Counties where home prices are highest relative to local economic output (GDP per capita). A high ratio means housing costs more per dollar the local economy produces.
California dominates this list of overvalued markets, with 13 counties, including San Benito, Marin, Santa Cruz, El Dorado, and Contra Costa. This isn't just a coastal phenomenon; the pressure of high demand and limited supply in prime areas pushes buyers further out, stretching prices in adjacent counties beyond what local economies might typically support. The allure of the California lifestyle, coupled with constrained housing development, creates a persistent imbalance.
Paulding County, Georgia, stands out as a surprising entry among the top overvalued markets. Unlike many coastal or established urban centers, Paulding is a rapidly growing exurb of Atlanta. Its inclusion here suggests that even in more affordable regions, rapid population growth and the pursuit of suburban space can drive home prices to levels that outpace local economic fundamentals, creating a localized bubble effect.
Hawaii's Maui and Kauai counties appear on this list, highlighting a unique tension. While their natural beauty and desirability are undeniable, the limited land, high construction costs, and influx of non-local wealth push home prices to extreme highs. This makes housing significantly overvalued relative to the islands' internal economic output, creating a market where local incomes struggle to keep pace with property values.
BoomTownIndex, “Most Overvalued Housing Markets.” Data: August 2026. https://boomtownindex.com/rankings/most-overvalued-housing/