32 / 100

Tarrant County, TX

RANK #680 / 1001 NAT  ·  #38 / 72 TX  ·  POP 2,167,390

1YR FORECAST: -2.1%

5YR OUTLOOK: +26%

Our model projects Tarrant County's housing market at -2.1% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Tarrant County?

The Fort Worth Stockyards National Historic District stands as a prominent feature of Tarrant County, offering a glimpse into its "Cowtown" heritage with daily cattle drives, rodeos, and Western-themed entertainment. Located in North Central Texas, Tarrant County is part of the larger Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. Commuting within the county relies heavily on major routes like I-20, I-30, SH 360, and US 287, though rail options like Trinity Metro's TEXRail connect Fort Worth to DFW Airport. The county offers diverse natural scenery, from rolling prairies in the west to timbered lands in the east, with the Trinity River as a central feature. Outdoor recreation includes over 100 miles of trails along the Trinity River, parks like Eagle Mountain Lake Park, and the Fort Worth Nature Center & Refuge.

Life in Tarrant County offers a blend of urban and suburban living, with communities ranging from the arts and dining scene in Fort Worth to family-focused neighborhoods in towns like Southlake and Keller. The county is home to numerous school districts, including Fort Worth ISD, Arlington ISD, Grapevine-Colleyville ISD, and Keller ISD. The economy is driven by sectors such as healthcare, aviation, education, and manufacturing, with ongoing investment in commercial and residential development. Tarrant County College also contributes significantly to the local economy by preparing students for the workforce.

MARKET PROFILE

Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction

Tarrant County is one of 76 U.S. counties in this market profile — stronger than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of -2.1% runs above the profile's typical -3.7%.

See all 76 Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
9.2x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
-2.1%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
1.0

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
17x

Above national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 9.2x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Texas Health Resources Healthcare
    25,000+
  2. 2
    American Airlines Group Inc. Logistics
    10,000+
  3. 3
    Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company Manufacturing
  4. 4
    NAS Fort Worth Joint Reserve Base Military
  5. 5
    Fort Worth Independent School District Education
  6. 6
    Cook Children's Health Care System Healthcare
    5,000+
  7. 7
    Arlington Independent School District Education
  8. 8
    JPS Health Network Healthcare
  9. 9
    University of Texas at Arlington Education
  10. 10
    City of Fort Worth Government

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Tarrant County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
2,167,390
+1.48% YoY
Median Household Income
$84,207
Median Home Value
$323,900
-2.14% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,547
Average Annual Pay
$74,895
+3.1% YoY
Employment
1,016,221
+0.6% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.26
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
2.94%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
34.8%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$355,000
Days on Market
40
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
3.1
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.5%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
21.5%
Listings w/ Price Drops
34.5%
Building Permits (2025)
13,924
Single-Family Permits
8,658

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
6.6
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
13.8
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
60.9
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Near national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

C+
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
54.3
Moderate
Good Air Days
36%
392 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
63
Includes 1 Very Unhealthy
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
52
2022
54
2023
57
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$4,780M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
ACS Group Data Center
ACS Group
$2,200M Planned
Black Mountain Power Data Center Campus
Black Mountain Power LLC
$1,000M Under Construction
Wistron Supercomputer Factories (2 facilities)
Wistron (U.S. subsidiary)
$750M Planned
Fort Worth Stockyards Expansion (Phase 2)
Unknown
$630M Planned
Bell Aircraft Parts Factory
Bell
$100M Planned
Chisholm Grid Energy Storage System
Chisholm Grid, LLC
$100M Operating

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +1.5% 79 percentile
Income Growth +2.8% 52 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.9% 9 percentile
Home Price Change -2.1% 11 percentile
Rent Growth +0.3% 13 percentile
Price/Rent 17x 35 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Tarrant County, TX a good place to move to?

At 32/100, Tarrant County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 1001 counties we track. Median income of $84,207 combined with job growth of +0.6% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Tarrant County affordable?

Housing in Tarrant County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $323,900 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.26, with rents averaging $1,547/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Tarrant County growing or shrinking?

Tarrant County's population is growing — up +1.5% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of +0.6%). Home values shifted -2.1% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.

Are people moving to Tarrant County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 2.94% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Tarrant County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

McLennan County, TX 32 Starr County, TX 33 Guadalupe County, TX 30 Hood County, TX 35 Angelina County, TX 29 Polk County, TX 28 New York County, NY 33 Broward County, FL 34