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Stafford County, VA

Hartwood

RANK #889 / 996 NAT  ·  #31 / 37 VA  ·  POP 157,606

1YR FORECAST: +0.6%

5YR OUTLOOK: +12%

#44 Most Overvalued
Our model projects Stafford County's housing market at +0.6% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Stafford County?

Government Island, a 17-acre park in Stafford County, holds a unique place in American history as the quarry that supplied Aquia sandstone for iconic Washington D.C. buildings like the White House and the U.S. Capitol. Located approximately 40 miles south of Washington D.C., Stafford County blends suburban and rural characteristics. Commute options to Washington D.C. and Northern Virginia include the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and OmniRide bus service, with park-and-ride lots available. The county also offers extensive outdoor recreation, with parks like Widewater State Park providing access to the Potomac and Rappahannock Rivers for boating, fishing, and hiking.

Life in Stafford County often appeals to families and professionals, many of whom commute to federal and defense facilities. Stafford County Public Schools serve over 32,000 students across 33 schools, all of which are accredited. The local economy is influenced by its proximity to Marine Corps Base Quantico and a growing focus on warehousing, logistics, and government contracting. Recent economic development efforts also include broad investments in technology and infrastructure.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
10.3x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
-0.2%

Contracting economy

Home Prices
+1.2%

Below national median

Climate & Terrain
-0.1

Below-average climate & terrain

Price/Rent
16x

Above national median (13x)

Housing looks overvalued at 10.3x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Marine Corps Base Quantico Military
    25,000+
  2. 2
    GEICO Finance
    2,500+
  3. 3
    Stafford County Schools Education
    1,000+
  4. 4
    U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Government
  5. 5
    U.S. Department of Defense Government
  6. 6
    County of Stafford Government
  7. 7
    Walmart Retail
  8. 8
    McLane Mid Atlantic Logistics
    500+
  9. 9
    Stafford Hospital – Mary Washington Healthcare Healthcare
  10. 10
    Greencore USA Manufacturing
    250+

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Stafford County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
157,606
+2.21% YoY
Median Household Income
$128,036
Median Home Value
$431,900
+1.21% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,828
Average Annual Pay
$68,734
+4.3% YoY
Employment
46,071
-1.9% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2964
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
6.04%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
43.1%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$511,000
Days on Market
54
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
2.6
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
100.0%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
31.6%
Listings w/ Price Drops
12.4%
Building Permits (2024)
361
Single-Family Permits
361

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
3.2
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
9.8
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
55.6
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
35.7
Good
Good Air Days
94%
1,020 of 1,085 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
3
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
35
2022
35
2023
37
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$19,400M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Stafford Technology Center (Data Center Complex)
The Garrett Companies
$7,900M Approved
GWV Data Center
The Garrett Companies
$7,900M Proposed
Vantage Data Centers VA4 Campus
Vantage Data Centers
$2,000M Under Construction
FY2026-35 Capital Improvement Program (Transportation & Schools)
Stafford County
$1,450M Planned
Amazon Cross-Dock Fulfillment Center
Amazon
$100M Operating
Enon Road Community Solar Preserve
ESA Solar
$50M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth -0.2% 7 percentile
Population Growth +2.2% 90 percentile
Income Growth +6.9% 16 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.1% 51 percentile
Home Price Change +1.2% 49 percentile
Rent Growth +0.5% 14 percentile
Price/Rent 16x 24 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Stafford County, VA a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Stafford County scores just 10/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #889 of 996 counties. Job growth at -1.9% and median household income of $128,036 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Stafford County affordable?

Housing in Stafford County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $431,900 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.30, with rents averaging $1,828/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Stafford County growing or shrinking?

Stafford County is attracting residents (population +2.2% YoY) even as the job market softens with employment at -1.9%. Housing values changed +1.2% over the past 12 months. People may be moving here for affordability or lifestyle reasons rather than job opportunities.

Are people moving to Stafford County?

In significant numbers — 6.04% of Stafford County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Lynchburg city, VA 9 Fairfax County, VA 8 James City County, VA 8 Alexandria city, VA 7 Pittsylvania County, VA 14 Montgomery County, VA 16 Monroe County, PA 10 Fayette County, GA 10