22 / 100

Henderson County, TX

RANK #776 / 1001 NAT  ·  #47 / 72 TX  ·  POP 84,862

1YR FORECAST: -1.8%

5YR OUTLOOK: +24%

Our model projects Henderson County's housing market at -1.8% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Henderson County?

The "Black-Eyed Pea Capital of the World," Athens, Texas, anchors Henderson County, located about 60 miles southeast of Dallas. This East Texas county offers a blend of rural charm and access to urban amenities, with a commute to Dallas possible via US Highway 175. The community maintains a small-town feel, and its natural setting is a significant draw. Henderson County sits within the Piney Woods region, characterized by rolling hills, diverse forests, and access to major water bodies like Cedar Creek Reservoir and Lake Palestine, providing opportunities for fishing, boating, and other water-based recreation. The county also features numerous trails for hiking and biking.

Life in Henderson County appeals to a mix of residents, including families and retirees, drawn by the area's quality of life and outdoor activities. Public schools in the county are generally above average. While many residents own their homes, public transportation options like GoBus Transit offer in-county service and limited routes to Tyler. The local economy is supported by agriculture, manufacturing, and tourism. Recent economic developments include investments in energy sectors, contributing to the county's economic landscape.

MARKET PROFILE
LEANS TOWARD

Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction

Henderson County is one of 76 U.S. counties in this market profile — stronger than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of -2.5% runs above the profile's typical -3.7%.

See all 76 Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
17.1x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
-2.5%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
2.7

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
13x

Below national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 17.1x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Walmart Retail
    500+
  2. 2
    UT Health Henderson Healthcare
    250+
  3. 3
    Bradshaw State Jail Government
  4. 4
    CAPCO Fabricators, Inc., CAPCO Supply, CAPCO Contractors Manufacturing
    100+
  5. 5
    VeraBank Finance
  6. 6
    City of Henderson Government
  7. 7
    Boral Bricks, Inc. (Henderson Plant) Manufacturing
    50
  8. 8
    Cold Vault Other

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Henderson County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
84,862
+1.44% YoY
Median Household Income
$65,179
Median Home Value
$211,300
-2.53% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,048
Average Annual Pay
$52,260
+7.2% YoY
Employment
20,057
+2.7% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.3085
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
5.35%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
20.7%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$276,750
Days on Market
72
Slower market
Months of Supply
6.4
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
96.5%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
10.9%
Listings w/ Price Drops
32.2%
Building Permits (2025)
176
Single-Family Permits
166

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
6.2
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
22.3
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
105.5
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Near national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Capital Investment

$1,059M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Anatole Renewable Energy Storage
Eustace Storage LLC
$208M Active In Queue
Sloan Storage
Unknown
$201M Planned
Forest Grove Solar Facility
Vistra (Luminant)
$200M Operating
Tanzanite Storage
Tanzanite Energy Storage LLC (Belltown Power Texas)
$200M Planned
BT McGee Solar (Battery Storage)
Belltown Power Texas
$200M Planned
Henderson County Solar
Community Energy Inc.
$50M Operating

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +1.4% 78 percentile
Income Growth +1.9% 30 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.1% 38 percentile
Home Price Change -2.5% 9 percentile
Rent Growth +1.7% 31 percentile
Price/Rent 13x 75 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Henderson County, TX a good place to move to?

At 22/100, Henderson County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 1001 counties we track. Median income of $65,179 combined with job growth of +2.7% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Henderson County affordable?

Housing in Henderson County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $211,300 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.31, with rents averaging $1,048/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Henderson County growing or shrinking?

Henderson County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +1.4% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +2.7% clip. Home values shifted -2.5% in the past year.

Are people moving to Henderson County?

In significant numbers — 5.35% of Henderson County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Dallas County, TX 22 Hidalgo County, TX 24 Liberty County, TX 24 Maverick County, TX 24 Ector County, TX 26 Cherokee County, TX 18 James City County, VA 22 Boone County, IN 22