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Arlington County, VA

RANK #955 / 996 NAT  ·  #37 / 37 VA  ·  POP 235,845

1YR FORECAST: -0.8%

5YR OUTLOOK: +8%

Our model projects Arlington County's housing market at -0.8% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Arlington County?

Arlington County, Virginia, stands out for its unique governmental structure, operating as a single, unified jurisdiction without incorporated cities or towns within its borders. Located directly across the Potomac River from Washington, D.C., it offers a commute to the capital that can be as short as 10 to 20 minutes via its extensive Metrorail system, which includes 11 stations. The community blends urban density with accessible green spaces, boasting over 1,100 acres of parks and 50 miles of paved trails, many with views of the D.C. skyline. This focus on walkability and public transit contributes to a community feel that prioritizes convenience and outdoor activity.

Life in Arlington County is often characterized by its high quality and diverse population, attracting families, young professionals, and retirees. The public school system is highly rated, and the county is recognized for its safety. The economy, historically influenced by the federal government, is diversifying with growth in sectors like cybersecurity, defense contracting, and artificial intelligence. Commercial and residential development continues, with an emphasis on sustainable urban planning and creating mixed-use neighborhoods around transit corridors.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
4.8x

Above national median (4.7x)

GDP Growth
+1.4%

Below national median

Home Prices
+0.0%

Well below national median

Climate & Terrain
-2.2

Below-average climate & terrain

Price/Rent
27x

Speculative pricing

Housing is fairly valued at 4.8x relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Federal Government Government
    25,000+
  2. 2
    Arlington County Government and Schools Government
    5,000+
  3. 3
    Amazon Technology
  4. 4
    Deloitte Other
  5. 5
    Bloomberg Industry Group (BNA Bloomberg) Other
    1,000+
  6. 6
    Accenture Technology
  7. 7
    Virginia Hospital Center Healthcare
  8. 8
    Lidl Retail
  9. 9
    Nestlé USA Other
  10. 10
    Booz Allen Hamilton Other

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Arlington County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
235,845
+0.03% YoY
Median Household Income
$137,387
Median Home Value
$833,300
+0.02% 12mo
Median Rent
$2,227
Average Annual Pay
$122,856
+4.1% YoY
Employment
179,244
0.0% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1649
Less affordable than average
Migration Inflow
4.02%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
76.8%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$695,000
Days on Market
36
Active market
Months of Supply
2.7
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
100.1%
Homes selling above asking
Sold Above List
31.5%
Listings w/ Price Drops
14.6%
Building Permits (2024)
621
Single-Family Permits
190

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

A
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
1.2
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
3.1
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
29.1
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
37.7
Good
Good Air Days
85%
933 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
8
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
38
2022
37
2023
38
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$1,120M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
One Rosslyn Redevelopment
Penzance
$600M Planned
Rosslyn Office Building Redevelopment (1401 Wilson Blvd & 1400 Key Blvd)
Monday Properties
$250M Proposed
Arlington-Amazon Solar Farm (Pittsylvania County, VA)
Dominion Energy / Amazon / Arlington County
$120M Completed
Ballston One
Penzance
$100M Planned
Highlands Row Townhouses (Crystal City)
EYA LLC
$50M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +1.4% 24 percentile
Population Growth +0.0% 31 percentile
Income Growth +7.2% 20 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.4% 26 percentile
Home Price Change +0.0% 31 percentile
Rent Growth -1.4% 4 percentile
Price/Rent 27x 1 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Arlington County, VA a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Arlington County scores just 3/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #955 of 996 counties. median household income of $137,387 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Arlington County affordable?

Arlington County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $833,300 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.16 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $2,227/month on average.

Is Arlington County growing or shrinking?

Population and employment in Arlington County are both close to flat — population +0.0% YoY and jobs 0.0%. Home values shifted +0.0% over the past 12 months. A steady-state county, neither expanding quickly nor shrinking.

Are people moving to Arlington County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 4.02% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Arlington County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Loudoun County, VA 4 Alexandria city, VA 7 Fairfax County, VA 8 James City County, VA 8 Lynchburg city, VA 9 Stafford County, VA 10 Grayson County, TX 3 Hays County, TX 4