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Shelby County, TN

RANK #847 / 1001 NAT  ·  #28 / 33 TN  ·  POP 919,173

1YR FORECAST: -2.5%

5YR OUTLOOK: +22%

Our model projects Shelby County's housing market at -2.5% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Shelby County?

Shelby County, Tennessee, is perhaps best known as the home of Memphis, a city celebrated for its deep musical heritage and its position along the Mississippi River. The county, the largest in Tennessee by both land area and population, sits in the state's southwestern corner, bordering Arkansas and Mississippi. Commutes vary, with options including personal vehicles, public transportation via the Memphis Area Transit Authority (MATA) bus and trolley lines, and rideshare programs. Beyond the urban landscape, outdoor recreation is available at expansive green spaces like Shelby Farms Park, one of the nation's largest urban parks, and Meeman-Shelby Forest State Park, which offers hiking, fishing, and wildlife viewing.

Life in Shelby County offers a mix of urban and suburban experiences, with notable towns such as Germantown, Collierville, and Bartlett providing distinct community feels. Public education is served by Memphis-Shelby County Schools, the largest district in Tennessee, alongside several independent municipal school districts. The economy, historically rooted in agriculture, particularly cotton, has diversified. It now leverages its strategic location as a logistics hub, supported by its airport, rail, road, and river infrastructure. Recent economic developments show investment in advanced manufacturing and technology sectors, contributing to job growth and economic expansion.

MARKET PROFILE

Idiosyncratic Markets

Shelby County's data profile doesn't fit any single market profile cleanly — its housing, labor, and demographic signals pull in different directions (home prices -1.5% YoY, population -0.3%, wages +3.5%). About 414 U.S. counties show this kind of mixed-signal pattern.

See all 414 Idiosyncratic Markets counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
6.6x

Below national median (11.3x)

Home Prices
-1.5%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
-0.4

Below-average climate & terrain

Price/Rent
15x

Below national median (15x)

Housing is fairly valued at 6.6x relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    FedEx Corporation Logistics
    25,000+
  2. 2
    Shelby County Schools Education
    10,000+
  3. 3
    Methodist Le Bonheur Healthcare Healthcare
  4. 4
    United States Government Government
  5. 5
    Baptist Memorial Health Care Healthcare
  6. 6
    Tennessee State Government Government
    5,000+
  7. 7
    City of Memphis Government
  8. 8
    Naval Support Activity Mid-South Military
  9. 9
    AutoZone, Inc. Retail
  10. 10
    St. Jude Children's Research Hospital Healthcare

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Shelby County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
919,173
-0.33% YoY
Median Household Income
$63,767
Median Home Value
$249,100
-1.52% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,232
Average Annual Pay
$74,025
+3.5% YoY
Employment
470,427
-2.5% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.256
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
1.03%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
34.3%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$290,000
Days on Market
33
Active market
Months of Supply
4.4
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.2%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
17.0%
Listings w/ Price Drops
32.4%
Building Permits (2025)
1,230
Single-Family Permits
1,058

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

F
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
28.3
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
36.3
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
132.0
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well above national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B-
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
48.7
Good
Good Air Days
54%
588 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
23
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
48
2022
46
2023
52
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$970M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
xAI Data Center (Project Colossus)
xAI (Elon Musk)
$500M Under Construction
MLGW Solar and Battery Storage Project
Memphis Light, Gas, and Water (MLGW)
$180M Planned
WR Graceland Solar Farm
RWE Renewables
$140M Under Construction
Amazon Fulfillment Center (Frayser)
Amazon
$100M Operating
Shelby County East Data Center
Nickson General Contractors
$50M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth -0.3% 9 percentile
Income Growth +2.3% 37 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.9% 7 percentile
Home Price Change -1.5% 15 percentile
Rent Growth +0.2% 12 percentile
Price/Rent 15x 55 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Shelby County, TN a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Shelby County scores just 15/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #847 of 1001 counties. Job growth at -2.5% and median household income of $63,767 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Shelby County affordable?

Housing in Shelby County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $249,100 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.26, with rents averaging $1,232/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Shelby County growing or shrinking?

Shelby County's job market is contracting (-2.5% YoY) while population is roughly stable (-0.3% change). Home values are -1.5% over the past 12 months. Hiring headwinds without an offsetting exodus — residents are staying, but local employers are shedding payroll.

Are many people relocating to Shelby County?

Not particularly — 1.03% of Shelby County's population moved in from another state, which is below the national average. Most residents are long-term locals rather than recent transplants.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Putnam County, TN 18 Robertson County, TN 12 Hawkins County, TN 11 McMinn County, TN 21 Knox County, TN 9 Bradley County, TN 24 Cobb County, GA 15 San Francisco County, CA 16