37 counties · Boom Town Index

Virginia

Avg BTI Score
40 / 100
Population
6.7M
+0.6% avg growth
National Rank
#38 of 51

State Overview

Virginia's economy is experiencing a period of modest growth, with a projected slowdown in 2026 before a rebound in 2027. The state's gross domestic product is expected to grow by 0.3% in 2026, a decrease from 1.5% in 2025. This performance is influenced by national conditions and Virginia's ties to the federal government, which has seen workforce reductions. Job losses are anticipated in government employment, professional services, and manufacturing in 2026, while healthcare services and construction are projected to continue growing.

The housing market in Virginia shows mixed signals. Statewide, the median home price reached $446,000 in 2025 and is predicted to decrease by 1% in 2026 before increasing in 2027. However, Northern Virginia's median home price was higher at $715,000 in December 2025, with single-family home prices expected to rise in 2026. Rent prices are projected to continue increasing in 2026. Migration data indicates a shift, with Virginia moving from a net in-migration state in 2024 to a net out-migration state in 2025, according to U-Haul data, though Census Bureau data suggests a net positive domestic migration for 2024 and 2025.

Median Household Income
$88,783
State median across 37 counties
Median Home Value
$353,000
Income-to-home ratio: 0.25
Building Permits
24,617
Total residential permits
Natural Amenity
5.9 / 10
#32 of 49 · USDA scale

Virginia Counties

37 counties
Rank County BTI Score Safety Proj. Growth GDP Pop Growth Income Ratio Home Price Climate P/R
01 Franklin County 90 C +1.7% — +0.3% +0.7% 17.1x +3.3% 1.9 24x
02 Bedford County 85 B +1.5% — +0.8% +1.7% 25.5x +4.1% 1.4 18x
03 Culpeper County 84 B +1.7% — +1.6% +4.1% 23.6x +2.8% -1.1 17x
04 Chesapeake city 83 C +1.9% — +0.6% +1.3% 14.7x +3.1% 0.5 16x
05 Augusta County 81 B+ +2.7% — +0.4% +2.6% 12.5x +4.9% -0.1 16x
06 Virginia Beach city 81 C+ +1.8% — -0.2% +2.5% 16.1x +3.1% 1.2 16x
07 Pittsylvania County 75 C+ +0.8% — -0.5% -0.1% 14.5x +1.5% -0.3 16x
08 Washington County 74 B +1.2% — +0.0% +2.8% 10.8x +0.9% -0.2 21x
09 Harrisonburg city 68 B+ +2.0% — -0.2% +4.2% 9.2x +4.8% 1.2 15x
10 Fauquier County 59 B +1.5% — +0.9% +0.5% 26.3x +3.3% -1.5 22x
11 Hampton city 59 F -0.3% — +0.2% +2.8% 10.2x +0.0% 1.3 13x
12 Roanoke County 58 B- +1.4% — +0.2% +0.9% 13.2x +3.8% 0.0 16x
13 Newport News city 56 F +1.0% — -0.3% +4.4% 6.7x +1.7% 1.3 14x
14 Hanover County 52 B+ +1.7% — +1.1% +3.0% 13.0x +3.3% -2.1 17x
15 Spotsylvania County 40 B +0.4% — +1.9% +2.9% 28.8x +0.8% -1.0 17x
16 Richmond city 38 F +0.4% — +0.8% +3.1% 5.5x +0.9% -0.9 18x
17 Rockingham County 37 B+ +0.2% — +1.0% +2.8% 12.9x +2.5% 1.2 13x
18 Campbell County 37 C+ -1.0% — -0.2% +5.7% 8.3x +1.5% -0.4 13x
19 Chesterfield County 34 C +0.6% — +1.7% +3.0% 14.8x +1.9% -0.8 16x
20 Norfolk city 30 F -0.2% — -0.6% +3.3% 6.2x +0.8% 0.5 14x
21 Portsmouth city 29 F +0.2% — -0.1% +2.6% 7.9x +0.1% 0.5 13x
22 Henrico County 27 C +0.6% — +0.4% +2.8% 8.5x +1.3% -0.9 17x
23 Montgomery County 24 A +0.8% — -0.1% +2.8% 11.1x +2.1% 0.3 14x
24 Henry County 22 D -1.0% — -0.8% +4.8% 7.9x -3.5% -0.3 14x
25 James City County 22 B+ -0.1% — +1.2% +2.8% 21.8x +0.2% 1.1 18x
26 Prince William County 22 B -0.1% — +0.9% +2.0% 26.9x +0.5% -0.9 20x
27 Frederick County 20 A -0.7% — +1.8% +2.1% 15.3x +0.9% -0.4 14x
28 York County 20 B +0.6% — +0.6% +1.5% 24.3x +1.6% 1.3 18x
29 Lynchburg city 20 C -0.6% — +0.3% -3.1% 6.2x -0.3% -0.4 14x
30 Suffolk city 19 C +1.5% — +2.2% +2.9% 12.7x +2.2% 0.2 15x
31 Albemarle County 18 B+ +0.3% — +1.1% +1.7% 11.6x +1.3% -0.0 20x
32 Roanoke city 14 F +0.0% — -0.3% +5.1% 4.4x +1.8% 0.0 12x
33 Loudoun County 8 A -0.3% — +1.4% +1.7% 18.1x -0.0% -0.6 23x
34 Stafford County 8 B -0.2% — +1.8% +3.0% 23.6x +0.7% -0.1 18x
35 Fairfax County 2 A -1.1% — +0.3% +2.4% 11.5x -1.4% -1.3 25x
36 Alexandria city 1 B -0.8% — +0.1% +5.3% 15.3x +1.1% -2.2 27x
37 Arlington County 1 A -1.3% — +0.3% +1.4% 8.9x -0.5% -2.2 28x

Capital Investment in Virginia

Tracked Projects · Public Records
$320.6B
Total tracked investment
31,729
Jobs announced
167
Projects across 34 counties

Where the money is going

Data Centers $136.7B 43%
Manufacturing $118.8B 37%
Energy $51.3B 16%
Commercial/Residential $5.2B 2%
Infrastructure $5.0B 2%
Military/Government $1.9B 1%

Top counties by investment

  1. 01 Virginia Beach city $120.2B
    5 projects · 2,100 jobs
  2. 02 Pittsylvania County $76.7B
    6 projects · 5,065 jobs
  3. 03 Stafford County $19.4B
    6 projects · 1,650 jobs
  4. 04 Chesterfield County $14.0B
    6 projects · 1,950 jobs
  5. 05 Chesapeake city $11.8B
    6 projects · 1,400 jobs
  6. 06 Portsmouth city $11.8B
    6 projects · 3,360 jobs

Largest projects in Virginia

Project County Amount Status
Amazon Robotics Fulfillment Center and Delivery Station
Amazon · Manufacturing · 1,000 jobs
 Virginia Beach city $109.0B Under Construction
Southern Virginia Megasite at Berry Hill Data Center Campus
SAC III Acquisition Co. (affiliated with Stack Infrastructure) · Data Centers · 2,050 jobs
 Pittsylvania County $73.0B Proposed
Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW)
Dominion Energy · Energy · 1,100 jobs
 Virginia Beach city $11.0B Under Construction
Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) Commercial Project (Chesapeake infrastructure)
Dominion Energy Virginia · Energy · 1,100 jobs
 Chesapeake city $10.7B Under Construction
Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) Project
Dominion Energy, Siemens Gamesa, Ørsted North America · Energy · 2,000 jobs
 Portsmouth city $10.7B Under Construction
Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) Commercial Project
Dominion Energy · Energy · 1,100 jobs
 Norfolk city $9.8B Under Construction
Google Data Center Campus (Project Peanut)
Google · Data Centers
 Chesterfield County $9.0B Under Construction
Google Data Center Expansion (Loudoun County)
Google · Data Centers
 Loudoun County $9.0B Planned
→ Methodology · How We Tracked $4T Across 858 Counties

Source: public records, corporate announcements, state EDC filings. Tracking projects with $25M+ in announced investment or 500+ jobs. Some figures are estimates where exact totals weren't disclosed.

Virginia shaded relief terrain map
SRTM 30m shaded relief
State Spotlight · 2026-04-29

Virginia's economy faces federal headwinds, housing market cools

Economic drivers

Virginia's economic growth in 2025 was 1.5%, a pace below the national average. This is partly due to the state's reliance on federal government contracts and employment, which saw reductions. Healthcare services and construction sectors are projected to see continued job growth.

Housing market right now

The statewide median home price in Virginia is forecast to slightly decrease by 1% in 2026 to $442,000, after reaching $446,000 in 2025. Northern Virginia, however, expects single-family home prices to rise by 1.9% from 2025 to 2026, with increased inventory. Rents across the state are projected to continue their upward trend, rising by 3.4% in 2026.

Migration patterns

Virginia experienced a net out-migration in 2025 according to U-Haul data, dropping from 17th to 36th in their growth index. Conversely, U.S. Census Bureau data indicates Virginia had net positive domestic migration in 2024 and 2025, with more people moving into the state than leaving. The Richmond region led the state in domestic migration in 2024, with a net inflow of 7,346 people.

Headwinds

Virginia's economy is expected to slow in 2026, with a projected decrease of 10,300 jobs and an unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. Sectors such as government employment, professional services, and manufacturing are anticipated to experience job losses. Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads are also experiencing job losses.

Key facts

  • Virginia's economy expanded by 1.5% in 2025. (UVA Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service, March 2026)
  • The statewide median home price in Virginia reached $446,000 in 2025. (UVA Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service, March 2026)
  • Virginia's minimum wage increased to $12.77 per hour on January 1, 2026, with further increases planned. (Virginia Retail Federation, March 2026)
  • The Hampton Roads Bridge-Tunnel expansion, a $3.9 billion project, is expected to be substantially complete by February 2027. (Virginia Business, March 2026)
  • Virginia's population grew by 60,465 from 2024-2025, with immigration accounting for the majority of this growth. (U.S. Census Bureau, January 2026)
Updated 2026-04-29 · grounded research
11 sources
  1. virginia.edu
  2. virginiabusiness.com
  3. thejamilbrothers.com
  4. baconsrebellion.com
  5. cardinalnews.org
  6. virginiarealtors.org
  7. nvar.com
  8. accio.com
  9. cardinalnews.org
  10. virginiaretailfederation.com
  11. virginiabusiness.com