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Frederick County, VA

Stonewall

RANK #595 / 996 NAT  ·  #15 / 37 VA  ·  POP 92,007

1YR FORECAST: +0.3%

5YR OUTLOOK: +21%

#17 Most Overvalued
Frederick County's housing market is projected to grow +0.3% over the next year, below the national average.

[01] Why Frederick County?

Frederick County, Virginia, is known for its historical significance, particularly its role in the Civil War, with Winchester, the county seat, changing hands numerous times. Located in the northernmost part of the Shenandoah Valley, about 80 miles from Washington, D.C., the county offers a blend of small-town atmosphere and convenient access to a major metropolitan area. The landscape features scenic mountains and opportunities for outdoor recreation like hiking, biking, and fishing, notably at Sherando Park in Stephens City. Commuting options include access to Interstates 81 and 66, and ride-sharing services are available for those traveling towards the Washington D.C. area.

Life in Frederick County often appeals to families, with public schools generally performing above average. The community has seen an influx of new residents, contributing to its growth. The local economy is diverse, with growth in sectors such as manufacturing, corporate services, and information technology. Major employers contribute to a dynamic environment for career development, and the area is recognized for its business landscape.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
12.6x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
+0.8%

Below national median

Climate & Terrain
-0.4

Below-average climate & terrain

Price/Rent
14x

Above national median (13x)

Housing looks overvalued at 12.6x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Navy Federal Credit Union Finance
    2,500+
  2. 2
    Valley Health System Healthcare
    1,000+
  3. 3
    Frederick County Public Schools Education
  4. 4
    Amazon Logistics
  5. 5
    FEMA (U.S. Department of Homeland Security) Government
  6. 6
    Trex Manufacturing
  7. 7
    Walmart Retail
  8. 8
    County of Frederick Government
  9. 9
    The Home Depot Retail
    500+
  10. 10
    H.P. Hood, Inc. Manufacturing

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Frederick County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
92,007
+1.91% YoY
Median Household Income
$92,443
Median Home Value
$333,600
+0.82% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,347
Average Annual Pay
$62,069
+5.7% YoY
Employment
39,388
+2.3% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2771
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
5.58%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
29.1%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$405,000
Days on Market
83
Slower market
Months of Supply
3.1
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.0%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
20.2%
Listings w/ Price Drops
26.9%
Building Permits (2024)
872
Single-Family Permits
872

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

A
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
1.9
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
9.6
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
69.7
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
43.7
Good
Good Air Days
66%
696 of 1,059 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
9
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
44
2022
43
2023
44
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$1,085M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Data Center Overlay Zone Development (Estimated)
Various (within CDI-OZ)
$500M Planned/Proposed
Clasen Quality Chocolate Production Facility
Clasen Quality Chocolate
$230M Under Construction
Bartonsville Energy Facility
Bartonsville Energy Facility, LLC (Torch Clean Energy)
$130M Operating
Amazon E-commerce Warehouse and Distribution Center
Amazon
$100M Operating
Foxglove Solar Facility
Foxglove Solar LLC (Urban Grid)
$75M Operating
ZM Sheet Metal Relocation and Expansion
ZM Sheet Metal
$50M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +1.9% 88 percentile
Income Growth +9.6% 75 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.8% 73 percentile
Home Price Change +0.8% 42 percentile
Rent Growth +3.6% 63 percentile
Price/Rent 14x 48 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Frederick County, VA a good place to move to?

Frederick County scores 40/100 on the Boom Town Index, landing in the middle of the pack among 996 U.S. counties (#595). Median household income is $92,443 and job growth is running at +2.3%. The data points to a county with mixed signals — some positive indicators alongside areas that lag faster-growing peers.

Is Frederick County affordable?

Housing in Frederick County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $333,600 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.28, with rents averaging $1,347/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Frederick County growing or shrinking?

Frederick County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +1.9% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +2.3% clip. Home values shifted +0.8% in the past year.

Are people moving to Frederick County?

In significant numbers — 5.58% of Frederick County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Bedford County, VA 40 Henry County, VA 41 Harrisonburg city, VA 39 Washington County, VA 42 Campbell County, VA 42 Spotsylvania County, VA 38 Putnam County, NY 40 Tooele County, UT 40