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Denton County, TX

Lewisville-Flower Mound

RANK #971 / 996 NAT  ·  #64 / 69 TX  ·  POP 914,870

1YR FORECAST: -2.7%

5YR OUTLOOK: +6%

#28 Fastest Growing
Our model projects Denton County's housing market at -2.7% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Denton County?

The city of Denton, home to the historic Courthouse-on-the-Square and two major universities, anchors Denton County, located less than forty miles north of Dallas and Fort Worth. The county offers a blend of urban amenities and natural scenery, with three major lakes—Ray Roberts Lake, Lake Lewisville, and Lake Grapevine—providing opportunities for fishing, swimming, and paddling. Extensive trail systems, including the Denton Greenbelt Corridor, cater to hikers and bikers. Commute options include the A-train commuter rail, connecting to Dallas, and local bus services.

Denton County attracts a diverse population, including families and young professionals, drawn by its schools and quality of life. The economy is experiencing growth, with significant investment in advanced manufacturing and technology sectors. The presence of two state universities, the University of North Texas and Texas Woman's University, contributes to the area's cultural and intellectual life, and also influences the local economy.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
6.9x

Above national median (4.7x)

GDP Growth
+1.9%

Below national median

Home Prices
-5.0%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
1.4

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
19x

Above national median (13x)

Housing is fairly valued at 6.9x relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    University of North Texas Education
    2,500+
  2. 2
    Denton Independent School District Education
  3. 3
    Peterbilt Motors Company Manufacturing
  4. 4
    Texas Woman's University Education
    1,000+
  5. 5
    Denton State Supported Living Center Healthcare
  6. 6
    Denton County Government
  7. 7
    City of Denton Government
  8. 8
    FEMA-TX National Processing Service Center Government
  9. 9
    Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital Denton Healthcare
  10. 10
    Medical City Denton Healthcare
    500+

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Denton County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
914,870
+3.37% YoY
Median Household Income
$104,180
Median Home Value
$377,000
-5.0% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,496
Average Annual Pay
$65,626
+3.7% YoY
Employment
313,782
+2.0% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2763
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
5.87%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
47.9%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$429,000
Days on Market
88
Slower market
Months of Supply
4.8
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.3%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
10.3%
Listings w/ Price Drops
32.0%
Building Permits (2024)
10,507
Single-Family Permits
7,376

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
2.2
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
9.1
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
42.9
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B-
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
47.0
Good
Good Air Days
58%
631 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
73
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
45
2022
47
2023
49
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$11,672M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Craver Ranch Master-Planned Community
Old Prosper Partners LLC
$5,100M Planned
Core Scientific Data Center Conversion and Expansion
Core Scientific
$4,000M Planned
MP Materials Northlake Campus
MP Materials
$1,250M Planned
Wistron InfoComm (USA) Corporation Facilities
Wistron InfoComm (USA) Corporation
$687M Planned
Denton County Solar PV Park
Belltown Power
$360M Dormant
Noble Solar & Storage Project
National Grid Renewables (Geronimo Power)
$275M Operating

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +1.9% 32 percentile
Population Growth +3.4% 97 percentile
Income Growth +8.2% 41 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.2% 44 percentile
Home Price Change -5.0% 2 percentile
Rent Growth -0.6% 8 percentile
Price/Rent 19x 11 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Denton County, TX a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Denton County scores just 2/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #971 of 996 counties. Job growth at +2.0% and median household income of $104,180 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Denton County affordable?

Housing in Denton County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $377,000 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.28, with rents averaging $1,496/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Denton County growing or shrinking?

Denton County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +3.4% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +2.0% clip. Home values shifted -5.0% in the past year.

Are people moving to Denton County?

In significant numbers — 5.87% of Denton County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

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