RANK #962 / 1001 NAT · #65 / 72 TX · POP 979,561
1YR FORECAST: -3.3%
5YR OUTLOOK: +13%
The city of Denton, home to the historic Courthouse-on-the-Square and two major universities, anchors Denton County, located less than forty miles north of Dallas and Fort Worth. The county offers a blend of urban amenities and natural scenery, with three major lakes—Ray Roberts Lake, Lake Lewisville, and Lake Grapevine—providing opportunities for fishing, swimming, and paddling. Extensive trail systems, including the Denton Greenbelt Corridor, cater to hikers and bikers. Commute options include the A-train commuter rail, connecting to Dallas, and local bus services.
Denton County attracts a diverse population, including families and young professionals, drawn by its schools and quality of life. The economy is experiencing growth, with significant investment in advanced manufacturing and technology sectors. The presence of two state universities, the University of North Texas and Texas Woman's University, contributes to the area's cultural and intellectual life, and also influences the local economy.
Denton County is one of 76 U.S. counties in this market profile — weaker than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of -4.8% runs below the profile's typical -3.7%.
See all 76 Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction counties →Overvalued relative to economy
Prices declining
Moderate climate & terrain
Prices detached from rents
Housing looks overvalued at 19.7x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.
Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.
Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).
Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →
Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →
Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →
| PROJECT | AMOUNT | STATUS |
|---|---|---|
|
Craver Ranch Master-Planned Community
Old Prosper Partners LLC
|
$5,100M | Planned |
|
Core Scientific Data Center Conversion and Expansion
Core Scientific
|
$4,000M | Planned |
|
MP Materials Northlake Campus
MP Materials
|
$1,250M | Planned |
|
Wistron InfoComm (USA) Corporation Facilities
Wistron InfoComm (USA) Corporation
|
$687M | Planned |
|
Denton County Solar PV Park
Belltown Power
|
$360M | Dormant |
|
Noble Solar & Storage Project
National Grid Renewables (Geronimo Power)
|
$275M | Operating |
Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.
Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.
The data is not encouraging — Denton County scores just 3/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #962 of 1001 counties. Job growth at +2.0% and median household income of $111,498 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.
Housing in Denton County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $437,200 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.26, with rents averaging $1,728/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.
Denton County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +3.6% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +2.0% clip. Home values shifted -4.8% in the past year.
In significant numbers — 5.67% of Denton County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.