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Davidson County, TN

District 31

RANK #980 / 996 NAT  ·  #33 / 33 TN  ·  POP 709,786

1YR FORECAST: -2.5%

5YR OUTLOOK: +3%

Our model projects Davidson County's housing market at -2.5% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Davidson County?

Home to Nashville, Davidson County, Tennessee, is the oldest county in the Middle Tennessee region, established in 1783. The Cumberland River flows through the county, contributing to a landscape of rolling hills and forests. Commuting within Davidson County can be challenging due to traffic congestion, though public transit options like WeGo Public Transit buses and the WeGo Star commuter rail are available. The county also offers extensive outdoor recreation, with over 100 parks, 65 miles of greenways, and access to Percy Priest, Radnor, and Old Hickory Lakes.

Life in Davidson County attracts a mix of families and young professionals. The Metropolitan Nashville Public School District serves the county's communities. The economy is expanding, with growth in sectors such as healthcare, music production, and advanced manufacturing. While housing affordability is a concern for many residents, new construction is occurring, and nearby areas offer more accessible home prices.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
2.7x

Undervalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+4.1%

Well above national median

Home Prices
-2.8%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
0.3

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
17x

Above national median (13x)

Housing looks undervalued at 2.7x — home prices are low relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Vanderbilt University and Medical Center Healthcare
    50,000+
  2. 2
    Metro Nashville Public Schools Education
    10,000+
  3. 3
    Metropolitan Government of Nashville and Davidson County Government
  4. 4
    State of Tennessee Government
  5. 5
    Nissan North America Manufacturing
  6. 6
    HCA Healthcare Healthcare
  7. 7
    Kroger Retail
  8. 8
    Ascension Saint Thomas Healthcare
    5,000+
  9. 9
    Amazon Technology
  10. 10
    Community Health Systems Healthcare
    2,500+

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Davidson County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
709,786
+0.18% YoY
Median Household Income
$71,863
Median Home Value
$354,700
-2.78% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,394
Average Annual Pay
$83,096
+5.7% YoY
Employment
555,405
+1.1% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2026
Near national average
Migration Inflow
3.1%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
46.0%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$474,750
Days on Market
103
Slower market
Months of Supply
6.2
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.1%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
10.3%
Listings w/ Price Drops
18.1%
Building Permits (2024)
6,880
Single-Family Permits
2,722

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

D
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
13.7
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
19.5
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
128.3
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well above national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

C+
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
52.0
Moderate
Good Air Days
42%
457 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
10
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
52
2022
51
2023
53
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$2,710M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Oracle World Headquarters
Oracle
$2,000M Planned
New Davidson County Detention Facility
Davidson County Sheriff's Office
$410M Proposed
Nashville I Data Center
Radius Data Centers
$100M Under Construction
Metro Nashville & Vanderbilt University Solar Initiative
Metro Nashville, Vanderbilt University, Silicon Ranch Corp.
$100M Operating
Michelson Multifamily Fund II (Davidson County Share)
Metropolitan Government of Nashville & Davidson County (investment)
$50M Operating
East Bank Development Authority Infrastructure
East Bank Development Authority
$50M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +4.1% 74 percentile
Population Growth +0.2% 38 percentile
Income Growth +8.8% 58 percentile
Vacancy Rate 2.0% 9 percentile
Home Price Change -2.8% 10 percentile
Rent Growth -0.2% 10 percentile
Price/Rent 17x 21 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Davidson County, TN a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Davidson County scores just 1/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #980 of 996 counties. Job growth at +1.1% and median household income of $71,863 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Davidson County affordable?

Davidson County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $354,700 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.20 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,394/month on average.

Is Davidson County growing or shrinking?

Employers in Davidson County are hiring — job growth of +1.1% — but the population is close to flat (+0.2% YoY). Home values moved -2.8% over the past year. Labor demand is outpacing local population growth, which tends to tighten wages and housing.

Are people moving to Davidson County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.1% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Davidson County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Carter County, TN 6 Tipton County, TN 11 Sullivan County, TN 14 Montgomery County, TN 16 Cumberland County, TN 20 Robertson County, TN 22 Santa Barbara County, CA 1 District of Columbia, DC 2