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Cherokee County, TX

RANK #818 / 1001 NAT  ·  #48 / 72 TX  ·  POP 51,886

1YR FORECAST: -1.1%

5YR OUTLOOK: +23%

Our model projects Cherokee County's housing market at -1.1% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Cherokee County?

Cherokee County, located in East Texas, is perhaps best known for Jacksonville, once dubbed the "Tomato Capital of the World." This city, roughly 130 miles southeast of Dallas and 160 miles north of Houston, still celebrates its agricultural heritage with an annual Tomato Fest. The county offers a relaxed, rural lifestyle amidst piney woods and rolling hills, with outdoor recreation centered around Lake Jacksonville, Lake Palestine, and Striker Creek Reservoir, providing opportunities for boating, fishing, and hiking. Commutes within the county average around 24.4 minutes, shorter than the national average.

Life in Cherokee County often appeals to families and those seeking a quieter pace. Public schools in the county are generally rated above average. While agriculture remains a component of the economy, the region has seen investments in sectors such as timber, oil, and natural gas. The cost of living in Cherokee County is lower than the national average, particularly for housing.

MARKET PROFILE

Idiosyncratic Markets

Cherokee County's data profile doesn't fit any single market profile cleanly — its housing, labor, and demographic signals pull in different directions (home prices -5.0% YoY, population +1.4%, wages +2.8%). About 414 U.S. counties show this kind of mixed-signal pattern.

See all 414 Idiosyncratic Markets counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
11.2x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
-5.0%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
1.2

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
15x

Below national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 11.2x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Jacksonville Independent School District Education
    500+
  2. 2
    Rusk State Hospital Healthcare
  3. 3
    Cherokee County Board of Education Education
  4. 4
    KTH Leesburg Products Manufacturing
    250+
  5. 5
    Cherokee County Health and Rehabilitation Healthcare
  6. 6
    Bealls – Distribution Center Retail
  7. 7
    CHRISTUS Mother Frances Hospital/Clinic Healthcare
  8. 8
    Walmart Supercenter Retail
  9. 9
    Cardinal Health Healthcare
  10. 10
    Federal Health Healthcare

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Cherokee County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
51,886
+1.45% YoY
Median Household Income
$61,261
Median Home Value
$169,300
-4.99% 12mo
Median Rent
$933
Average Annual Pay
$52,506
+2.8% YoY
Employment
14,946
+0.2% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.3618
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
6.46%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
18.9%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$275,000
Days on Market
143
Slower market
Months of Supply
5.9
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
93.9%
Negotiation room for buyers
Listings w/ Price Drops
35.1%
Building Permits (2025)
43
Single-Family Permits
37

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B-
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
4.7
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
16.5
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
88.2
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Capital Investment

$2,650M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
FGE Eagle Pines Natural Gas Electrical Generation Facility
FGE Power and FGE Power Management Corp.
$2,100M Proposed
Rainbow Springs Solar Farm
Clearway Energy Group
$500M Proposed
Cherokee Tree Farm Retreat and Conference Center
TRC Companies (developer for water features)
$50M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +1.4% 78 percentile
Income Growth +2.4% 39 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.7% 12 percentile
Home Price Change -5.0% 2 percentile
Price/Rent 15x 53 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Cherokee County, TX a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Cherokee County scores just 18/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #818 of 1001 counties. Job growth at +0.2% and median household income of $61,261 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Cherokee County affordable?

By national standards, Cherokee County is quite affordable. Homes here have a median value of $169,300, and the income-to-home-value ratio of 0.36 is well above the U.S. average — especially with median rent at just $933/month. Residents can generally buy a home without being cost-burdened.

Is Cherokee County growing or shrinking?

Cherokee County's population is growing — up +1.4% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of +0.2%). Home values shifted -5.0% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.

Are people moving to Cherokee County?

In significant numbers — 6.46% of Cherokee County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Medina County, TX 17 Dallas County, TX 22 Henderson County, TX 22 Kaufman County, TX 14 Hidalgo County, TX 24 Liberty County, TX 24 Pender County, NC 18 Bristol County, RI 19