72 counties · Boom Town Index

Texas

Avg BTI Score
37 / 100
Population
27.7M
+2.0% avg growth
National Rank
#41 of 51

State Overview

Texas's economy experienced a deceleration in job growth during 2025, with major metropolitan areas like Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio seeing near-flat or declining employment, while Austin and Fort Worth recorded modest gains. This slowdown is partly attributed to reduced immigration and a tempering in the tech sector. Despite this, the state's economic output continued to expand, outpacing the national average, driven by factors such as energy prices and increased defense spending.

The housing market in Texas is undergoing a normalization, characterized by modest home price movements and increasing inventory. Legislative changes in 2025 aimed to improve affordability by reducing barriers to construction and allowing more diverse housing types, including apartments on commercially zoned land. Migration into Texas remains strong, with the state reclaiming the top spot for inbound moves in 2025, particularly in North Texas suburbs like Celina, Forney, McKinney, Princeton, and Prosper.

Median Household Income
$71,536
State median across 72 counties
Median Home Value
$239,600
Income-to-home ratio: 0.31
Building Permits
205,082
Total residential permits
Natural Amenity
7.3 / 10
#15 of 49 · USDA scale

Texas Counties

72 counties
Rank County BTI Score Safety Proj. Growth GDP Pop Growth Income Ratio Home Price Climate P/R
01 Taylor County 100 C+ +6.9% — +1.1% +1.1% 7.2x +6.1% 2.0 10x
02 Hardin County 99 B- +0.1% — +0.9% +4.5% 17.8x +1.1% 1.0 11x
03 Nacogdoches County 94 C+ +0.9% — +0.4% +3.9% 9.6x +2.9% 2.1 12x
04 Anderson County 93 C +1.0% — +1.1% +5.5% 8.5x -0.8% 1.1 15x
05 Bowie County 91 D -0.8% — -0.2% +0.9% 6.9x -0.2% 0.8 13x
06 Lamar County 83 B- +1.2% — +0.5% +1.2% 8.5x +4.5% 0.4 18x
07 Jefferson County 79 D -0.4% — -0.0% +0.1% 4.7x +2.5% 1.0 11x
08 Potter County 79 D +0.6% — -0.6% +5.5% 3.5x +2.5% 2.6 12x
09 Van Zandt County 77 C -0.3% — +2.2% +1.8% 22.9x +1.0% 0.4 17x
10 Cameron County 71 B+ +0.6% — +0.7% +2.5% 8.0x +1.5% 2.5 8x
11 Navarro County 70 D -0.3% — +1.8% +6.4% 10.9x +1.1% 0.6 12x
12 Victoria County 70 C -1.2% — +0.1% +1.1% 9.1x -0.9% -0.8 15x
13 Gregg County 69 D +0.0% — +0.5% +2.7% 5.5x +1.7% 0.2 15x
14 Coryell County 68 B- -1.8% — +1.2% +3.5% 19.7x +0.7% 1.0 13x
15 Orange County 68 C -0.1% — +0.4% -1.7% 8.6x +2.2% 0.4 12x
16 Harrison County 67 D -0.8% — +0.8% +0.1% 9.0x -2.1% 0.5 10x
17 Rusk County 66 C+ -0.7% — +0.4% +1.7% 12.2x +2.2% 1.9 14x
18 Randall County 64 B- +0.6% — +1.6% +3.7% 16.8x +2.5% 2.4 13x
19 Wichita County 60 C -0.3% — +0.1% +2.2% 7.0x -0.3% 0.8 10x
20 Ellis County 55 B- -1.9% — +4.5% +3.9% 19.4x -1.6% 0.2 16x
21 Parker County 53 B+ -1.7% — +4.5% +2.3% 24.5x -0.9% 0.1 19x
22 Galveston County 50 D -1.7% — +1.2% +0.9% 13.9x -2.8% 1.9 17x
23 Smith County 50 C+ -1.0% — +1.6% +3.1% 8.4x -1.1% 0.7 15x
24 El Paso County 49 B +0.1% — +0.5% +1.6% 9.0x +1.5% 4.5 10x
25 Walker County 49 B -2.0% — +2.5% +4.9% 12.6x +0.8% 1.1 14x
26 Chambers County 47 B- -0.6% — +4.7% +1.6% 9.3x +1.4% 1.6 13x
27 Lubbock County 46 C -1.4% — +1.4% +1.2% 7.9x +1.3% 1.1 13x
28 Brazoria County 45 B- -1.7% — +2.5% +3.0% 13.4x -0.8% 1.3 15x
29 Burnet County 44 B- -1.6% — +3.1% +2.0% 18.2x -2.6% 4.4 18x
30 Atascosa County 43 B- -0.1% — +1.9% +1.9% 9.5x +2.4% 0.9 14x
31 Johnson County 43 B -1.7% — +3.6% +3.7% 15.4x -2.3% 0.1 15x
32 Brazos County 41 B -0.6% — +1.8% +0.3% 10.0x +0.7% 0.6 16x
33 Wilson County 40 D -0.7% — +2.5% +2.3% 33.1x +0.7% 0.4 25x
34 Hunt County 37 C+ -1.8% — +3.9% +2.6% 12.3x -3.7% 1.1 13x
35 Hood County 35 B -1.5% — +2.6% +1.6% 19.9x -0.3% 1.4 15x
36 Starr County 33 B- +0.3% — +0.4% -1.4% 10.0x -1.5% 2.0 11x
37 McLennan County 32 C+ -1.9% — +0.9% +4.3% 8.3x -0.7% 0.8 14x
38 Tarrant County 32 C -2.1% — +1.5% +2.8% 9.2x -2.1% 1.0 17x
39 Guadalupe County 30 B -2.5% — +3.0% -1.5% 18.5x -2.2% 0.6 15x
40 Angelina County 29 C -2.4% — +0.6% +3.6% 7.6x -0.4% 1.9 11x
41 Polk County 28 D -1.6% — +2.0% +5.4% 13.9x -2.0% 1.8 16x
42 Ector County 26 C +1.4% — +0.9% +0.7% 5.4x +5.8% 2.5 10x
43 Hidalgo County 24 B -0.7% — +1.3% +3.9% 9.6x +0.5% 0.5 10x
44 Liberty County 24 C -1.9% — +5.5% +6.1% 16.0x +1.3% 0.1 10x
45 Maverick County 24 B +0.7% — +0.5% -3.3% 10.9x +0.7% 0.5 15x
46 Dallas County 22 D -1.9% — +0.7% +3.2% 4.7x -3.5% 0.6 15x
47 Henderson County 22 C -1.8% — +1.4% +1.9% 17.1x -2.5% 2.7 13x
48 Cherokee County 18 B- -1.1% — +1.4% +2.4% 11.2x -5.0% 1.2 15x
49 Medina County 17 B- -2.7% — +2.1% +6.3% 21.8x -2.6% 0.7 12x
50 Kaufman County 14 C+ -2.9% — +7.4% +1.0% 21.0x -4.0% 0.6 14x
51 Nueces County 11 D -2.1% — +0.0% +1.3% 7.1x -0.8% 3.3 12x
52 Bell County 10 D -3.3% — +1.9% +4.3% 11.0x -1.3% 1.3 15x
53 Kerr County 10 B- -1.1% — +0.6% +2.2% 14.9x -3.6% 4.5 16x
54 Montgomery County 10 B -3.0% — +4.5% +0.5% 13.8x -0.9% 1.6 17x
55 Grayson County 9 B- -3.0% — +2.4% +2.5% 11.1x -4.9% 0.8 14x
56 Midland County 9 C+ -0.5% — +1.9% -1.2% 4.7x +2.4% 1.4 16x
57 Bastrop County 8 C -2.6% — +4.1% +4.2% 26.2x -4.3% 0.9 15x
58 Harris County 7 D -3.0% — +1.7% +2.6% 6.0x -2.3% -0.0 15x
59 Tom Green County 6 B- -0.9% — +0.1% +3.2% 8.2x +1.9% 2.6 13x
60 Wise County 5 B- -3.6% — +3.7% +3.9% 16.9x -2.0% 0.9 16x
61 San Patricio County 4 C -3.6% — +0.9% +3.2% 9.6x +1.3% 2.0 11x
62 Rockwall County 4 B+ -3.0% — +5.7% +2.5% 19.7x -2.7% 1.4 17x
63 Webb County 4 B- -2.0% — +0.6% +0.9% 9.9x +2.7% 1.1 12x
64 Bexar County 3 D -4.2% — +1.5% +2.5% 8.5x -2.3% 2.6 16x
65 Denton County 3 B+ -3.3% — +3.6% +3.1% 19.7x -4.8% 1.4 22x
66 Comal County 3 B+ -3.3% — +5.3% +2.9% 17.0x -1.7% 3.2 23x
67 Waller County 2 B- -3.0% — +3.5% +5.6% 11.0x -2.0% 1.3 11x
68 Fort Bend County 2 B- -2.8% — +4.0% +0.6% 20.2x -2.3% -0.5 16x
69 Hays County 2 B -4.9% — +4.8% +3.8% 19.2x -5.5% 2.2 21x
70 Travis County 1 B- -3.6% — +1.7% +2.5% 7.4x -5.8% 3.2 27x
71 Williamson County 0 A -4.1% — +4.5% +2.8% 15.3x -6.1% 0.9 23x
72 Collin County 0 B+ -3.7% — +4.2% +3.4% 10.7x -6.3% 1.0 23x

Capital Investment in Texas

Tracked Projects · Public Records
$476.6B
Total tracked investment
132,269
Jobs announced
344
Projects across 64 counties

Where the money is going

Data Centers $168.2B 35%
Manufacturing $131.8B 28%
Energy $126.7B 27%
Commercial/Residential $26.4B 6%
Infrastructure $18.8B 4%

Top counties by investment

  1. 01 Jefferson County $57.2B
    5 projects · 1,400 jobs
  2. 02 Ellis County $45.7B
    6 projects · 1,100 jobs
  3. 03 Grayson County $42.1B
    5 projects · 4,500 jobs
  4. 04 Cameron County $39.4B
    6 projects
  5. 05 Williamson County $27.4B
    6 projects · 2,100 jobs
  6. 06 Orange County $19.0B
    6 projects · 7,500 jobs

Largest projects in Texas

Project County Amount Status
Industrial Infrastructure Expansion Projects (various)
Various (including Chevron) · Manufacturing · 1,000 jobs
 Jefferson County $56.0B Under Construction
Google Data Center Expansion (Midlothian & Red Oak)
Google · Data Centers
 Ellis County $40.0B Under Construction
Rio Grande LNG Production and Export Terminal (Phase 1)
NextDecade · Energy
 Cameron County $32.0B Under Construction
Texas Instruments Semiconductor Manufacturing Plant
Texas Instruments · Manufacturing · 3,000 jobs
 Grayson County $30.0B Under Construction
Samsung Semiconductor Plant
Samsung Austin Semiconductor, LLC · Manufacturing · 2,000 jobs
 Williamson County $17.0B Under Construction
Natural Gas Generation Plant
NextEra Energy Resources · Energy · 3,000 jobs
 Anderson County $16.0B Under Construction
Cheniere LNG Terminal (Stage 1)
Cheniere Energy, Inc. · Energy · 600 jobs
 San Patricio County $13.0B Under Construction
Texas Critical Data Centers (TCDC) Campus
New Era Energy & Digital, Stream Data Centers, Sharon AI Inc. · Data Centers
 Midland County $12.0B Under Construction
→ Methodology · How We Tracked $4T Across 858 Counties

Source: public records, corporate announcements, state EDC filings. Tracking projects with $25M+ in announced investment or 500+ jobs. Some figures are estimates where exact totals weren't disclosed.

Texas shaded relief terrain map
SRTM 30m shaded relief
State Spotlight · 2026-04-29

Texas job growth slows as housing inventory rises

Economic drivers

Texas's economic expansion in 2025 was supported by energy prices and defense spending. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas forecasts a 1.3% job increase for 2026. Construction, education and health services, and manufacturing showed gains in late 2025 and early 2026.

Housing market right now

The Texas housing market is normalizing with modest home price changes, often flat to low single-digit growth, anticipated for 2025-2026. Active inventory trended higher in 2025, with approximately 128,100 active listings at the start of 2026. Median home prices are projected to increase slightly to around $334,000 by December 2026.

Migration patterns

Texas led the U.S. in new arrivals in 2025, according to U-Haul's Growth Index, marking the seventh time in ten years. Major metros like Austin and San Antonio continue to attract residents, with growth spilling into surrounding counties such as Bexar, Comal, Hays, and Guadalupe.

Headwinds

Job growth in Texas decelerated in 2025, with major metros like Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio experiencing sluggish or declining employment. Restrictive immigration policies and a slowdown in the tech sector contributed to this moderation. Rising homeowners insurance costs also present a challenge, with median premiums increasing 60% from 2019 to 2024.

Key facts

  • Texas employment growth was near zero in 2025, with job gains in Austin (0.9%) and Fort Worth (0.3%), and declines in San Antonio (-0.6%), Dallas (-0.2%), and Houston (-0.1%). (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, February 2026)
  • The Texas economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025. (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, April 2026)
  • Texas committed a record $148 billion to transportation infrastructure in 2024, with this funding forming the backbone of the state's infrastructure pipeline through 2026. (Kitching & Co, October 2025)
  • In 2025, Texas lawmakers passed seven bills aimed at improving housing affordability by reducing regulatory barriers and increasing housing supply. (Texas 2036, August 2025)
  • Apple announced a major investment in its Houston campus in February 2026, including Mac mini production and expansion of AI server manufacturing. (WFAA, April 2026)
Updated 2026-04-29 · grounded research
26 sources
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  2. dallasfed.org
  3. dallasfed.org
  4. texasbankers.com
  5. tpr.org
  6. tradeandindustrydev.com
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  8. noradarealestate.com
  9. pew.org
  10. texas2036.org
  11. wfaa.com
  12. exploreatx.us
  13. uhaul.com
  14. kitchingco.com
  15. fox7austin.com
  16. republictitle.com
  17. tamu.edu
  18. managecasa.com
  19. bluecollarcommercialgroup.com
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  21. youtube.com
  22. tamu.edu
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  24. texas.gov
  25. kitchingco.com
  26. houstonchronicle.com