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Davidson County, TN

RANK #981 / 1001 NAT  ·  #33 / 33 TN  ·  POP 715,388

1YR FORECAST: -3.3%

5YR OUTLOOK: +8%

Our model projects Davidson County's housing market at -3.3% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Davidson County?

Home to Nashville, Davidson County, Tennessee, is the oldest county in the Middle Tennessee region, established in 1783. The Cumberland River flows through the county, contributing to a landscape of rolling hills and forests. Commuting within Davidson County can be challenging due to traffic congestion, though public transit options like WeGo Public Transit buses and the WeGo Star commuter rail are available. The county also offers extensive outdoor recreation, with over 100 parks, 65 miles of greenways, and access to Percy Priest, Radnor, and Old Hickory Lakes.

Life in Davidson County attracts a mix of families and young professionals. The Metropolitan Nashville Public School District serves the county's communities. The economy is expanding, with growth in sectors such as healthcare, music production, and advanced manufacturing. While housing affordability is a concern for many residents, new construction is occurring, and nearby areas offer more accessible home prices.

MARKET PROFILE

Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction

Davidson County is one of 76 U.S. counties in this market profile — weaker than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of -3.2% runs above the profile's typical -3.7%.

See all 76 Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
6.3x

Below national median (11.3x)

Home Prices
-3.2%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
0.3

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
20x

Above national median (15x)

Housing is fairly valued at 6.3x relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Vanderbilt University and Medical Center Healthcare
    50,000+
  2. 2
    Metro Nashville Public Schools Education
    10,000+
  3. 3
    Metropolitan Government of Nashville and Davidson County Government
  4. 4
    State of Tennessee Government
  5. 5
    Nissan North America Manufacturing
  6. 6
    HCA Healthcare Healthcare
  7. 7
    Kroger Retail
  8. 8
    Ascension Saint Thomas Healthcare
    5,000+
  9. 9
    Amazon Technology
  10. 10
    Community Health Systems Healthcare
    2,500+

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Davidson County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
715,388
+0.78% YoY
Median Household Income
$77,853
Median Home Value
$417,400
-3.19% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,582
Average Annual Pay
$86,416
+4.0% YoY
Employment
550,582
-0.9% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1865
Near national average
Migration Inflow
3.02%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
48.4%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$490,000
Days on Market
59
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
5.3
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.0%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
15.1%
Listings w/ Price Drops
25.6%
Building Permits (2025)
5,632
Single-Family Permits
2,739

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

D
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
13.7
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
19.5
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
128.3
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well above national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

C+
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
52.0
Moderate
Good Air Days
42%
457 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
10
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
52
2022
51
2023
53
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$2,710M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Oracle World Headquarters
Oracle
$2,000M Planned
New Davidson County Detention Facility
Davidson County Sheriff's Office
$410M Proposed
Nashville I Data Center
Radius Data Centers
$100M Under Construction
Metro Nashville & Vanderbilt University Solar Initiative
Metro Nashville, Vanderbilt University, Silicon Ranch Corp.
$100M Operating
Michelson Multifamily Fund II (Davidson County Share)
Metropolitan Government of Nashville & Davidson County (investment)
$50M Operating
East Bank Development Authority Infrastructure
East Bank Development Authority
$50M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +0.8% 57 percentile
Income Growth +2.9% 54 percentile
Vacancy Rate 2.0% 6 percentile
Home Price Change -3.2% 5 percentile
Rent Growth -0.8% 7 percentile
Price/Rent 20x 18 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Davidson County, TN a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Davidson County scores just 1/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #981 of 1001 counties. Job growth at -0.9% and median household income of $77,853 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Davidson County affordable?

Davidson County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $417,400 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.19 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,582/month on average.

Is Davidson County growing or shrinking?

Davidson County's population is growing — up +0.8% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of -0.9%). Home values shifted -3.2% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.

Are people moving to Davidson County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.02% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Davidson County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Maury County, TN 6 Knox County, TN 9 Hawkins County, TN 11 Robertson County, TN 12 Shelby County, TN 15 Putnam County, TN 18 San Mateo County, CA 1 Washington County, OR 1