72 counties · Boom Town Index

Texas

Avg BTI Score
25 / 100
Population
27.7M
+2.0% avg growth
National Rank
#49 of 51

State Overview

Texas's economy experienced a deceleration in job growth during 2025, with major metropolitan areas like Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio seeing near-flat or declining employment, while Austin and Fort Worth recorded modest gains. This slowdown is partly attributed to reduced immigration and a tempering in the tech sector. Despite this, the state's economic output continued to expand, outpacing the national average, driven by factors such as energy prices and increased defense spending.

The housing market in Texas is undergoing a normalization, characterized by modest home price movements and increasing inventory. Legislative changes in 2025 aimed to improve affordability by reducing barriers to construction and allowing more diverse housing types, including apartments on commercially zoned land. Migration into Texas remains strong, with the state reclaiming the top spot for inbound moves in 2025, particularly in North Texas suburbs like Celina, Forney, McKinney, Princeton, and Prosper.

Median Household Income
$71,536
State median across 72 counties
Median Home Value
$239,600
Income-to-home ratio: 0.31
Building Permits
205,082
Total residential permits
Natural Amenity
7.3 / 10
#15 of 49 · USDA scale

Texas Counties

72 counties
Rank County BTI Score Safety Proj. Growth GDP Pop Growth Income Ratio Home Price Climate P/R
01 Taylor County 98 C+ +6.0% — +1.1% +1.1% 7.2x +9.2% 2.0 8x
02 Potter County 97 D +1.6% — -0.6% +5.5% 3.5x +4.2% 2.6 11x
03 Randall County 94 B- +1.4% — +1.6% +3.7% 16.8x +3.8% 2.4 14x
04 Wichita County 93 C +1.4% — +0.1% +2.2% 7.0x +2.1% 0.8 10x
05 El Paso County 84 B +0.8% — +0.5% +1.6% 9.0x +2.1% 4.5 10x
06 Victoria County 78 C +0.6% — +0.1% +1.1% 9.1x +0.9% -0.8 15x
07 Parker County 76 B+ -0.3% — +4.5% +2.3% 24.5x -0.2% 0.1 20x
08 Nacogdoches County 64 C+ +0.8% — +0.4% +3.9% 9.7x +4.0% 2.1 13x
09 Jefferson County 59 D +0.1% — -0.0% +0.1% 4.7x +4.0% 1.0 11x
10 Navarro County 54 D -0.8% — +1.8% +6.4% 10.9x +1.2% 0.6 10x
11 Ellis County 54 B- -1.1% — +4.5% +3.9% 19.4x -0.9% 0.2 16x
12 Anderson County 49 C -0.8% — +1.1% +5.5% 8.5x +3.3% 1.1 15x
13 McLennan County 41 C+ -0.6% — +0.9% +4.3% 8.3x +0.2% 0.8 14x
14 Angelina County 39 C -1.2% — +0.6% +3.6% 7.6x -0.8% 1.9 10x
15 Hardin County 38 B- -0.0% — +0.9% +4.5% 17.8x +1.9% 1.0 10x
16 Johnson County 33 B -1.1% — +3.6% +3.7% 15.4x -1.3% 0.1 15x
17 Medina County 33 B- -1.0% — +2.1% +6.3% 21.8x -2.5% 0.7 17x
18 Cherokee County 32 B- +0.1% — +1.4% +2.4% 11.2x -1.8% 1.2 15x
19 Coryell County 31 B- -0.9% — +1.2% +3.5% 19.7x +0.5% 1.0 13x
20 Wilson County 30 D +0.3% — +2.5% +2.3% 33.1x -0.0% 0.4 25x
21 Galveston County 28 D -1.6% — +1.2% +0.9% 14.0x -1.4% 1.9 16x
22 Gregg County 28 D -0.1% — +0.5% +2.7% 5.5x +0.3% 0.2 15x
23 Van Zandt County 27 C -0.7% — +2.2% +1.8% 22.9x -0.1% 0.4 17x
24 Lubbock County 26 C -0.1% — +1.4% +1.2% 7.9x +2.4% 1.1 13x
25 Hood County 26 B -0.6% — +2.6% +1.6% 19.9x +0.1% 1.4 15x
26 Kaufman County 26 C+ -2.2% — +7.4% +1.0% 21.0x -4.0% 0.6 14x
27 Kerr County 25 B- -1.7% — +0.6% +2.2% 14.9x -2.1% 4.5 15x
28 Tarrant County 24 C -1.2% — +1.5% +2.8% 9.2x -1.0% 1.0 17x
29 Walker County 24 B -1.6% — +2.5% +4.9% 12.6x +0.2% 1.1 14x
30 Chambers County 22 B- -0.9% — +4.7% +1.6% 9.3x +0.7% 1.6 13x
31 Smith County 22 C+ -1.2% — +1.6% +3.1% 8.4x -0.4% 0.7 15x
32 Hunt County 22 C+ -2.2% — +3.9% +2.6% 12.3x -2.7% 1.1 13x
33 Dallas County 19 D -1.9% — +0.7% +3.2% 4.7x -1.9% 0.6 15x
34 Travis County 19 B- -2.3% — +1.7% +2.5% 7.4x -4.0% 3.2 27x
35 Bowie County 19 D -0.8% — -0.2% +0.9% 6.8x +1.3% 0.8 12x
36 Nueces County 19 D -1.1% — +0.0% +1.3% 7.1x +0.3% 3.3 12x
37 San Patricio County 18 C -0.3% — +0.9% +3.2% 9.6x +1.1% 2.0 11x
38 Rockwall County 17 B+ -1.8% — +5.7% +2.5% 19.7x -2.4% 1.4 18x
39 Guadalupe County 14 B -1.7% — +3.0% -1.5% 18.4x -1.8% 0.6 15x
40 Montgomery County 13 B -1.6% — +4.5% +0.5% 13.8x -1.4% 1.6 16x
41 Fort Bend County 13 B- -1.6% — +4.0% +0.6% 20.2x -2.0% -0.5 16x
42 Hidalgo County 13 B -1.1% — +1.3% +3.9% 9.6x -0.2% 0.5 10x
43 Brazoria County 11 B- -1.7% — +2.5% +3.0% 13.4x -1.2% 1.3 14x
44 Brazos County 9 B -1.1% — +1.8% +0.3% 10.0x +0.0% 0.6 17x
45 Harris County 9 D -1.7% — +1.7% +2.6% 5.9x -2.1% -0.0 14x
46 Harrison County 8 D -1.3% — +0.8% +0.1% 9.0x +0.1% 0.5 12x
47 Orange County 8 C +0.2% — +0.4% -1.7% 8.6x +2.9% 0.4 12x
48 Henderson County 8 C -2.1% — +1.4% +1.9% 17.1x -2.3% 2.7 13x
49 Cameron County 7 B+ -1.0% — +0.7% +2.5% 8.0x +1.3% 2.5 8x
50 Williamson County 6 A -2.2% — +4.5% +2.8% 15.3x -5.3% 0.9 23x
51 Webb County 5 B- -0.1% — +0.6% +0.9% 9.9x +2.2% 1.1 13x
52 Bastrop County 5 C -2.8% — +4.1% +4.2% 26.2x -4.7% 0.9 15x
53 Comal County 4 B+ -2.7% — +5.3% +2.9% 17.0x -1.2% 3.2 23x
54 Liberty County 4 C -1.8% — +5.5% +6.1% 16.0x -2.6% 0.1 10x
55 Hays County 4 B -3.8% — +4.8% +3.8% 19.2x -3.9% 2.2 22x
56 Burnet County 4 B- -3.2% — +3.1% +2.0% 18.2x -2.1% 4.4 19x
57 Wise County 3 B- -2.2% — +3.7% +3.9% 16.9x -0.5% 0.9 16x
58 Atascosa County 3 B- -0.9% — +1.9% +1.9% 9.5x +1.1% 0.9 14x
59 Polk County 3 D -2.5% — +2.0% +5.4% 13.9x -3.9% 1.8 10x
60 Midland County 3 C+ +0.1% — +1.9% -1.2% 4.7x +1.7% 1.4 16x
61 Collin County 2 B+ -3.1% — +4.2% +3.4% 10.7x -5.1% 1.0 23x
62 Rusk County 2 C+ -0.5% — +0.4% +1.7% 12.2x +4.8% 1.9 14x
63 Lamar County 2 B- -0.8% — +0.5% +1.2% 8.5x +1.9% 0.4 18x
64 Denton County 2 B+ -2.3% — +3.6% +3.1% 19.7x -3.1% 1.4 21x
65 Bell County 1 D -3.0% — +1.9% +4.3% 11.0x -1.9% 1.3 15x
66 Starr County 1 B- -1.1% — +0.4% -1.4% 10.0x +1.2% 2.0 11x
67 Grayson County 1 B- -3.7% — +2.4% +2.5% 11.1x -4.8% 0.8 16x
68 Tom Green County 1 B- -2.4% — +0.1% +3.2% 8.2x -3.4% 2.6 13x
69 Bexar County 1 D -3.4% — +1.5% +2.5% 8.5x -2.2% 2.6 16x
70 Waller County 0 B- -3.2% — +3.5% +5.6% 11.0x -1.9% 1.3 12x
71 Ector County 0 C -1.2% — +0.9% +0.7% 5.4x +4.4% 2.5 11x
72 Maverick County 0 B -3.5% — +0.5% -3.3% 10.9x -4.2% 0.5 15x

Capital Investment in Texas

Tracked Projects · Public Records
$476.6B
Total tracked investment
132,269
Jobs announced
344
Projects across 64 counties

Where the money is going

Data Centers $168.2B 35%
Manufacturing $131.8B 28%
Energy $126.7B 27%
Commercial/Residential $26.4B 6%
Infrastructure $18.8B 4%

Top counties by investment

  1. 01 Jefferson County $57.2B
    5 projects · 1,400 jobs
  2. 02 Ellis County $45.7B
    6 projects · 1,100 jobs
  3. 03 Grayson County $42.1B
    5 projects · 4,500 jobs
  4. 04 Cameron County $39.4B
    6 projects
  5. 05 Williamson County $27.4B
    6 projects · 2,100 jobs
  6. 06 Orange County $19.0B
    6 projects · 7,500 jobs

Largest projects in Texas

Project County Amount Status
Industrial Infrastructure Expansion Projects (various)
Various (including Chevron) · Manufacturing · 1,000 jobs
 Jefferson County $56.0B Under Construction
Google Data Center Expansion (Midlothian & Red Oak)
Google · Data Centers
 Ellis County $40.0B Under Construction
Rio Grande LNG Production and Export Terminal (Phase 1)
NextDecade · Energy
 Cameron County $32.0B Under Construction
Texas Instruments Semiconductor Manufacturing Plant
Texas Instruments · Manufacturing · 3,000 jobs
 Grayson County $30.0B Under Construction
Samsung Semiconductor Plant
Samsung Austin Semiconductor, LLC · Manufacturing · 2,000 jobs
 Williamson County $17.0B Under Construction
Natural Gas Generation Plant
NextEra Energy Resources · Energy · 3,000 jobs
 Anderson County $16.0B Under Construction
Cheniere LNG Terminal (Stage 1)
Cheniere Energy, Inc. · Energy · 600 jobs
 San Patricio County $13.0B Under Construction
Texas Critical Data Centers (TCDC) Campus
New Era Energy & Digital, Stream Data Centers, Sharon AI Inc. · Data Centers
 Midland County $12.0B Under Construction
→ Methodology · How We Tracked $4T Across 858 Counties

Source: public records, corporate announcements, state EDC filings. Tracking projects with $25M+ in announced investment or 500+ jobs. Some figures are estimates where exact totals weren't disclosed.

Texas shaded relief terrain map
SRTM 30m shaded relief
State Spotlight · 2026-04-29

Texas job growth slows as housing inventory rises

Economic drivers

Texas's economic expansion in 2025 was supported by energy prices and defense spending. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas forecasts a 1.3% job increase for 2026. Construction, education and health services, and manufacturing showed gains in late 2025 and early 2026.

Housing market right now

The Texas housing market is normalizing with modest home price changes, often flat to low single-digit growth, anticipated for 2025-2026. Active inventory trended higher in 2025, with approximately 128,100 active listings at the start of 2026. Median home prices are projected to increase slightly to around $334,000 by December 2026.

Migration patterns

Texas led the U.S. in new arrivals in 2025, according to U-Haul's Growth Index, marking the seventh time in ten years. Major metros like Austin and San Antonio continue to attract residents, with growth spilling into surrounding counties such as Bexar, Comal, Hays, and Guadalupe.

Headwinds

Job growth in Texas decelerated in 2025, with major metros like Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio experiencing sluggish or declining employment. Restrictive immigration policies and a slowdown in the tech sector contributed to this moderation. Rising homeowners insurance costs also present a challenge, with median premiums increasing 60% from 2019 to 2024.

Key facts

  • Texas employment growth was near zero in 2025, with job gains in Austin (0.9%) and Fort Worth (0.3%), and declines in San Antonio (-0.6%), Dallas (-0.2%), and Houston (-0.1%). (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, February 2026)
  • The Texas economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025. (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, April 2026)
  • Texas committed a record $148 billion to transportation infrastructure in 2024, with this funding forming the backbone of the state's infrastructure pipeline through 2026. (Kitching & Co, October 2025)
  • In 2025, Texas lawmakers passed seven bills aimed at improving housing affordability by reducing regulatory barriers and increasing housing supply. (Texas 2036, August 2025)
  • Apple announced a major investment in its Houston campus in February 2026, including Mac mini production and expansion of AI server manufacturing. (WFAA, April 2026)
Updated 2026-04-29 · grounded research
26 sources
  1. independencetitle.com
  2. dallasfed.org
  3. dallasfed.org
  4. texasbankers.com
  5. tpr.org
  6. tradeandindustrydev.com
  7. texasally.com
  8. noradarealestate.com
  9. pew.org
  10. texas2036.org
  11. wfaa.com
  12. exploreatx.us
  13. uhaul.com
  14. kitchingco.com
  15. fox7austin.com
  16. republictitle.com
  17. tamu.edu
  18. managecasa.com
  19. bluecollarcommercialgroup.com
  20. utsa.edu
  21. youtube.com
  22. tamu.edu
  23. dallasfed.org
  24. texas.gov
  25. kitchingco.com
  26. houstonchronicle.com

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