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James City County, VA

Stonehouse

RANK #906 / 996 NAT  ·  #34 / 37 VA  ·  POP 78,818

1YR FORECAST: -0.2%

5YR OUTLOOK: +12%

#6 Most Overvalued
Our model projects James City County's housing market at -0.2% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why James City County?

James City County, Virginia, is perhaps best known as home to Historic Jamestowne, the site of the first permanent English settlement in North America. The county is situated on the Virginia Peninsula, adjacent to the independent city of Williamsburg, and is part of the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News metropolitan area. Interstate 64 bisects the county, providing access to nearby cities like Richmond and Norfolk. The community offers a blend of historical attractions and natural scenery, with 152 miles of shoreline along the James, York, and Chickahominy Rivers. Residents have access to numerous parks, including Freedom Park with its mountain biking trails and Go Ape Zipline & Adventure Park, and Chickahominy Riverfront Park, which offers camping, fishing, and kayaking. The Virginia Capital Trail also provides miles of dedicated biking paths.

Life in James City County appeals to a range of residents, including families and retirees, drawn by its schools and amenities. The Williamsburg-James City County Public Schools system is a combined division serving both the county and Williamsburg, with its high schools considered above average. The local economy benefits from a strong tourism sector, driven by historical sites and attractions like Busch Gardens Williamsburg. Beyond tourism, the county has seen growth in small businesses and start-up companies. There is also a focus on attracting and retaining talent in knowledge, technology, and professional fields, with efforts to support manufacturing industries.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
19.8x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
+0.4%

Well below national median

Climate & Terrain
1.1

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
17x

Above national median (13x)

Housing looks overvalued at 19.8x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Busch Entertainment Corp. (Busch Gardens Williamsburg / Water Country USA) Hospitality
    2,500+
  2. 2
    Williamsburg-James City County Schools Education
    250+
  3. 3
    James City County Government Government
  4. 4
    Eastern State Hospital Healthcare
  5. 5
    Riverside Regional Medical Center Healthcare
  6. 6
    Walmart (including Import Distribution Center) Retail
  7. 7
    Anheuser-Busch Inc. Manufacturing
  8. 8
    Owens-Illinois Manufacturing
  9. 9
    Greystone VA Manufacturing
  10. 10
    Williamsburg Plantation Hospitality

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

James City County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
78,818
+1.4% YoY
Median Household Income
$100,711
Median Home Value
$396,800
+0.41% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,435
Average Annual Pay
$52,359
+1.3% YoY
Employment
30,184
+2.9% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2538
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
4.95%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
50.0%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$462,500
Days on Market
55
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
3.9
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.7%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
17.6%
Listings w/ Price Drops
17.0%
Building Permits (2024)
358
Single-Family Permits
296

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
3.0
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
9.2
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
61.8
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Capital Investment

$310M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
James City County Government Center
James City County
$179M Under Construction
Kongsberg Defense & Aerospace Missile Manufacturing Facility
Kongsberg Defense & Aerospace
$100M Planned
Rochambeau Solar
Rochambeau Solar (previously)
$26M Operating
CEL Critical Power Manufacturing Facility
CEL Critical Power
$5M Operating

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +1.4% 80 percentile
Income Growth +6.1% 9 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.6% 17 percentile
Home Price Change +0.4% 36 percentile
Rent Growth +2.4% 40 percentile
Price/Rent 17x 22 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is James City County, VA a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — James City County scores just 8/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #906 of 996 counties. Job growth at +2.9% and median household income of $100,711 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is James City County affordable?

Housing in James City County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $396,800 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.25, with rents averaging $1,435/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is James City County growing or shrinking?

James City County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +1.4% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +2.9% clip. Home values shifted +0.4% in the past year.

Are people moving to James City County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 4.95% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests James City County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Fairfax County, VA 8 Lynchburg city, VA 9 Alexandria city, VA 7 Stafford County, VA 10 Loudoun County, VA 4 Arlington County, VA 3 Mendocino County, CA 8 Rockdale County, GA 8