69 counties · Boom Town Index

Texas

Avg BTI Score
38 / 100
Population
26.6M
+1.7% avg growth
National Rank
#39 of 51

State Overview

Texas's economy experienced a deceleration in job growth during 2025, with major metropolitan areas like Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio seeing near-flat or declining employment, while Austin and Fort Worth recorded modest gains. This slowdown is partly attributed to reduced immigration and a tempering in the tech sector. Despite this, the state's economic output continued to expand, outpacing the national average, driven by factors such as energy prices and increased defense spending.

The housing market in Texas is undergoing a normalization, characterized by modest home price movements and increasing inventory. Legislative changes in 2025 aimed to improve affordability by reducing barriers to construction and allowing more diverse housing types, including apartments on commercially zoned land. Migration into Texas remains strong, with the state reclaiming the top spot for inbound moves in 2025, particularly in North Texas suburbs like Celina, Forney, McKinney, Princeton, and Prosper.

Median Household Income
$66,713
State median across 69 counties
Median Home Value
$186,200
Income-to-home ratio: 0.34
Building Permits
218,593
Total residential permits
Natural Amenity
7.3 / 10
#15 of 49 · USDA scale

Texas Counties

69 counties
Rank County BTI Score Safety Proj. Growth GDP Pop Growth Income Ratio Home Price Climate P/R
01 Orange County 100 C +1.4% +13.8% -0.3% +4.6% 2.8x +2.0% 0.4 10x
02 Nacogdoches County 98 C+ +4.5% +3.1% -0.1% +8.1% 3.4x +1.7% 2.1 12x
03 Hardin County 96 B- +1.9% +4.9% +0.8% +7.4% 6.9x +0.2% 1.0 10x
04 Lamar County 95 B- +1.6% +1.3% +0.4% +13.0% 2.7x +3.2% 0.4 15x
05 Bowie County 92 D +1.0% +3.5% -0.2% +3.1% 3.5x -2.1% 0.8 11x
06 Taylor County 90 C+ +7.4% +4.0% +0.9% +6.9% 3.2x +4.2% 2.0 8x
07 Anderson County 89 C +3.2% -1.2% -0.1% +15.5% 4.2x -4.6% 1.1 13x
08 Ector County 88 C +5.8% +3.0% +0.7% +8.6% 2.1x +5.0% 2.5 9x
09 Tom Green County 86 B- +3.6% +3.0% +0.2% +8.3% 3.1x +4.1% 2.6 11x
10 Rusk County 84 C+ +3.6% -7.3% +0.4% +2.2% 3.6x +0.9% 1.9 13x
11 Harrison County 82 D +2.0% -0.4% +0.6% +9.4% 2.5x -1.7% 0.5 15x
12 Potter County 82 D +2.4% +2.0% -1.0% +6.4% 1.6x +1.8% 2.6 10x
13 Jefferson County 72 D -0.6% +12.4% -0.7% +6.9% 1.8x +2.4% 1.0 10x
14 Navarro County 71 D +0.0% +1.9% +1.8% +11.5% 4.0x -0.2% 0.6 10x
15 Van Zandt County 71 C +1.7% +3.4% +2.2% +2.0% 7.3x +0.2% 0.4 15x
16 Wichita County 68 C +0.1% +0.8% +0.1% +10.5% 2.8x -1.0% 0.8 9x
17 Liberty County 67 C +0.7% +3.5% +4.0% +10.6% 5.3x +1.6% 0.1 8x
18 Angelina County 64 C +0.3% +2.1% +0.0% +8.9% 3.3x +0.4% 1.9 8x
19 Gregg County 63 D +0.4% +0.5% +0.4% +12.8% 2.5x +1.4% 0.2 13x
20 Midland County 62 C+ +1.8% +5.9% +1.4% +2.2% 1.3x +2.7% 1.4 14x
21 Victoria County 56 C -0.5% +1.8% -0.1% +9.4% 3.3x -2.2% -0.8 13x
22 Nueces County 51 D +1.6% +7.8% -0.1% +7.7% 2.9x -1.6% 3.3 10x
23 Randall County 51 B- +0.8% +4.0% +1.7% +10.6% 6.2x +1.7% 2.4 12x
24 Cameron County 50 B+ +1.6% +5.7% +0.3% +10.2% 3.4x +1.0% 2.5 6x
25 Johnson County 49 B -0.7% +5.5% +3.2% +8.9% 5.8x -3.0% 0.1 12x
26 Lubbock County 43 C -0.1% +1.7% +0.9% +9.5% 3.7x +0.7% 1.1 11x
27 Webb County 41 B- +0.5% +0.0% +0.1% +9.8% 3.3x +2.5% 1.1 10x
28 McLennan County 39 C+ -0.5% +3.8% +1.2% +11.3% 3.5x -1.0% 0.8 12x
29 Walker County 39 B -0.7% +3.9% +0.9% +7.0% 5.9x +0.8% 1.1 12x
30 Coryell County 38 B- -0.1% +1.9% +1.5% +8.3% 7.2x +0.4% 1.0 11x
31 El Paso County 36 B +1.5% +8.4% +0.4% +8.8% 3.1x +1.1% 4.5 9x
32 Smith County 35 C+ -0.3% +3.6% +1.4% +10.4% 3.6x -1.3% 0.7 13x
33 Medina County 33 B- +0.1% -1.0% +1.9% +8.8% 7.8x -2.5% 0.7 8x
34 Hood County 30 B -0.4% +2.5% +3.2% +5.5% 5.6x +0.4% 1.4 12x
35 Hidalgo County 30 B +0.7% +2.6% +0.9% +10.5% 4.1x -0.3% 0.5 8x
36 Wilson County 27 D +0.1% +6.7% +2.0% +6.7% 9.5x +0.3% 0.4 21x
37 Guadalupe County 26 B -0.3% +5.2% +2.6% +10.1% 3.6x -2.6% 0.6 13x
38 Brazos County 25 B +0.0% +3.2% +1.5% +9.3% 4.9x +0.5% 0.6 13x
39 Parker County 23 B+ -0.1% +5.2% +4.4% +8.1% 8.0x -0.8% 0.1 16x
40 Montgomery County 20 B -0.1% +4.5% +3.6% +8.3% 4.7x -0.6% 1.6 15x
41 Brazoria County 20 B- +0.1% +5.3% +1.6% +4.6% 5.3x -0.9% 1.3 13x
42 Maverick County 19 B +1.8% +2.6% +0.1% +9.0% 3.5x +0.1% 0.5 14x
43 Polk County 18 D +0.2% +1.8% +2.4% +8.5% 5.3x -2.5% 1.8 14x
44 Ellis County 18 B- -0.0% +7.2% +4.0% +9.3% 6.6x -1.6% 0.2 12x
45 Starr County 16 B- +0.7% -2.9% +0.2% +7.9% 4.7x -3.0% 2.0 11x
46 Galveston County 16 D -0.7% +7.5% +1.1% +5.8% 4.5x -3.4% 1.9 14x
47 Dallas County 14 D -0.9% +1.3% -0.0% +8.8% 2.1x -4.1% 0.6 13x
48 Kaufman County 13 C+ -1.5% +6.6% +6.9% +11.8% 7.3x -4.0% 0.6 11x
49 Hunt County 12 C+ -0.6% +5.4% +2.9% +9.6% 3.5x -3.5% 1.1 11x
50 Henderson County 12 C -0.4% +4.4% +1.1% +15.0% 6.2x -1.9% 2.7 10x
51 San Patricio County 11 C -1.9% -4.9% +0.5% +7.2% 3.8x -0.2% 2.0 10x
52 Tarrant County 10 C -0.3% +3.5% +1.1% +7.2% 4.1x -2.8% 1.0 14x
53 Bell County 9 D -1.2% +4.5% +2.2% +8.5% 3.6x -1.6% 1.3 12x
54 Cherokee County 9 B- -0.1% +4.8% +0.5% +5.1% 4.4x -6.5% 1.2 13x
55 Harris County 7 D -1.6% +3.8% +0.6% +7.6% 2.4x -2.5% -0.0 12x
56 Comal County 6 B+ -2.6% +6.7% +5.7% +9.1% 6.6x -2.0% 3.2 20x
57 Rockwall County 6 B+ -1.7% +8.8% +5.1% +8.7% 6.5x -3.0% 1.4 16x
58 Waller County 4 B- -1.7% -2.1% +3.5% +9.6% 3.5x -1.8% 1.3 10x
59 Hays County 4 B -1.9% +7.3% +4.6% +12.6% 7.0x -5.3% 2.2 18x
60 Grayson County 3 B- -2.3% +5.7% +2.1% +7.3% 4.3x -4.7% 0.8 12x
61 Wise County 3 B- -2.0% -4.5% +3.2% +13.1% 5.2x -2.5% 0.9 13x
62 Kerr County 2 B- -3.6% +3.5% +0.8% +7.2% 5.5x -3.4% 4.5 12x
63 Bastrop County 2 C -3.2% +3.8% +3.7% +2.3% 6.9x -3.8% 0.9 11x
64 Denton County 2 B+ -2.7% +1.9% +3.4% +8.2% 6.9x -5.0% 1.4 19x
65 Fort Bend County 2 B- -1.8% +6.3% +3.2% +7.2% 7.0x -2.3% -0.5 14x
66 Bexar County 1 D -3.0% +3.5% +1.2% +8.2% 3.5x -2.9% 2.6 14x
67 Travis County 1 B- -6.2% +3.0% +1.7% +9.0% 3.5x -6.2% 3.2 24x
68 Collin County 0 B+ -3.6% +5.5% +3.8% +8.6% 4.7x -5.8% 1.0 20x
69 Williamson County 0 A -5.5% +6.0% +4.3% +8.6% 6.5x -5.6% 0.9 20x

Capital Investment in Texas

Tracked Projects · Public Records
$476.6B
Total tracked investment
132,269
Jobs announced
344
Projects across 64 counties

Where the money is going

Data Centers $168.2B 35%
Manufacturing $131.8B 28%
Energy $126.7B 27%
Commercial/Residential $26.4B 6%
Infrastructure $18.8B 4%

Top counties by investment

  1. 01 Jefferson County $57.2B
    5 projects · 1,400 jobs
  2. 02 Ellis County $45.7B
    6 projects · 1,100 jobs
  3. 03 Grayson County $42.1B
    5 projects · 4,500 jobs
  4. 04 Cameron County $39.4B
    6 projects
  5. 05 Williamson County $27.4B
    6 projects · 2,100 jobs
  6. 06 Orange County $19.0B
    6 projects · 7,500 jobs

Largest projects in Texas

Project County Amount Status
Industrial Infrastructure Expansion Projects (various)
Various (including Chevron) · Manufacturing · 1,000 jobs
 Jefferson County $56.0B Under Construction
Google Data Center Expansion (Midlothian & Red Oak)
Google · Data Centers
 Ellis County $40.0B Under Construction
Rio Grande LNG Production and Export Terminal (Phase 1)
NextDecade · Energy
 Cameron County $32.0B Under Construction
Texas Instruments Semiconductor Manufacturing Plant
Texas Instruments · Manufacturing · 3,000 jobs
 Grayson County $30.0B Under Construction
Samsung Semiconductor Plant
Samsung Austin Semiconductor, LLC · Manufacturing · 2,000 jobs
 Williamson County $17.0B Under Construction
Natural Gas Generation Plant
NextEra Energy Resources · Energy · 3,000 jobs
 Anderson County $16.0B Under Construction
Cheniere LNG Terminal (Stage 1)
Cheniere Energy, Inc. · Energy · 600 jobs
 San Patricio County $13.0B Under Construction
Texas Critical Data Centers (TCDC) Campus
New Era Energy & Digital, Stream Data Centers, Sharon AI Inc. · Data Centers
 Midland County $12.0B Under Construction
→ Methodology · How We Tracked $4T Across 858 Counties

Source: public records, corporate announcements, state EDC filings. Tracking projects with $25M+ in announced investment or 500+ jobs. Some figures are estimates where exact totals weren't disclosed.

Texas shaded relief terrain map
SRTM 30m shaded relief
State Spotlight · 2026-04-29

Texas job growth slows as housing inventory rises

Economic drivers

Texas's economic expansion in 2025 was supported by energy prices and defense spending. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas forecasts a 1.3% job increase for 2026. Construction, education and health services, and manufacturing showed gains in late 2025 and early 2026.

Housing market right now

The Texas housing market is normalizing with modest home price changes, often flat to low single-digit growth, anticipated for 2025-2026. Active inventory trended higher in 2025, with approximately 128,100 active listings at the start of 2026. Median home prices are projected to increase slightly to around $334,000 by December 2026.

Migration patterns

Texas led the U.S. in new arrivals in 2025, according to U-Haul's Growth Index, marking the seventh time in ten years. Major metros like Austin and San Antonio continue to attract residents, with growth spilling into surrounding counties such as Bexar, Comal, Hays, and Guadalupe.

Headwinds

Job growth in Texas decelerated in 2025, with major metros like Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio experiencing sluggish or declining employment. Restrictive immigration policies and a slowdown in the tech sector contributed to this moderation. Rising homeowners insurance costs also present a challenge, with median premiums increasing 60% from 2019 to 2024.

Key facts

  • Texas employment growth was near zero in 2025, with job gains in Austin (0.9%) and Fort Worth (0.3%), and declines in San Antonio (-0.6%), Dallas (-0.2%), and Houston (-0.1%). (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, February 2026)
  • The Texas economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025. (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, April 2026)
  • Texas committed a record $148 billion to transportation infrastructure in 2024, with this funding forming the backbone of the state's infrastructure pipeline through 2026. (Kitching & Co, October 2025)
  • In 2025, Texas lawmakers passed seven bills aimed at improving housing affordability by reducing regulatory barriers and increasing housing supply. (Texas 2036, August 2025)
  • Apple announced a major investment in its Houston campus in February 2026, including Mac mini production and expansion of AI server manufacturing. (WFAA, April 2026)
Updated 2026-04-29 · grounded research
26 sources
  1. independencetitle.com
  2. dallasfed.org
  3. dallasfed.org
  4. texasbankers.com
  5. tpr.org
  6. tradeandindustrydev.com
  7. texasally.com
  8. noradarealestate.com
  9. pew.org
  10. texas2036.org
  11. wfaa.com
  12. exploreatx.us
  13. uhaul.com
  14. kitchingco.com
  15. fox7austin.com
  16. republictitle.com
  17. tamu.edu
  18. managecasa.com
  19. bluecollarcommercialgroup.com
  20. utsa.edu
  21. youtube.com
  22. tamu.edu
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  24. texas.gov
  25. kitchingco.com
  26. houstonchronicle.com