RANK #794 / 1001 NAT · #27 / 37 VA · POP 95,008
1YR FORECAST: -0.7%
5YR OUTLOOK: +23%
Frederick County, Virginia, is known for its historical significance, particularly its role in the Civil War, with Winchester, the county seat, changing hands numerous times. Located in the northernmost part of the Shenandoah Valley, about 80 miles from Washington, D.C., the county offers a blend of small-town atmosphere and convenient access to a major metropolitan area. The landscape features scenic mountains and opportunities for outdoor recreation like hiking, biking, and fishing, notably at Sherando Park in Stephens City. Commuting options include access to Interstates 81 and 66, and ride-sharing services are available for those traveling towards the Washington D.C. area.
Life in Frederick County often appeals to families, with public schools generally performing above average. The community has seen an influx of new residents, contributing to its growth. The local economy is diverse, with growth in sectors such as manufacturing, corporate services, and information technology. Major employers contribute to a dynamic environment for career development, and the area is recognized for its business landscape.
Frederick County's data profile doesn't fit any single market profile cleanly — its housing, labor, and demographic signals pull in different directions (home prices +0.9% YoY, population +1.8%, wages +1.0%). About 414 U.S. counties show this kind of mixed-signal pattern.
See all 414 Idiosyncratic Markets counties →Overvalued relative to economy
Below national median
Below-average climate & terrain
Below national median (15x)
Housing looks overvalued at 15.3x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.
Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.
Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).
Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →
Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →
Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →
| PROJECT | AMOUNT | STATUS |
|---|---|---|
|
Data Center Overlay Zone Development (Estimated)
Various (within CDI-OZ)
|
$500M | Planned/Proposed |
|
Clasen Quality Chocolate Production Facility
Clasen Quality Chocolate
|
$230M | Under Construction |
|
Bartonsville Energy Facility
Bartonsville Energy Facility, LLC (Torch Clean Energy)
|
$130M | Operating |
|
Amazon E-commerce Warehouse and Distribution Center
Amazon
|
$100M | Operating |
|
Foxglove Solar Facility
Foxglove Solar LLC (Urban Grid)
|
$75M | Operating |
|
ZM Sheet Metal Relocation and Expansion
ZM Sheet Metal
|
$50M | Under Construction |
Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.
Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.
At 20/100, Frederick County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 1001 counties we track. Median income of $97,606 combined with job growth of -2.8% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.
Housing in Frederick County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $386,000 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.25, with rents averaging $1,507/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.
Frederick County is attracting residents (population +1.8% YoY) even as the job market softens with employment at -2.8%. Housing values changed +0.9% over the past 12 months. People may be moving here for affordability or lifestyle reasons rather than job opportunities.
There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 4.76% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Frederick County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.