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Henderson County, TX

Cedar Creek Lake

RANK #870 / 996 NAT  ·  #50 / 69 TX  ·  POP 82,627

1YR FORECAST: -0.4%

5YR OUTLOOK: +13%

Our model projects Henderson County's housing market at -0.4% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Henderson County?

The "Black-Eyed Pea Capital of the World," Athens, Texas, anchors Henderson County, located about 60 miles southeast of Dallas. This East Texas county offers a blend of rural charm and access to urban amenities, with a commute to Dallas possible via US Highway 175. The community maintains a small-town feel, and its natural setting is a significant draw. Henderson County sits within the Piney Woods region, characterized by rolling hills, diverse forests, and access to major water bodies like Cedar Creek Reservoir and Lake Palestine, providing opportunities for fishing, boating, and other water-based recreation. The county also features numerous trails for hiking and biking.

Life in Henderson County appeals to a mix of residents, including families and retirees, drawn by the area's quality of life and outdoor activities. Public schools in the county are generally above average. While many residents own their homes, public transportation options like GoBus Transit offer in-county service and limited routes to Tyler. The local economy is supported by agriculture, manufacturing, and tourism. Recent economic developments include investments in energy sectors, contributing to the county's economic landscape.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
6.2x

Above national median (4.7x)

GDP Growth
+4.4%

Well above national median

Home Prices
-1.9%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
2.7

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
10x

Strong rental yield

Housing is fairly valued at 6.2x relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Walmart Retail
    500+
  2. 2
    UT Health Henderson Healthcare
    250+
  3. 3
    Bradshaw State Jail Government
  4. 4
    CAPCO Fabricators, Inc., CAPCO Supply, CAPCO Contractors Manufacturing
    100+
  5. 5
    VeraBank Finance
  6. 6
    City of Henderson Government
  7. 7
    Boral Bricks, Inc. (Henderson Plant) Manufacturing
    50
  8. 8
    Cold Vault Other

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Henderson County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
82,627
+1.11% YoY
Median Household Income
$59,778
Median Home Value
$159,600
-1.93% 12mo
Median Rent
$958
Average Annual Pay
$48,745
+6.5% YoY
Employment
19,534
+1.5% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.3745
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
5.56%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
19.1%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$289,500
Days on Market
124
Slower market
Months of Supply
10.4
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
95.6%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
5.2%
Listings w/ Price Drops
29.8%
Building Permits (2024)
274
Single-Family Permits
258

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
6.2
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
22.3
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
105.5
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Near national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Capital Investment

$1,059M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Anatole Renewable Energy Storage
Eustace Storage LLC
$208M Active In Queue
Sloan Storage
Unknown
$201M Planned
Forest Grove Solar Facility
Vistra (Luminant)
$200M Operating
Tanzanite Storage
Tanzanite Energy Storage LLC (Belltown Power Texas)
$200M Planned
BT McGee Solar (Battery Storage)
Belltown Power Texas
$200M Planned
Henderson County Solar
Community Energy Inc.
$50M Operating

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +4.4% 78 percentile
Population Growth +1.1% 75 percentile
Income Growth +15.0% 99 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.3% 34 percentile
Home Price Change -1.9% 15 percentile
Rent Growth -0.2% 10 percentile
Price/Rent 10x 93 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Henderson County, TX a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Henderson County scores just 12/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #870 of 996 counties. Job growth at +1.5% and median household income of $59,778 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Henderson County affordable?

By national standards, Henderson County is quite affordable. Homes here have a median value of $159,600, and the income-to-home-value ratio of 0.37 is well above the U.S. average — especially with median rent at just $958/month. Residents can generally buy a home without being cost-burdened.

Is Henderson County growing or shrinking?

Henderson County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +1.1% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +1.5% clip. Home values shifted -1.9% in the past year.

Are people moving to Henderson County?

In significant numbers — 5.56% of Henderson County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Hunt County, TX 12 Kaufman County, TX 13 San Patricio County, TX 11 Dallas County, TX 14 Tarrant County, TX 10 Bell County, TX 9 Oldham County, KY 12 Effingham County, GA 12