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Manatee County, FL

RANK #955 / 1001 NAT  ·  #40 / 41 FL  ·  POP 429,792

1YR FORECAST: -2.8%

5YR OUTLOOK: +14%

#48 Fastest Growing
Our model projects Manatee County's housing market at -2.8% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Manatee County?

Manatee County, Florida, is known for its 27 miles of white sand beaches along Anna Maria Island and Longboat Key, attracting millions of visitors annually. The Manatee River, a popular spot for fishing and water sports, flows into Tampa Bay. The county seat, Bradenton, offers a mix of urban and suburban living, while Lakewood Ranch is a rapidly growing master-planned community. Commuting within the county is primarily car-dependent, though Manatee County Area Transit (MCAT) provides bus service, including a free trolley on Anna Maria Island. Outdoor recreation is a significant draw, with preserves like Robinson Preserve and Myakka River State Park offering hiking, biking, kayaking, and birdwatching opportunities.

Life in Manatee County offers a blend of coastal living and community spirit. The School District of Manatee County serves over 50,000 students and is considered above average. The area has seen a population surge, adding nearly 60,000 new residents in four years. The economy is driven by sectors such as manufacturing, energy production, and transportation infrastructure, with SeaPort Manatee playing a role as a deepwater seaport. Local governments and economic development agencies actively work to attract new businesses and support existing ones.

MARKET PROFILE

Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction

Manatee County is one of 76 U.S. counties in this market profile — weaker than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of -6.5% runs below the profile's typical -3.7%.

See all 76 Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
18.1x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
-6.5%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
4.7

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
16x

Above national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 18.1x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    School District of Manatee County Education
    5,000+
  2. 2
    Publix Retail
    2,500+
  3. 3
    Manatee County Government Government
    1,000+
  4. 4
    Bealls Inc. Retail
  5. 5
    Manatee Memorial Hospital Healthcare
  6. 6
    Blake Medical Center Healthcare
  7. 7
    Tropicana Brands Group Manufacturing
    500+
  8. 8
    HCA Florida Healthcare Healthcare
  9. 9
    State College of Florida, Manatee-Sarasota Education
  10. 10
    IMG Academy Education

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Manatee County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
429,792
+3.31% YoY
Median Household Income
$78,457
Median Home Value
$391,400
-6.47% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,671
Average Annual Pay
$63,555
+4.5% YoY
Employment
145,807
+1.3% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2005
Near national average
Migration Inflow
3.65%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
35.4%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$414,535
Days on Market
64
Slower market
Months of Supply
3.7
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
96.7%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
7.3%
Listings w/ Price Drops
36.0%
Building Permits (2025)
11,015
Single-Family Permits
7,014

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B-
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
4.9
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
14.1
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
96.9
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B+
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
33.3
Good
Good Air Days
96%
1,029 of 1,076 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
0
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
32
2022
33
2023
35
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$1,147M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Community Solar Portfolio (7 projects)
Florida Power & Light Co. (FPL) and Duke Energy Florida
$522M Operating
Manatee Energy Storage Center
Florida Power & Light Co. (FPL)
$409M Operating
Manatee County School District IT Upgrades
Manatee County School District
$67M Planned
Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) Facility at Lena Road Landfill
Nopetro Energy and Johnson Controls
$50M Planned
SpaceX Satellite Communications Facility
SpaceX (Starlink)
$50M Proposed
Valor Commons (Veterans Service and Memorial Campus)
Manatee County Government
$50M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +3.3% 95 percentile
Income Growth +3.5% 69 percentile
Vacancy Rate 2.3% 3 percentile
Home Price Change -6.5% 1 percentile
Rent Growth -3.3% 1 percentile
Price/Rent 16x 45 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Manatee County, FL a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Manatee County scores just 4/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #955 of 1001 counties. Job growth at +1.3% and median household income of $78,457 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Manatee County affordable?

Manatee County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $391,400 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.20 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,671/month on average.

Is Manatee County growing or shrinking?

Manatee County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +3.3% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +1.3% clip. Home values shifted -6.5% in the past year.

Are people moving to Manatee County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.65% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Manatee County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

Is the housing market declining in Manatee County?

Home values fell -6.5% over the past year in Manatee County, bringing the median down to $391,400. A drop of that magnitude usually reflects weakening demand or population outflow — worth watching if you're considering buying here.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Lee County, FL 5 Sarasota County, FL 5 Hillsborough County, FL 5 Orange County, FL 3 Collier County, FL 7 Pinellas County, FL 8 Sonoma County, CA 4 Webb County, TX 4