Ranked by Home Value vs. GDP (Highest) · Data updated August 2026

Most Overvalued Housing Markets

Counties where home prices are highest relative to local economic output (GDP per capita). A high ratio means housing costs more per dollar the local economy produces.

Most Overvalued Housing Markets

California's Coastal Squeeze Extends Inland

California dominates this list of overvalued markets, with 13 counties, including San Benito, Marin, Santa Cruz, El Dorado, and Contra Costa. This isn't just a coastal phenomenon; the pressure of high demand and limited supply in prime areas pushes buyers further out, stretching prices in adjacent counties beyond what local economies might typically support. The allure of the California lifestyle, coupled with constrained housing development, creates a persistent imbalance.

The Unlikely Overvaluation of Paulding County, Georgia

Paulding County, Georgia, stands out as a surprising entry among the top overvalued markets. Unlike many coastal or established urban centers, Paulding is a rapidly growing exurb of Atlanta. Its inclusion here suggests that even in more affordable regions, rapid population growth and the pursuit of suburban space can drive home prices to levels that outpace local economic fundamentals, creating a localized bubble effect.

Hawaii's Island Paradox: High Prices, Stretched Value

Hawaii's Maui and Kauai counties appear on this list, highlighting a unique tension. While their natural beauty and desirability are undeniable, the limited land, high construction costs, and influx of non-local wealth push home prices to extreme highs. This makes housing significantly overvalued relative to the islands' internal economic output, creating a market where local incomes struggle to keep pace with property values.

# County BTI Score HV Ratio GDP Growth Home Price 1yr Forecast
01 San Benito County CA 79 46.7x — -0.5% +1.2%
02 Island County WA 37 43.8x — +0.5% +0.4%
03 Kings County NY 69 41.8x — +5.0% +2.1%
04 Marin County CA 88 37.2x — +4.3% +1.8%
05 Santa Cruz County CA 81 37.2x — +4.6% +1.3%
06 Paulding County GA 60 36.7x — -0.4% -0.8%
07 Richmond County NY 48 36.1x — +5.4% +1.9%
08 Polk County OR 65 35.5x — +1.4% -0.6%
09 Pinal County AZ 92 33.5x — -2.3% -1.6%
10 Wilson County TX 30 33.1x — -0.0% +0.3%
11 Columbia County OR 58 32.5x — -0.6% +0.8%
12 El Dorado County CA 81 32.3x — +0.5% +0.4%
13 Queens County NY 30 31.5x — +4.7% +1.1%
14 Maui County HI 36 31.2x — -3.3% -0.9%
15 Chatham County NC 4 31.2x — +0.3% -0.0%
16 Tooele County UT 33 31.1x — -0.1% -0.5%
17 Contra Costa County CA 46 30.9x — -1.1% -0.4%
18 Calvert County MD 47 30.7x — +1.2% +0.3%
19 Kauai County HI 53 30.7x — +2.0% +1.7%
20 Wagoner County OK 85 30.7x — +2.8% +1.4%
21 Flagler County FL 84 30.6x — -1.0% -1.2%
22 Mason County WA 24 30.2x — +0.2% +0.0%
23 Logan County OK 65 29.8x — +0.9% +0.6%
24 San Luis Obispo County CA 14 29.6x — +1.8% +1.2%
25 Cherokee County GA 81 29.2x — -1.0% -0.7%
26 Bronx County NY 88 29.2x — +5.9% +2.2%
27 Madison County ID 54 29.0x — +5.1% +1.6%
28 Pike County PA 62 29.0x — +3.7% +3.1%
29 Spotsylvania County VA 58 28.7x — +1.0% +1.9%
30 Ventura County CA 5 28.4x — +0.8% -0.4%
31 Bonner County ID 99 28.4x — +3.0% +1.9%
32 Nevada County CA 50 28.0x — +0.6% +0.4%
33 Santa Rosa County FL 22 27.6x — +1.3% -0.6%
34 Lyon County NV 99 27.6x — +3.1% +1.3%
35 Charles County MD 23 27.2x — -1.2% -0.4%
36 Monterey County CA 35 27.1x — +0.9% +1.4%
37 Honolulu County HI 49 27.0x — +2.3% +0.8%
38 Prince William County VA 32 26.9x — +1.1% +1.5%
39 Kendall County IL 52 26.9x — +3.0% +2.8%
40 Riverside County CA 40 26.7x — -0.0% -0.2%
41 Hoke County NC 71 26.5x — -0.1% +0.4%
42 Christian County MO 57 26.5x — +2.5% +1.4%
43 Bristol County RI 60 26.5x — +2.8% +2.3%
44 Solano County CA 56 26.4x — -1.3% -0.3%
45 Fauquier County VA 77 26.3x — +2.9% +3.2%
46 Bastrop County TX 5 26.2x — -4.7% -2.8%
47 Sonoma County CA 26 26.2x — +0.0% -0.0%
48 Mendocino County CA 7 26.1x — -0.6% -2.1%
49 Yavapai County AZ 68 25.9x — -0.0% -1.0%
50 Queen Anne's County MD 20 25.7x — +2.2% +1.5%
50
Counties ranked
Cite this ranking

BoomTownIndex, “Most Overvalued Housing Markets.” Data: August 2026. https://boomtownindex.com/rankings/most-overvalued-housing/

Free to reference with a link. See methodology →