38 / 100

Shelby County, TN

District 2

RANK #616 / 996 NAT  ·  #17 / 33 TN  ·  POP 926,440

1YR FORECAST: -0.9%

5YR OUTLOOK: +21%

Shelby County's housing market is projected to grow -0.9% over the next year, below the national average.

[01] Why Shelby County?

Shelby County, Tennessee, is perhaps best known as the home of Memphis, a city celebrated for its deep musical heritage and its position along the Mississippi River. The county, the largest in Tennessee by both land area and population, sits in the state's southwestern corner, bordering Arkansas and Mississippi. Commutes vary, with options including personal vehicles, public transportation via the Memphis Area Transit Authority (MATA) bus and trolley lines, and rideshare programs. Beyond the urban landscape, outdoor recreation is available at expansive green spaces like Shelby Farms Park, one of the nation's largest urban parks, and Meeman-Shelby Forest State Park, which offers hiking, fishing, and wildlife viewing.

Life in Shelby County offers a mix of urban and suburban experiences, with notable towns such as Germantown, Collierville, and Bartlett providing distinct community feels. Public education is served by Memphis-Shelby County Schools, the largest district in Tennessee, alongside several independent municipal school districts. The economy, historically rooted in agriculture, particularly cotton, has diversified. It now leverages its strategic location as a logistics hub, supported by its airport, rail, road, and river infrastructure. Recent economic developments show investment in advanced manufacturing and technology sectors, contributing to job growth and economic expansion.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
2.8x

Undervalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+0.2%

Well below national median

Home Prices
-1.7%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
-0.4

Below-average climate & terrain

Price/Rent
13x

Below national median (13x)

Housing looks undervalued at 2.8x — home prices are low relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    FedEx Corporation Logistics
    25,000+
  2. 2
    Shelby County Schools Education
    10,000+
  3. 3
    Methodist Le Bonheur Healthcare Healthcare
  4. 4
    United States Government Government
  5. 5
    Baptist Memorial Health Care Healthcare
  6. 6
    Tennessee State Government Government
    5,000+
  7. 7
    City of Memphis Government
  8. 8
    Naval Support Activity Mid-South Military
  9. 9
    AutoZone, Inc. Retail
  10. 10
    St. Jude Children's Research Hospital Healthcare

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Shelby County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
926,440
-0.29% YoY
Median Household Income
$59,621
Median Home Value
$206,100
-1.71% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,103
Average Annual Pay
$71,518
+1.9% YoY
Employment
482,470
-0.9% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2893
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
0.98%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
33.8%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$250,000
Days on Market
58
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
5.0
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
95.8%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
12.2%
Listings w/ Price Drops
22.8%
Building Permits (2024)
2,061
Single-Family Permits
642

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

F
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
28.3
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
36.3
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
132.0
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well above national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B-
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
48.7
Good
Good Air Days
54%
588 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
23
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
48
2022
46
2023
52
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$970M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
xAI Data Center (Project Colossus)
xAI (Elon Musk)
$500M Under Construction
MLGW Solar and Battery Storage Project
Memphis Light, Gas, and Water (MLGW)
$180M Planned
WR Graceland Solar Farm
RWE Renewables
$140M Under Construction
Amazon Fulfillment Center (Frayser)
Amazon
$100M Operating
Shelby County East Data Center
Nickson General Contractors
$50M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +0.2% 9 percentile
Population Growth -0.3% 16 percentile
Income Growth +8.4% 46 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.9% 11 percentile
Home Price Change -1.7% 16 percentile
Rent Growth +1.4% 25 percentile
Price/Rent 13x 59 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Shelby County, TN a good place to move to?

At 38/100, Shelby County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 996 counties we track. Median income of $59,621 combined with job growth of -0.9% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Shelby County affordable?

Housing in Shelby County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $206,100 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.29, with rents averaging $1,103/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Shelby County growing or shrinking?

Population and employment in Shelby County are both close to flat — population -0.3% YoY and jobs -0.9%. Home values shifted -1.7% over the past 12 months. A steady-state county, neither expanding quickly nor shrinking.

Are many people relocating to Shelby County?

Not particularly — 0.98% of Shelby County's population moved in from another state, which is below the national average. Most residents are long-term locals rather than recent transplants.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Hamilton County, TN 44 Hawkins County, TN 44 Rutherford County, TN 32 Bradley County, TN 48 Wilson County, TN 27 Putnam County, TN 27 Westchester County, NY 38 Richmond County, NY 38