23 / 100

San Joaquin County, CA

Stockton

RANK #763 / 996 NAT  ·  #19 / 43 CA  ·  POP 779,445

1YR FORECAST: -0.0%

5YR OUTLOOK: +17%

#45 Most Overvalued
Our model projects San Joaquin County's housing market at -0.0% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why San Joaquin County?

Lodi, known as the "Zinfandel Capital of the World," offers a glimpse into San Joaquin County's agricultural identity. Located in California's Central Valley, the county sits just over an hour's drive east of the San Francisco Bay Area. This proximity makes it a bedroom community for those seeking more affordable housing while commuting to Bay Area jobs. The community feel varies across its towns, from the bustling city of Stockton to smaller, close-knit areas like Ripon. The county boasts a Mediterranean climate with warm, dry summers and mild winters, providing ample opportunities for outdoor recreation in the San Joaquin Delta, with its 1,000 miles of waterways for boating, fishing, and water sports. Regional parks like Micke Grove Regional Park in Lodi offer amenities such as a zoo and Japanese gardens.

Life in San Joaquin County often involves a balance between local living and regional employment. Many residents commute to the Bay Area and Silicon Valley, with options including the Altamont Corridor Express (ACE) train and regional bus services. The local economy is diverse, with agriculture remaining a significant industry, particularly known for wine grapes, almonds, and walnuts. Beyond agriculture, the county has seen growth in transportation and logistics, manufacturing, and healthcare sectors. Educational opportunities are available through local K-12 schools, with some top-ranked elementary schools, and institutions like the University of the Pacific and San Joaquin Delta College.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
10.3x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+5.7%

Well above national median

Home Prices
-4.2%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
4.8

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
16x

Above national median (13x)

Housing looks overvalued at 10.3x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Healthcare Services (County Hospitals and Facilities) Healthcare
    25,000+
  2. 2
    Safeway Retail
    10,000+
  3. 3
    Amazon Logistics
    5,000+
  4. 4
    The Herrick Corporation Manufacturing
    500+
  5. 5
    San Joaquin County Government Government
  6. 6
    San Joaquin County Office of Education Education
  7. 7
    Tesla Manufacturing
  8. 8
    FedEx Logistics
  9. 9
    Coastal Pacific Food Distributors Logistics
  10. 10
    Super Store Industries, Inc. Manufacturing

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

San Joaquin County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
779,445
+1.04% YoY
Median Household Income
$82,837
Median Home Value
$462,000
-4.2% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,542
Average Annual Pay
$63,300
+5.8% YoY
Employment
287,828
+1.8% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1793
Less affordable than average
Migration Inflow
3.64%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
20.3%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$502,500
Days on Market
52
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
3.7
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.6%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
26.0%
Listings w/ Price Drops
24.7%
Building Permits (2024)
3,779
Single-Family Permits
3,773

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

D
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
9.5
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
12.2
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
72.6
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well above national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B-
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
50.0
Good
Good Air Days
49%
540 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
34
Includes 1 Very Unhealthy
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
55
2022
48
2023
47
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$1,099M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Kola Energy Center (Battery Storage)
North Central Valley Energy Storage, LLC
$400M Planned
Korda Energy Storage (Battery Storage)
NextEra Energy Resources
$400M Proposed
Amazon Fulfillment Centers (Multiple)
Amazon
$100M Operating
Ripon Reliability BESS Project (Battery Storage)
Engie
$99M Planned
SJ BeWell Campus (Behavioral Health Care Facility)
San Joaquin County
$50M Under Construction
Benjamin Holt Drive Infrastructure Improvements
San Joaquin County & City of Stockton
$50M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +5.7% 89 percentile
Population Growth +1.0% 73 percentile
Income Growth +10.5% 86 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.0% 58 percentile
Home Price Change -4.2% 4 percentile
Rent Growth +2.4% 40 percentile
Price/Rent 16x 24 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is San Joaquin County, CA a good place to move to?

At 23/100, San Joaquin County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 996 counties we track. Median income of $82,837 combined with job growth of +1.8% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is San Joaquin County affordable?

San Joaquin County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $462,000 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.18 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,542/month on average.

Is San Joaquin County growing or shrinking?

San Joaquin County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +1.0% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +1.8% clip. Home values shifted -4.2% in the past year.

Are people moving to San Joaquin County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.64% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests San Joaquin County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

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