Rent Growth +1.2% 22 percentile
Price/Rent 24x 2 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Sonoma County, CA a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Sonoma County scores just 9/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #895 of 996 counties. Job growth at -0.2% and median household income of $99,266 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Sonoma County affordable?

Affordability is a real challenge in Sonoma County. The median home is valued at $748,500 — with an income-to-home-value ratio of just 0.13, that's significantly harder to afford than in most U.S. counties. Median rent runs $2,029/month.

Is Sonoma County growing or shrinking?

Sonoma County is losing population (-0.8% YoY) while the job market is essentially flat (-0.2% employment change). Home values are -2.5% over the past 12 months. A slow-bleed pattern — not a collapse, but residents are leaving faster than employers are hiring.

Are people moving to Sonoma County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.15% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Sonoma County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

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