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York County, VA

District 1

RANK #818 / 996 NAT  ·  #26 / 37 VA  ·  POP 70,238

1YR FORECAST: +0.8%

5YR OUTLOOK: +15%

#4 Most Overvalued
Our model projects York County's housing market at +0.8% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why York County?

York County, Virginia, is perhaps best known for Yorktown, the site of the decisive 1781 Revolutionary War victory that secured American independence. Located on the Virginia Peninsula in the Hampton Roads metropolitan area, York County offers a blend of historical significance and natural beauty. The county is bordered by the York River, providing scenic waterfronts and opportunities for boating, fishing, and beachcombing along its over 200 miles of coastline. Commuters benefit from proximity to Interstate 64 and U.S. Route 17, connecting them to nearby cities like Williamsburg, Newport News, and Hampton. The community maintains a small-town feel despite its amenities. Outdoor enthusiasts can explore numerous parks, including New Quarter Park with its extensive hiking and biking trails, and Back Creek Park, a hub for pickleball.

Life in York County is often characterized by its family-friendly environment and highly-rated public schools. The York County School Division, with its 19 schools, offers diverse programs, including magnet schools and the International Baccalaureate program. The economy is supported by a mix of sectors, including tourism, with attractions like the Yorktown Battlefield and the American Revolution Museum at Yorktown drawing visitors. Recent economic developments show growth in sectors such as early childhood education and local dining, with new facilities and expansions addressing community needs and enhancing commercial corridors. The county also sees ongoing investment in various business sectors.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
23.0x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
+1.6%

Above national median

Climate & Terrain
1.3

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
16x

Above national median (13x)

Housing looks overvalued at 23.0x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Naval Weapons Station Yorktown Military
    2,500+
  2. 2
    York County School Division Education
  3. 3
    York County Government Government
  4. 4
    Sentara Healthcare
  5. 5
    United States Coast Guard Training Center Yorktown Military
  6. 6
    Water Country USA Hospitality
  7. 7
    Fairfield Resorts (timeshares) Hospitality
  8. 8
    Kings Creek Plantation (timeshares) Hospitality
  9. 9
    Walmart Retail
  10. 10
    Lowe's Retail

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

York County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
70,238
+0.87% YoY
Median Household Income
$105,154
Median Home Value
$387,200
+1.62% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,701
Average Annual Pay
$53,363
+7.0% YoY
Employment
22,164
+1.6% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2716
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
5.43%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
49.5%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$402,000
Days on Market
43
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
2.8
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
99.3%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
26.9%
Listings w/ Price Drops
10.4%
Building Permits (2024)
187
Single-Family Permits
181

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
3.1
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
10.4
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
57.8
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Capital Investment

$600M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
QTS Data Center Campus
QTS
$500M Proposed
York County Light Industrial Park and Solar Farm
Eastern Virginia Regional Industrial Facility Authority (EVRIFA)
$50M Planned
Residential Developments (Multiple Communities)
Various (e.g., Stanley Martin Homes, Greenwood Homes, Marquee Homes, Corinth Residential LLC)
$50M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +0.9% 67 percentile
Income Growth +9.4% 70 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.7% 15 percentile
Home Price Change +1.6% 54 percentile
Rent Growth +6.0% 87 percentile
Price/Rent 16x 24 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is York County, VA a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — York County scores just 17/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #818 of 996 counties. Job growth at +1.6% and median household income of $105,154 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is York County affordable?

Housing in York County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $387,200 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.27, with rents averaging $1,701/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is York County growing or shrinking?

York County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +0.9% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +1.6% clip. Home values shifted +1.6% in the past year.

Are people moving to York County?

In significant numbers — 5.43% of York County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Suffolk city, VA 17 Montgomery County, VA 16 Albemarle County, VA 16 Roanoke County, VA 19 Pittsylvania County, VA 14 Roanoke city, VA 24 Moore County, NC 17 Starr County, TX 16