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Pinellas County, FL

RANK #197 / 1001 NAT  ·  #9 / 41 FL  ·  POP 963,481

1YR FORECAST: -1.6%

5YR OUTLOOK: +21%

Our model projects Pinellas County's housing market to grow -1.6% over the next year, significantly outpacing the national average.

[01] Why Pinellas County?

Pinellas County, Florida, is a peninsula on Florida's Gulf Coast, bordered by the Gulf of Mexico to the west and Tampa Bay to the east. It is connected to Tampa, a major city in Hillsborough County, by three bridges. The county offers a mix of urban and suburban environments, with communities ranging from the arts-focused downtown St. Petersburg to the small-town charm of Dunedin and Safety Harbor. Pinellas County is known for its natural amenities, including numerous parks, preserves, and beaches like Clearwater Beach and Fort De Soto Park, offering opportunities for outdoor recreation such as kayaking, biking, and walking on trails like the Pinellas Trail.

The economy of Pinellas County is diversified, with major employers in sectors such as healthcare, retail, and financial services. Top private employers include Publix, Walmart, and Raymond James & Associates. The county also has a strong presence in manufacturing, defense and homeland security, aviation and aerospace, life sciences, and information technology. Recent economic developments include significant investment flowing into commercial and residential projects, as well as the energy sector. The county actively works to attract and support businesses in high-wage industries like high-tech manufacturing, software development, and financial services.

MARKET PROFILE
LEANS TOWARD

Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction

Pinellas County is one of 76 U.S. counties in this market profile — stronger than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of -0.8% runs above the profile's typical -3.7%.

See all 76 Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
10.9x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
-0.8%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
5.0

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
15x

Below national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 10.9x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Pinellas County Schools Education
    10,000+
  2. 2
    Raymond James Financial Finance
    2,500+
  3. 3
    Publix Super Markets Retail
  4. 4
    BayCare Health System Healthcare
  5. 5
    Pinellas County Government Government
  6. 6
    Jabil Manufacturing
  7. 7
    TD Synnex Technology
  8. 8
    Johns Hopkins All Children's Hospital Healthcare
    1,000+
  9. 9
    AmeriLife Finance
  10. 10
    Lockheed Martin Manufacturing

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Pinellas County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
963,481
+0.3% YoY
Median Household Income
$72,646
Median Home Value
$355,100
-0.83% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,642
Average Annual Pay
$70,854
+4.9% YoY
Employment
441,425
-1.4% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2046
Near national average
Migration Inflow
2.57%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
36.8%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$410,000
Days on Market
49
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
4.2
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
96.4%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
11.5%
Listings w/ Price Drops
37.0%
Building Permits (2025)
4,198
Single-Family Permits
1,376

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
5.2
per 100K · nat avg 6.5
Firearm Fatalities
13.5
per 100K · nat avg 13.4
Injury Deaths
125.8
per 100K · nat avg 83.6
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate
10-Year Trend
Down 10% since 2015
homicide rate, 2015 → 2025

Source: Homicide rates from CDC/NCHS vital-statistics mortality data — a multi-year average that stabilizes counts in smaller counties — compiled in the County Health Rankings 2025 release. Rates per 100,000 population; U.S. average ≈ 6.5. Grade reflects homicide rate relative to the national average. Learn more →

See where Pinellas County stands nationally: safest large counties in America · highest homicide-rate counties · counties where safety is improving.

[06] Air Quality

B-
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
46.7
Good
Good Air Days
61%
665 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
3
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
47
2022
46
2023
47
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$940M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Tropicana Field Site Redevelopment Proposals (multiple projects)
ARK Ellison Horus, Blake Investment Partners, Foundation Vision Partners, Pinellas County Housing Authority
$500M Proposed
P L Bartow Natural Gas Power Plant Upgrades
Duke Energy Florida, LLC
$340M Under Construction
Digital Meter Upgrade (Advanced Metering Infrastructure)
Pinellas County Utilities (PCU)
$50M In Progress
St. Pete-Clearwater Airport Terminal Improvement
Pinellas County
$50M Design: In progress

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +0.3% 34 percentile
Income Growth +3.4% 65 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.7% 11 percentile
Home Price Change -0.8% 14 percentile
Rent Growth +1.1% 15 percentile
Price/Rent 15x 57 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Pinellas County, FL a good place to move to?

Pinellas County ranks #197 out of 1001 U.S. counties on the Boom Town Index with a score of 80/100. The composite score reflects long-term strength — housing, income, and migration patterns — but near-term hiring is soft (employment is down 1.4% year-over-year). Median household income here is $72,646.

Is Pinellas County affordable?

Pinellas County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $355,100 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.20 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,642/month on average.

Is Pinellas County growing or shrinking?

Pinellas County's job market is contracting (-1.4% YoY) while population is roughly stable (+0.3% change). Home values are -0.8% over the past 12 months. Hiring headwinds without an offsetting exodus — residents are staying, but local employers are shedding payroll.

Are people moving to Pinellas County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 2.57% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Pinellas County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Columbia County, FL 82 Flagler County, FL 84 Sumter County, FL 86 Collier County, FL 73 St. Lucie County, FL 88 Seminole County, FL 72 Utah County, UT 80 Lake County, IL 82