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Davidson County, TN

RANK #789 / 1001 NAT  ·  #23 / 33 TN  ·  POP 715,388

1YR FORECAST: -1.8%

5YR OUTLOOK: +14%

Our model projects Davidson County's housing market at -1.8% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Davidson County?

Home to Nashville, Davidson County, Tennessee, is the oldest county in the Middle Tennessee region, established in 1783. The Cumberland River flows through the county, contributing to a landscape of rolling hills and forests. Commuting within Davidson County can be challenging due to traffic congestion, though public transit options like WeGo Public Transit buses and the WeGo Star commuter rail are available. The county also offers extensive outdoor recreation, with over 100 parks, 65 miles of greenways, and access to Percy Priest, Radnor, and Old Hickory Lakes.

Life in Davidson County attracts a mix of families and young professionals. The Metropolitan Nashville Public School District serves the county's communities. The economy is expanding, with growth in sectors such as healthcare, music production, and advanced manufacturing. While housing affordability is a concern for many residents, new construction is occurring, and nearby areas offer more accessible home prices.

MARKET PROFILE

Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction

Davidson County is one of 76 U.S. counties in this market profile — stronger than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of -2.7% runs above the profile's typical -3.7%.

See all 76 Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
6.2x

Below national median (11.3x)

Home Prices
-2.7%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
0.3

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
19x

Above national median (15x)

Housing is fairly valued at 6.2x relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Vanderbilt University and Medical Center Healthcare
    50,000+
  2. 2
    Metro Nashville Public Schools Education
    10,000+
  3. 3
    Metropolitan Government of Nashville and Davidson County Government
  4. 4
    State of Tennessee Government
  5. 5
    Nissan North America Manufacturing
  6. 6
    HCA Healthcare Healthcare
  7. 7
    Kroger Retail
  8. 8
    Ascension Saint Thomas Healthcare
    5,000+
  9. 9
    Amazon Technology
  10. 10
    Community Health Systems Healthcare
    2,500+

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Davidson County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
715,388
+0.78% YoY
Median Household Income
$77,853
Median Home Value
$417,400
-2.74% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,582
Average Annual Pay
$86,199
+3.7% YoY
Employment
554,677
-0.1% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1865
Near national average
Migration Inflow
3.02%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
48.4%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$490,000
Days on Market
59
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
5.3
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.0%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
15.1%
Listings w/ Price Drops
25.6%
Building Permits (2025)
5,632
Single-Family Permits
2,739

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

D
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
13.7
per 100K · nat avg 6.5
Firearm Fatalities
19.5
per 100K · nat avg 13.4
Injury Deaths
128.3
per 100K · nat avg 83.6
vs National Average
Well above national avg
based on homicide rate
10-Year Trend
Up 37% since 2015
homicide rate, 2015 → 2025

Source: Homicide rates from CDC/NCHS vital-statistics mortality data — a multi-year average that stabilizes counts in smaller counties — compiled in the County Health Rankings 2025 release. Rates per 100,000 population; U.S. average ≈ 6.5. Grade reflects homicide rate relative to the national average. Learn more →

See where Davidson County stands nationally: safest large counties in America · highest homicide-rate counties.

[06] Air Quality

C+
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
52.0
Moderate
Good Air Days
42%
457 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
10
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
52
2022
51
2023
53
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$2,710M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Oracle World Headquarters
Oracle
$2,000M Planned
New Davidson County Detention Facility
Davidson County Sheriff's Office
$410M Proposed
Nashville I Data Center
Radius Data Centers
$100M Under Construction
Metro Nashville & Vanderbilt University Solar Initiative
Metro Nashville, Vanderbilt University, Silicon Ranch Corp.
$100M Operating
Michelson Multifamily Fund II (Davidson County Share)
Metropolitan Government of Nashville & Davidson County (investment)
$50M Operating
East Bank Development Authority Infrastructure
East Bank Development Authority
$50M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +0.8% 57 percentile
Income Growth +2.9% 54 percentile
Vacancy Rate 2.0% 6 percentile
Home Price Change -2.7% 3 percentile
Rent Growth +0.3% 7 percentile
Price/Rent 19x 19 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Davidson County, TN a good place to move to?

At 20/100, Davidson County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 1001 counties we track. Median income of $77,853 combined with job growth of -0.1% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Davidson County affordable?

Davidson County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $417,400 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.19 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,582/month on average.

Is Davidson County growing or shrinking?

Davidson County's population is growing — up +0.8% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of -0.1%). Home values shifted -2.7% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.

Are people moving to Davidson County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.02% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Davidson County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Rutherford County, TN 21 Maury County, TN 22 Sullivan County, TN 17 Sumner County, TN 25 Anderson County, TN 12 Gibson County, TN 11 Guilford County, NC 20 Washington County, OR 21