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James City County, VA

RANK #774 / 1001 NAT  ·  #25 / 37 VA  ·  POP 81,013

1YR FORECAST: -0.1%

5YR OUTLOOK: +24%

Our model projects James City County's housing market at -0.1% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why James City County?

James City County, Virginia, is perhaps best known as home to Historic Jamestowne, the site of the first permanent English settlement in North America. The county is situated on the Virginia Peninsula, adjacent to the independent city of Williamsburg, and is part of the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News metropolitan area. Interstate 64 bisects the county, providing access to nearby cities like Richmond and Norfolk. The community offers a blend of historical attractions and natural scenery, with 152 miles of shoreline along the James, York, and Chickahominy Rivers. Residents have access to numerous parks, including Freedom Park with its mountain biking trails and Go Ape Zipline & Adventure Park, and Chickahominy Riverfront Park, which offers camping, fishing, and kayaking. The Virginia Capital Trail also provides miles of dedicated biking paths.

Life in James City County appeals to a range of residents, including families and retirees, drawn by its schools and amenities. The Williamsburg-James City County Public Schools system is a combined division serving both the county and Williamsburg, with its high schools considered above average. The local economy benefits from a strong tourism sector, driven by historical sites and attractions like Busch Gardens Williamsburg. Beyond tourism, the county has seen growth in small businesses and start-up companies. There is also a focus on attracting and retaining talent in knowledge, technology, and professional fields, with efforts to support manufacturing industries.

MARKET PROFILE

Idiosyncratic Markets

James City County's data profile doesn't fit any single market profile cleanly — its housing, labor, and demographic signals pull in different directions (home prices +0.2% YoY, population +1.2%, wages +4.0%). About 414 U.S. counties show this kind of mixed-signal pattern.

See all 414 Idiosyncratic Markets counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
21.8x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
+0.2%

Well below national median

Climate & Terrain
1.1

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
18x

Above national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 21.8x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Busch Entertainment Corp. (Busch Gardens Williamsburg / Water Country USA) Hospitality
    2,500+
  2. 2
    Williamsburg-James City County Schools Education
    250+
  3. 3
    James City County Government Government
  4. 4
    Eastern State Hospital Healthcare
  5. 5
    Riverside Regional Medical Center Healthcare
  6. 6
    Walmart (including Import Distribution Center) Retail
  7. 7
    Anheuser-Busch Inc. Manufacturing
  8. 8
    Owens-Illinois Manufacturing
  9. 9
    Greystone VA Manufacturing
  10. 10
    Williamsburg Plantation Hospitality

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

James City County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
81,013
+1.21% YoY
Median Household Income
$109,985
Median Home Value
$447,200
+0.22% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,552
Average Annual Pay
$54,451
+4.0% YoY
Employment
30,472
+1.0% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2459
Near national average
Migration Inflow
4.64%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
51.0%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$515,000
Days on Market
30
Active market
Months of Supply
2.2
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
100.1%
Homes selling above asking
Sold Above List
35.2%
Listings w/ Price Drops
32.0%
Building Permits (2025)
225
Single-Family Permits
209

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
3.0
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
9.2
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
61.8
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Capital Investment

$310M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
James City County Government Center
James City County
$179M Under Construction
Kongsberg Defense & Aerospace Missile Manufacturing Facility
Kongsberg Defense & Aerospace
$100M Planned
Rochambeau Solar
Rochambeau Solar (previously)
$26M Operating
CEL Critical Power Manufacturing Facility
CEL Critical Power
$5M Operating

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +1.2% 72 percentile
Income Growth +2.8% 50 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.1% 44 percentile
Home Price Change +0.2% 29 percentile
Rent Growth +3.5% 59 percentile
Price/Rent 18x 27 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is James City County, VA a good place to move to?

At 22/100, James City County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 1001 counties we track. Median income of $109,985 combined with job growth of +1.0% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is James City County affordable?

James City County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $447,200 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.25 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,552/month on average.

Is James City County growing or shrinking?

James City County's population is growing — up +1.2% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of +1.0%). Home values shifted +0.2% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.

Are people moving to James City County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 4.64% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests James City County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Henry County, VA 22 Prince William County, VA 22 Montgomery County, VA 24 Frederick County, VA 20 York County, VA 20 Lynchburg city, VA 20 Henderson County, TX 22 Boone County, IN 22