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Fairfax County, VA

Lee

RANK #904 / 996 NAT  ·  #33 / 37 VA  ·  POP 1,145,354

1YR FORECAST: -0.2%

5YR OUTLOOK: +12%

#42 Most Overvalued
Our model projects Fairfax County's housing market at -0.2% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Fairfax County?

Fairfax County, Virginia, is a large, diverse county that forms part of the Washington D.C. metropolitan area, bordering Arlington County, Alexandria, and Loudoun County, among others. It's a place that blends suburban living with access to urban amenities, offering a mix of established communities and more modern developments like Tysons and Reston. The county boasts a significant amount of green space, with over 55% tree canopy cover, and numerous parks like Great Falls Park, Burke Lake Park, and the Washington & Old Dominion Trail provide ample opportunities for hiking, biking, boating, and other outdoor activities. Living here means being part of a community that values education and offers a high median household income, nearly double the national average.

The housing market in Fairfax County is notably expensive, with median home values significantly higher than the national average, making it challenging for many buyers. This high cost of living, particularly for housing and childcare, has contributed to some residents moving to more affordable areas. Recent economic developments show both challenges and investments. Fairfax County saw a 5.2% GDP growth year-over-year in 2023 and continues to attract capital investment, especially in artificial intelligence and defense tech startups. For example, Blue Sky Innovators is investing $7 million to expand its operations in Reston, creating 175 new jobs. However, the county is also facing potential economic headwinds due to federal budget cuts, which could lead to significant job losses in both federal and contractor positions, impacting local tax revenues.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
10.5x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
-1.0%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
-1.3

Below-average climate & terrain

Price/Rent
23x

Prices detached from rents

Housing looks overvalued at 10.5x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    U.S. Federal Government Government
    25,000+
  2. 2
    Fairfax County Public Schools Education
  3. 3
    Fairfax County Government Government
    10,000+
  4. 4
    Inova Health System Healthcare
  5. 5
    Commonwealth of Virginia Government
    5,000+
  6. 6
    Capital One Finance
  7. 7
    Freddie Mac Finance
  8. 8
    General Dynamics Technology
  9. 9
    Booz Allen Hamilton Other
  10. 10
    Northrop Grumman Technology

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Fairfax County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
1,145,354
-0.13% YoY
Median Household Income
$145,165
Median Home Value
$666,900
-1.04% 12mo
Median Rent
$2,159
Average Annual Pay
$114,100
+6.1% YoY
Employment
636,430
+1.1% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2177
Near national average
Migration Inflow
2.97%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
64.1%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$723,000
Days on Market
33
Active market
Months of Supply
1.9
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
100.5%
Homes selling above asking
Sold Above List
42.0%
Listings w/ Price Drops
13.3%
Building Permits (2024)
2,861
Single-Family Permits
1,032

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

A
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
1.9
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
5.2
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
36.8
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B-
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
46.7
Good
Good Air Days
60%
657 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
14
Includes 1 Very Unhealthy
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
47
2022
47
2023
46
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$167M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Data Center at Stonecroft Blvd
Starwood Capital Group (SCG Capital Holdings LLC)
$167M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth -0.1% 23 percentile
Income Growth +8.3% 45 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.8% 73 percentile
Home Price Change -1.0% 21 percentile
Rent Growth +0.3% 13 percentile
Price/Rent 23x 3 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Fairfax County, VA a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Fairfax County scores just 8/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #904 of 996 counties. Job growth at +1.1% and median household income of $145,165 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Fairfax County affordable?

Fairfax County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $666,900 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.22 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $2,159/month on average.

Is Fairfax County growing or shrinking?

Employers in Fairfax County are hiring — job growth of +1.1% — but the population is close to flat (-0.1% YoY). Home values moved -1.0% over the past year. Labor demand is outpacing local population growth, which tends to tighten wages and housing.

Are people moving to Fairfax County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 2.97% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Fairfax County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

James City County, VA 8 Lynchburg city, VA 9 Alexandria city, VA 7 Stafford County, VA 10 Loudoun County, VA 4 Arlington County, VA 3 Mecklenburg County, NC 8 DeKalb County, GA 8