72 counties · Boom Town Index

Texas

Avg BTI Score
33 / 100
Population
27.7M
+2.0% avg growth
National Rank
#48 of 51

State Overview

Texas's economy experienced a deceleration in job growth during 2025, with major metropolitan areas like Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio seeing near-flat or declining employment, while Austin and Fort Worth recorded modest gains. This slowdown is partly attributed to reduced immigration and a tempering in the tech sector. Despite this, the state's economic output continued to expand, outpacing the national average, driven by factors such as energy prices and increased defense spending.

The housing market in Texas is undergoing a normalization, characterized by modest home price movements and increasing inventory. Legislative changes in 2025 aimed to improve affordability by reducing barriers to construction and allowing more diverse housing types, including apartments on commercially zoned land. Migration into Texas remains strong, with the state reclaiming the top spot for inbound moves in 2025, particularly in North Texas suburbs like Celina, Forney, McKinney, Princeton, and Prosper.

Median Household Income
$71,536
State median across 72 counties
Median Home Value
$239,600
Income-to-home ratio: 0.31
Building Permits
205,082
Total residential permits
Natural Amenity
7.3 / 10
#15 of 49 · USDA scale

Texas Counties

72 counties
Rank County BTI Score Safety Proj. Growth GDP Pop Growth Income Ratio Home Price Climate P/R
01 Taylor County 98 C+ +9.7% — +1.1% +1.1% 7.2x +7.6% 2.0 8x
02 Hardin County 96 B- +4.8% — +0.9% +4.5% 17.8x +1.5% 1.0 11x
03 Kerr County 94 B- +1.1% — +0.6% +2.2% 14.9x -3.0% 4.5 15x
04 Bowie County 90 D +2.5% — -0.2% +0.9% 6.9x +0.6% 0.8 11x
05 Potter County 89 D +4.7% — -0.6% +5.5% 3.5x +3.6% 2.6 12x
06 Angelina County 82 C +0.9% — +0.6% +3.6% 7.6x -0.6% 1.9 10x
07 Randall County 79 B- +4.2% — +1.6% +3.7% 16.8x +2.9% 2.4 14x
08 Nueces County 74 D +2.1% — +0.0% +1.3% 7.1x -0.3% 3.3 12x
09 Wichita County 74 C +4.3% — +0.1% +2.2% 7.0x +1.3% 0.8 10x
10 Navarro County 70 D +4.0% — +1.8% +6.4% 10.9x +0.9% 0.6 12x
11 Cameron County 69 B+ +3.3% — +0.7% +2.5% 8.0x +1.5% 2.5 8x
12 Chambers County 67 B- +2.8% — +4.7% +1.6% 9.3x +1.1% 1.6 13x
13 Galveston County 66 D +1.9% — +1.2% +0.9% 13.9x -2.2% 1.9 16x
14 El Paso County 65 B +3.7% — +0.5% +1.6% 9.0x +1.7% 4.5 10x
15 Victoria County 64 C +3.0% — +0.1% +1.1% 9.1x +0.5% -0.8 14x
16 Burnet County 63 B- -0.3% — +3.1% +2.0% 18.2x -2.3% 4.4 17x
17 Medina County 56 B- +1.3% — +2.1% +6.3% 21.8x -2.8% 0.7 17x
18 Van Zandt County 56 C +2.3% — +2.2% +1.8% 22.9x +0.5% 0.4 17x
19 Parker County 55 B+ +2.2% — +4.5% +2.3% 24.5x -0.5% 0.1 19x
20 Ellis County 52 B- +1.1% — +4.5% +3.9% 19.4x -1.3% 0.2 16x
21 Anderson County 49 C +3.4% — +1.1% +5.5% 8.5x +1.6% 1.1 15x
22 Coryell County 48 B- +2.1% — +1.2% +3.5% 19.7x +0.3% 1.0 13x
23 Rusk County 48 C+ +2.3% — +0.4% +1.7% 12.2x +3.9% 1.9 14x
24 Wilson County 46 D +4.2% — +2.5% +2.3% 33.1x +0.3% 0.4 25x
25 Gregg County 45 D +3.2% — +0.5% +2.7% 5.5x +1.2% 0.2 14x
26 Hood County 43 B +1.0% — +2.6% +1.6% 19.9x -0.4% 1.4 14x
27 Walker County 40 B +1.9% — +2.5% +4.9% 12.6x +0.3% 1.1 14x
28 Brazos County 39 B +2.3% — +1.8% +0.3% 10.0x +0.4% 0.6 17x
29 Smith County 39 C+ +2.5% — +1.6% +3.1% 8.4x -1.0% 0.7 14x
30 McLennan County 32 C+ +1.9% — +0.9% +4.3% 8.3x -0.5% 0.8 14x
31 Lubbock County 30 C +2.0% — +1.4% +1.2% 7.9x +1.9% 1.1 13x
32 Lamar County 29 B- +3.6% — +0.5% +1.2% 8.5x +4.0% 0.4 18x
33 Kaufman County 27 C+ -0.2% — +7.4% +1.0% 21.0x -4.2% 0.6 14x
34 Polk County 27 D +0.1% — +2.0% +5.4% 13.9x -2.6% 1.8 16x
35 San Patricio County 27 C +2.1% — +0.9% +3.2% 9.6x +1.4% 2.0 11x
36 Jefferson County 26 D +3.0% — -0.0% +0.1% 4.7x +3.3% 1.0 11x
37 Starr County 26 B- +3.7% — +0.4% -1.4% 10.0x +1.5% 2.0 11x
38 Travis County 25 B- -2.8% — +1.7% +2.5% 7.4x -5.1% 3.2 26x
39 Brazoria County 23 B- +1.3% — +2.5% +3.0% 13.4x -1.1% 1.3 14x
40 Liberty County 23 C +1.0% — +5.5% +6.1% 16.0x -0.3% 0.1 10x
41 Dallas County 20 D +0.7% — +0.7% +3.2% 4.7x -2.7% 0.6 15x
42 Hidalgo County 17 B +1.1% — +1.3% +3.9% 9.6x +0.4% 0.5 10x
43 Comal County 15 B+ -0.7% — +5.3% +2.9% 17.0x -1.4% 3.2 23x
44 Tarrant County 14 C +1.4% — +1.5% +2.8% 9.2x -1.6% 1.0 16x
45 Cherokee County 13 B- +2.3% — +1.4% +2.4% 11.2x -3.7% 1.2 15x
46 Johnson County 12 B +0.7% — +3.6% +3.7% 15.4x -1.8% 0.1 15x
47 Nacogdoches County 12 C+ +2.8% — +0.4% +3.9% 9.6x +2.6% 2.1 13x
48 Atascosa County 10 B- +0.8% — +1.9% +1.9% 9.5x +1.9% 0.9 14x
49 Tom Green County 9 B- -3.8% — +0.1% +3.2% 8.2x -1.2% 2.6 13x
50 Waller County 8 B- +0.7% — +3.5% +5.6% 11.0x -2.3% 1.3 12x
51 Hays County 8 B -2.4% — +4.8% +3.8% 19.2x -4.8% 2.2 21x
52 Hunt County 7 C+ +0.2% — +3.9% +2.6% 12.3x -3.5% 1.1 13x
53 Bastrop County 6 C -1.1% — +4.1% +4.2% 26.2x -4.6% 0.9 14x
54 Orange County 6 C +2.8% — +0.4% -1.7% 8.6x +2.2% 0.4 12x
55 Montgomery County 5 B -0.6% — +4.5% +0.5% 13.8x -1.4% 1.6 17x
56 Guadalupe County 4 B -0.3% — +3.0% -1.5% 18.5x -2.2% 0.6 15x
57 Denton County 4 B+ -0.6% — +3.6% +3.1% 19.7x -4.2% 1.4 21x
58 Rockwall County 4 B+ +0.5% — +5.7% +2.5% 19.7x -2.5% 1.4 18x
59 Maverick County 4 B +0.5% — +0.5% -3.3% 10.9x -0.4% 0.5 15x
60 Fort Bend County 3 B- -0.2% — +4.0% +0.6% 20.2x -2.2% -0.5 16x
61 Wise County 3 B- -0.2% — +3.7% +3.9% 16.9x -1.3% 0.9 15x
62 Bexar County 3 D -1.8% — +1.5% +2.5% 8.5x -2.1% 2.6 16x
63 Ector County 3 C +2.4% — +0.9% +0.7% 5.4x +5.3% 2.5 11x
64 Bell County 2 D -0.6% — +1.9% +4.3% 11.0x -1.6% 1.3 15x
65 Midland County 2 C+ +1.2% — +1.9% -1.2% 4.7x +1.9% 1.4 16x
66 Grayson County 2 B- -2.4% — +2.4% +2.5% 11.1x -4.9% 0.8 16x
67 Collin County 2 B+ -2.4% — +4.2% +3.4% 10.7x -6.1% 1.0 23x
68 Henderson County 2 C -0.4% — +1.4% +1.9% 17.1x -3.4% 2.7 14x
69 Harris County 1 D -1.0% — +1.7% +2.6% 6.0x -2.3% -0.0 14x
70 Harrison County 1 D -2.2% — +0.8% +0.1% 9.0x -1.4% 0.5 11x
71 Webb County 0 B- +1.9% — +0.6% +0.9% 9.9x +2.8% 1.1 12x
72 Williamson County 0 A -2.2% — +4.5% +2.8% 15.3x -6.2% 0.9 22x

Capital Investment in Texas

Tracked Projects · Public Records
$476.6B
Total tracked investment
132,269
Jobs announced
344
Projects across 64 counties

Where the money is going

Data Centers $168.2B 35%
Manufacturing $131.8B 28%
Energy $126.7B 27%
Commercial/Residential $26.4B 6%
Infrastructure $18.8B 4%

Top counties by investment

  1. 01 Jefferson County $57.2B
    5 projects · 1,400 jobs
  2. 02 Ellis County $45.7B
    6 projects · 1,100 jobs
  3. 03 Grayson County $42.1B
    5 projects · 4,500 jobs
  4. 04 Cameron County $39.4B
    6 projects
  5. 05 Williamson County $27.4B
    6 projects · 2,100 jobs
  6. 06 Orange County $19.0B
    6 projects · 7,500 jobs

Largest projects in Texas

Project County Amount Status
Industrial Infrastructure Expansion Projects (various)
Various (including Chevron) · Manufacturing · 1,000 jobs
 Jefferson County $56.0B Under Construction
Google Data Center Expansion (Midlothian & Red Oak)
Google · Data Centers
 Ellis County $40.0B Under Construction
Rio Grande LNG Production and Export Terminal (Phase 1)
NextDecade · Energy
 Cameron County $32.0B Under Construction
Texas Instruments Semiconductor Manufacturing Plant
Texas Instruments · Manufacturing · 3,000 jobs
 Grayson County $30.0B Under Construction
Samsung Semiconductor Plant
Samsung Austin Semiconductor, LLC · Manufacturing · 2,000 jobs
 Williamson County $17.0B Under Construction
Natural Gas Generation Plant
NextEra Energy Resources · Energy · 3,000 jobs
 Anderson County $16.0B Under Construction
Cheniere LNG Terminal (Stage 1)
Cheniere Energy, Inc. · Energy · 600 jobs
 San Patricio County $13.0B Under Construction
Texas Critical Data Centers (TCDC) Campus
New Era Energy & Digital, Stream Data Centers, Sharon AI Inc. · Data Centers
 Midland County $12.0B Under Construction
→ Methodology · How We Tracked $4T Across 858 Counties

Source: public records, corporate announcements, state EDC filings. Tracking projects with $25M+ in announced investment or 500+ jobs. Some figures are estimates where exact totals weren't disclosed.

Texas shaded relief terrain map
SRTM 30m shaded relief
State Spotlight · 2026-04-29

Texas job growth slows as housing inventory rises

Economic drivers

Texas's economic expansion in 2025 was supported by energy prices and defense spending. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas forecasts a 1.3% job increase for 2026. Construction, education and health services, and manufacturing showed gains in late 2025 and early 2026.

Housing market right now

The Texas housing market is normalizing with modest home price changes, often flat to low single-digit growth, anticipated for 2025-2026. Active inventory trended higher in 2025, with approximately 128,100 active listings at the start of 2026. Median home prices are projected to increase slightly to around $334,000 by December 2026.

Migration patterns

Texas led the U.S. in new arrivals in 2025, according to U-Haul's Growth Index, marking the seventh time in ten years. Major metros like Austin and San Antonio continue to attract residents, with growth spilling into surrounding counties such as Bexar, Comal, Hays, and Guadalupe.

Headwinds

Job growth in Texas decelerated in 2025, with major metros like Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio experiencing sluggish or declining employment. Restrictive immigration policies and a slowdown in the tech sector contributed to this moderation. Rising homeowners insurance costs also present a challenge, with median premiums increasing 60% from 2019 to 2024.

Key facts

  • Texas employment growth was near zero in 2025, with job gains in Austin (0.9%) and Fort Worth (0.3%), and declines in San Antonio (-0.6%), Dallas (-0.2%), and Houston (-0.1%). (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, February 2026)
  • The Texas economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025. (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, April 2026)
  • Texas committed a record $148 billion to transportation infrastructure in 2024, with this funding forming the backbone of the state's infrastructure pipeline through 2026. (Kitching & Co, October 2025)
  • In 2025, Texas lawmakers passed seven bills aimed at improving housing affordability by reducing regulatory barriers and increasing housing supply. (Texas 2036, August 2025)
  • Apple announced a major investment in its Houston campus in February 2026, including Mac mini production and expansion of AI server manufacturing. (WFAA, April 2026)
Updated 2026-04-29 · grounded research
26 sources
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  2. dallasfed.org
  3. dallasfed.org
  4. texasbankers.com
  5. tpr.org
  6. tradeandindustrydev.com
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  8. noradarealestate.com
  9. pew.org
  10. texas2036.org
  11. wfaa.com
  12. exploreatx.us
  13. uhaul.com
  14. kitchingco.com
  15. fox7austin.com
  16. republictitle.com
  17. tamu.edu
  18. managecasa.com
  19. bluecollarcommercialgroup.com
  20. utsa.edu
  21. youtube.com
  22. tamu.edu
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  24. texas.gov
  25. kitchingco.com
  26. houstonchronicle.com