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Bay County, FL

RANK #62 / 1001 NAT  ·  #1 / 41 FL  ·  POP 186,393

1YR FORECAST: -1.8%

5YR OUTLOOK: +38%

Our model projects Bay County's housing market to grow -1.8% over the next year, significantly outpacing the national average.

[01] Why Bay County?

Panama City Beach, a prominent town in Bay County, Florida, is known for its 27 miles of white sand beaches and clear emerald waters. The county is located in the Florida Panhandle, approximately 100 miles southwest of Tallahassee. Commuting within Bay County is facilitated by major highways like U.S. 98 and U.S. 231, and a public bus system called Bayway serves Panama City, Panama City Beach, Lynn Haven, and other areas. The community offers extensive outdoor recreation, including St. Andrews State Park, which provides opportunities for snorkeling, kayaking, and fishing. Conservation Park features over 24 miles of trails and boardwalks for hiking and biking. The area also boasts natural springs like those along Econfina Creek, popular for paddling and swimming.

Life in Bay County offers a blend of coastal living and community amenities. The Bay District Schools system serves over 27,000 students across 49 schools, with public schools generally performing above average. The economy is significantly influenced by its military presence, including Tyndall Air Force Base and Naval Support Activity Panama City, which contribute to a strong defense and aerospace sector. Recent economic developments include investments in manufacturing and aviation, with new businesses and infrastructure projects underway. The area also sees ongoing expansion in residential and commercial sectors, including a 55+ community and mixed-use waterfront developments.

MARKET PROFILE

Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction

Bay County is one of 76 U.S. counties in this market profile — stronger than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of -1.9% runs above the profile's typical -3.7%.

See all 76 Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
12.5x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
-1.9%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
2.1

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
15x

Above national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 12.5x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Tyndall Air Force Base Military
    5,000+
  2. 2
    Naval Support Activity Panama City Military
    2,500+
  3. 3
    Bay District Schools Education
  4. 4
    Bay Medical Sacred Heart Healthcare
    1,000+
  5. 5
    Trane Manufacturing
    500+
  6. 6
    Goodwill Industries - Big Bend Other
  7. 7
    Eastern Shipbuilding Group Manufacturing
  8. 8
    HCA Florida Gulf Coast Hospital Healthcare
  9. 9
    Edgewater Beach & Golf Resort Hospitality
  10. 10
    Bay County Government Government

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Bay County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
186,393
+2.77% YoY
Median Household Income
$73,533
Median Home Value
$310,500
-1.95% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,484
Average Annual Pay
$55,489
+3.9% YoY
Employment
83,190
+0.7% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2368
Near national average
Migration Inflow
3.54%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
29.6%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$357,500
Days on Market
76
Slower market
Months of Supply
6.3
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
96.7%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
9.3%
Listings w/ Price Drops
30.7%
Building Permits (2025)
2,072
Single-Family Permits
1,685

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
5.5
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
19.1
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
105.8
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Near national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B-
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
47.7
Good
Good Air Days
57%
622 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
0
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
46
2022
46
2023
51
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$404M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Mule Creek Renewable Energy Center
Duke Energy Florida
$75M Operating
Sandy Creek Solar Power Plant
Duke Energy Florida
$75M Operating
Bay Ranch Solar Power Plant
Duke Energy Florida
$75M Operating
FPL Saw Palmetto Solar Energy Center
Florida Power & Light Company (FPL)
$74M Operating
FedEx Ground Regional Distribution Facility
FedEx
$55M Operating
Voltari Electric Shipyard (former Queen Craft Shipyard)
Voltari Electric
$50M Proposed

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +2.8% 93 percentile
Income Growth +4.8% 88 percentile
Vacancy Rate 2.0% 6 percentile
Home Price Change -1.9% 12 percentile
Rent Growth +1.2% 22 percentile
Price/Rent 15x 50 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Bay County, FL a good place to move to?

Bay County ranks #62 out of 1001 U.S. counties on the Boom Town Index with a score of 94/100, putting it in the top tier nationally. Job growth of +0.7% and a median household income of $73,533 point to a county with active economic momentum.

Is Bay County affordable?

Bay County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $310,500 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.24 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,484/month on average.

Is Bay County growing or shrinking?

Bay County's population is growing — up +2.8% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of +0.7%). Home values shifted -1.9% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.

Are people moving to Bay County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.54% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Bay County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Putnam County, FL 91 Leon County, FL 86 Monroe County, FL 86 Okaloosa County, FL 85 Walton County, FL 78 Escambia County, FL 70 Richland County, OH 94 Blair County, PA 94