37 counties · Boom Town Index

Virginia

Avg BTI Score
43 / 100
Population
6.7M
+0.6% avg growth
National Rank
#38 of 51

State Overview

Virginia's economy is experiencing a period of modest growth, with a projected slowdown in 2026 before a rebound in 2027. The state's gross domestic product is expected to grow by 0.3% in 2026, a decrease from 1.5% in 2025. This performance is influenced by national conditions and Virginia's ties to the federal government, which has seen workforce reductions. Job losses are anticipated in government employment, professional services, and manufacturing in 2026, while healthcare services and construction are projected to continue growing.

The housing market in Virginia shows mixed signals. Statewide, the median home price reached $446,000 in 2025 and is predicted to decrease by 1% in 2026 before increasing in 2027. However, Northern Virginia's median home price was higher at $715,000 in December 2025, with single-family home prices expected to rise in 2026. Rent prices are projected to continue increasing in 2026. Migration data indicates a shift, with Virginia moving from a net in-migration state in 2024 to a net out-migration state in 2025, according to U-Haul data, though Census Bureau data suggests a net positive domestic migration for 2024 and 2025.

Median Household Income
$88,783
State median across 37 counties
Median Home Value
$353,000
Income-to-home ratio: 0.25
Building Permits
24,617
Total residential permits
Natural Amenity
5.9 / 10
#32 of 49 · USDA scale

Virginia Counties

37 counties
Rank County BTI Score Safety Proj. Growth GDP Pop Growth Income Ratio Home Price Climate P/R
01 Harrisonburg city 92 B+ +2.5% — -0.2% +4.2% 9.2x +3.6% 1.2 16x
02 Culpeper County 88 B +2.8% — +1.6% +4.1% 23.6x +3.1% -1.1 17x
03 Chesapeake city 82 C +2.4% — +0.6% +1.3% 14.7x +3.6% 0.5 15x
04 Franklin County 78 C +2.6% — +0.3% +0.7% 17.1x +4.0% 1.9 24x
05 James City County 78 B+ +2.5% — +1.2% +2.8% 21.8x +1.6% 1.1 17x
06 Fauquier County 77 B +3.2% — +0.9% +0.5% 26.3x +2.9% -1.5 20x
07 Virginia Beach city 74 C+ +2.4% — -0.2% +2.5% 16.1x +3.3% 1.2 15x
08 Bedford County 70 B +1.6% — +0.8% +1.7% 25.5x +4.7% 1.4 17x
09 Hampton city 70 F +1.5% — +0.2% +2.8% 10.2x +2.0% 1.3 12x
10 Roanoke County 67 B- +2.5% — +0.2% +0.9% 13.2x +3.6% 0.0 15x
11 Montgomery County 64 A +1.6% — -0.1% +2.8% 11.1x +2.8% 0.3 15x
12 Richmond city 62 F +1.2% — +0.8% +3.1% 5.5x +1.8% -0.9 18x
13 Spotsylvania County 58 B +1.9% — +1.9% +2.9% 28.7x +1.0% -1.0 16x
14 York County 53 B +2.5% — +0.6% +1.5% 24.3x +2.7% 1.3 18x
15 Suffolk city 53 C +2.6% — +2.2% +2.9% 12.7x +2.7% 0.2 14x
16 Augusta County 49 B+ +2.4% — +0.4% +2.6% 12.5x +5.8% -0.1 15x
17 Rockingham County 49 B+ +1.6% — +1.0% +2.8% 12.9x +2.4% 1.2 14x
18 Portsmouth city 47 F +0.9% — -0.1% +2.6% 8.0x +1.9% 0.5 13x
19 Norfolk city 43 F +1.0% — -0.6% +3.3% 6.3x +1.3% 0.5 14x
20 Campbell County 38 C+ +1.6% — -0.2% +5.7% 8.3x +2.1% -0.4 10x
21 Hanover County 37 B+ +2.8% — +1.1% +3.0% 13.0x +3.7% -2.1 16x
22 Pittsylvania County 33 C+ +1.0% — -0.5% -0.1% 14.5x +2.5% -0.3 16x
23 Prince William County 32 B +1.5% — +0.9% +2.0% 26.9x +1.1% -0.9 19x
24 Washington County 25 B +2.1% — +0.0% +2.8% 10.9x +2.5% -0.2 21x
25 Chesterfield County 24 C +1.4% — +1.7% +3.0% 14.8x +2.6% -0.8 16x
26 Lynchburg city 24 C +0.3% — +0.3% -3.1% 6.2x +0.2% -0.4 15x
27 Frederick County 22 A +0.4% — +1.8% +2.1% 15.3x +1.3% -0.4 15x
28 Henrico County 20 C +1.6% — +0.4% +2.8% 8.5x +1.7% -0.9 17x
29 Roanoke city 17 F +1.8% — -0.3% +5.1% 4.4x +0.7% 0.0 12x
30 Loudoun County 13 A +1.4% — +1.4% +1.7% 18.0x +1.4% -0.6 21x
31 Newport News city 13 F +2.1% — -0.3% +4.4% 6.7x +2.8% 1.3 14x
32 Stafford County 12 B +1.5% — +1.8% +3.0% 23.5x +0.6% -0.1 17x
33 Fairfax County 6 A +1.6% — +0.3% +2.4% 11.5x +0.8% -1.3 24x
34 Arlington County 5 A +1.5% — +0.3% +1.4% 8.9x +0.8% -2.2 28x
35 Albemarle County 2 B+ +0.6% — +1.1% +1.7% 11.6x +1.9% -0.0 21x
36 Henry County 1 D -1.1% — -0.8% +4.8% 7.9x -4.3% -0.3 14x
37 Alexandria city 0 B +1.5% — +0.1% +5.3% 15.3x +1.8% -2.2 27x

Capital Investment in Virginia

Tracked Projects · Public Records
$320.6B
Total tracked investment
31,729
Jobs announced
167
Projects across 34 counties

Where the money is going

Data Centers $136.7B 43%
Manufacturing $118.8B 37%
Energy $51.3B 16%
Commercial/Residential $5.2B 2%
Infrastructure $5.0B 2%
Military/Government $1.9B 1%

Top counties by investment

  1. 01 Virginia Beach city $120.2B
    5 projects · 2,100 jobs
  2. 02 Pittsylvania County $76.7B
    6 projects · 5,065 jobs
  3. 03 Stafford County $19.4B
    6 projects · 1,650 jobs
  4. 04 Chesterfield County $14.0B
    6 projects · 1,950 jobs
  5. 05 Chesapeake city $11.8B
    6 projects · 1,400 jobs
  6. 06 Portsmouth city $11.8B
    6 projects · 3,360 jobs

Largest projects in Virginia

Project County Amount Status
Amazon Robotics Fulfillment Center and Delivery Station
Amazon · Manufacturing · 1,000 jobs
 Virginia Beach city $109.0B Under Construction
Southern Virginia Megasite at Berry Hill Data Center Campus
SAC III Acquisition Co. (affiliated with Stack Infrastructure) · Data Centers · 2,050 jobs
 Pittsylvania County $73.0B Proposed
Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW)
Dominion Energy · Energy · 1,100 jobs
 Virginia Beach city $11.0B Under Construction
Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) Commercial Project (Chesapeake infrastructure)
Dominion Energy Virginia · Energy · 1,100 jobs
 Chesapeake city $10.7B Under Construction
Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) Project
Dominion Energy, Siemens Gamesa, Ørsted North America · Energy · 2,000 jobs
 Portsmouth city $10.7B Under Construction
Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) Commercial Project
Dominion Energy · Energy · 1,100 jobs
 Norfolk city $9.8B Under Construction
Google Data Center Campus (Project Peanut)
Google · Data Centers
 Chesterfield County $9.0B Under Construction
Google Data Center Expansion (Loudoun County)
Google · Data Centers
 Loudoun County $9.0B Planned
→ Methodology · How We Tracked $4T Across 858 Counties

Source: public records, corporate announcements, state EDC filings. Tracking projects with $25M+ in announced investment or 500+ jobs. Some figures are estimates where exact totals weren't disclosed.

Virginia shaded relief terrain map
SRTM 30m shaded relief
State Spotlight · 2026-04-29

Virginia's economy faces federal headwinds, housing market cools

Economic drivers

Virginia's economic growth in 2025 was 1.5%, a pace below the national average. This is partly due to the state's reliance on federal government contracts and employment, which saw reductions. Healthcare services and construction sectors are projected to see continued job growth.

Housing market right now

The statewide median home price in Virginia is forecast to slightly decrease by 1% in 2026 to $442,000, after reaching $446,000 in 2025. Northern Virginia, however, expects single-family home prices to rise by 1.9% from 2025 to 2026, with increased inventory. Rents across the state are projected to continue their upward trend, rising by 3.4% in 2026.

Migration patterns

Virginia experienced a net out-migration in 2025 according to U-Haul data, dropping from 17th to 36th in their growth index. Conversely, U.S. Census Bureau data indicates Virginia had net positive domestic migration in 2024 and 2025, with more people moving into the state than leaving. The Richmond region led the state in domestic migration in 2024, with a net inflow of 7,346 people.

Headwinds

Virginia's economy is expected to slow in 2026, with a projected decrease of 10,300 jobs and an unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. Sectors such as government employment, professional services, and manufacturing are anticipated to experience job losses. Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads are also experiencing job losses.

Key facts

  • Virginia's economy expanded by 1.5% in 2025. (UVA Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service, March 2026)
  • The statewide median home price in Virginia reached $446,000 in 2025. (UVA Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service, March 2026)
  • Virginia's minimum wage increased to $12.77 per hour on January 1, 2026, with further increases planned. (Virginia Retail Federation, March 2026)
  • The Hampton Roads Bridge-Tunnel expansion, a $3.9 billion project, is expected to be substantially complete by February 2027. (Virginia Business, March 2026)
  • Virginia's population grew by 60,465 from 2024-2025, with immigration accounting for the majority of this growth. (U.S. Census Bureau, January 2026)
Updated 2026-04-29 · grounded research
11 sources
  1. virginia.edu
  2. virginiabusiness.com
  3. thejamilbrothers.com
  4. baconsrebellion.com
  5. cardinalnews.org
  6. virginiarealtors.org
  7. nvar.com
  8. accio.com
  9. cardinalnews.org
  10. virginiaretailfederation.com
  11. virginiabusiness.com

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