27 / 100

Bay County, FL

Panama City

RANK #717 / 996 NAT  ·  #12 / 41 FL  ·  POP 181,055

1YR FORECAST: -0.3%

5YR OUTLOOK: +18%

Our model projects Bay County's housing market at -0.3% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Bay County?

Panama City Beach, a prominent town in Bay County, Florida, is known for its 27 miles of white sand beaches and clear emerald waters. The county is located in the Florida Panhandle, approximately 100 miles southwest of Tallahassee. Commuting within Bay County is facilitated by major highways like U.S. 98 and U.S. 231, and a public bus system called Bayway serves Panama City, Panama City Beach, Lynn Haven, and other areas. The community offers extensive outdoor recreation, including St. Andrews State Park, which provides opportunities for snorkeling, kayaking, and fishing. Conservation Park features over 24 miles of trails and boardwalks for hiking and biking. The area also boasts natural springs like those along Econfina Creek, popular for paddling and swimming.

Life in Bay County offers a blend of coastal living and community amenities. The Bay District Schools system serves over 27,000 students across 49 schools, with public schools generally performing above average. The economy is significantly influenced by its military presence, including Tyndall Air Force Base and Naval Support Activity Panama City, which contribute to a strong defense and aerospace sector. Recent economic developments include investments in manufacturing and aviation, with new businesses and infrastructure projects underway. The area also sees ongoing expansion in residential and commercial sectors, including a 55+ community and mixed-use waterfront developments.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
4.3x

Below national median (4.7x)

GDP Growth
+2.2%

Below national median

Home Prices
-3.1%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
2.1

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
12x

Below national median (13x)

Housing is fairly valued at 4.3x relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Tyndall Air Force Base Military
    5,000+
  2. 2
    Naval Support Activity Panama City Military
    2,500+
  3. 3
    Bay District Schools Education
  4. 4
    Bay Medical Sacred Heart Healthcare
    1,000+
  5. 5
    Trane Manufacturing
    500+
  6. 6
    Goodwill Industries - Big Bend Other
  7. 7
    Eastern Shipbuilding Group Manufacturing
  8. 8
    HCA Florida Gulf Coast Hospital Healthcare
  9. 9
    Edgewater Beach & Golf Resort Hospitality
  10. 10
    Bay County Government Government

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Bay County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
181,055
-0.18% YoY
Median Household Income
$65,999
Median Home Value
$246,800
-3.12% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,311
Average Annual Pay
$53,407
+3.7% YoY
Employment
82,632
+2.7% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2674
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
3.23%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
26.6%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$350,000
Days on Market
98
Slower market
Months of Supply
7.4
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
96.0%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
6.1%
Listings w/ Price Drops
22.4%
Building Permits (2024)
2,473
Single-Family Permits
1,886

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
5.5
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
19.1
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
105.8
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Near national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B-
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
47.7
Good
Good Air Days
57%
622 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
0
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
46
2022
46
2023
51
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$404M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Mule Creek Renewable Energy Center
Duke Energy Florida
$75M Operating
Sandy Creek Solar Power Plant
Duke Energy Florida
$75M Operating
Bay Ranch Solar Power Plant
Duke Energy Florida
$75M Operating
FPL Saw Palmetto Solar Energy Center
Florida Power & Light Company (FPL)
$74M Operating
FedEx Ground Regional Distribution Facility
FedEx
$55M Operating
Voltari Electric Shipyard (former Queen Craft Shipyard)
Voltari Electric
$50M Proposed

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +2.2% 39 percentile
Population Growth -0.2% 21 percentile
Income Growth +9.1% 66 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.6% 20 percentile
Home Price Change -3.1% 9 percentile
Rent Growth +1.0% 19 percentile
Price/Rent 12x 64 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Bay County, FL a good place to move to?

At 27/100, Bay County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 996 counties we track. Median income of $65,999 combined with job growth of +2.7% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Bay County affordable?

Housing in Bay County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $246,800 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.27, with rents averaging $1,311/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Bay County growing or shrinking?

Employers in Bay County are hiring — job growth of +2.7% — but the population is close to flat (-0.2% YoY). Home values moved -3.1% over the past year. Labor demand is outpacing local population growth, which tends to tighten wages and housing.

Are people moving to Bay County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.23% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Bay County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

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