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Grayson County, TX

RANK #904 / 1001 NAT  ·  #55 / 72 TX  ·  POP 143,337

1YR FORECAST: -3.0%

5YR OUTLOOK: +18%

Our model projects Grayson County's housing market at -3.0% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Grayson County?

Grayson County, Texas, once known as the "Athens of Texas" for its 19th-century schools, is located in north central Texas, approximately 65 miles north of Dallas. The county's northern border is defined by the Red River and Lake Texoma, a large reservoir offering opportunities for fishing, boating, and water sports. Eisenhower State Park, situated on Lake Texoma, provides hiking and biking trails, along with camping facilities. The area features rolling hills and diverse trees like post oak, bois d'arc, elm, and walnut. Commuting to Dallas is possible, with public transportation provided by Texoma Area Paratransit System (TAPS), which also offers connections to Dallas Area Rapid Transit (DART) services.

Life in Grayson County offers a blend of small-town character and access to larger city amenities. The community is described as welcoming, with towns like Sherman and Denison hosting local festivals and events. Education is a focus, with several school districts known for academic programs and extracurricular activities. Recent economic developments include significant investments in manufacturing, particularly in the semiconductor industry, which is attracting new residents and businesses to the area. This growth is also driving new residential and commercial construction.

MARKET PROFILE

Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction

Grayson County is one of 76 U.S. counties in this market profile — near the profile average on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of -4.9% runs below the profile's typical -3.7%.

See all 76 Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
11.1x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
-4.9%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
0.8

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
14x

Below national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 11.1x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Texoma Medical Center Healthcare
    2,500+
  2. 2
    Tyson Fresh Meats Manufacturing
    1,000+
  3. 3
    Sherman Independent School District Education
  4. 4
    Ruiz Foods Manufacturing
  5. 5
    Texas Instruments Technology
  6. 6
    Walmart / Sam's Retail
    500+
  7. 7
    CIGNA Finance
  8. 8
    Denison Independent School District Education
  9. 9
    Carrus Specialty Hospital Healthcare
  10. 10
    Grayson County Government

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Grayson County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
143,337
+2.39% YoY
Median Household Income
$72,182
Median Home Value
$248,400
-4.87% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,310
Average Annual Pay
$60,748
+4.2% YoY
Employment
52,998
+1.9% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2906
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
6.59%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
23.9%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$315,000
Days on Market
88
Slower market
Months of Supply
6.2
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
96.8%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
10.0%
Listings w/ Price Drops
37.6%
Building Permits (2025)
1,881
Single-Family Permits
1,175

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B-
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
4.4
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
15.9
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
75.5
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Capital Investment

$42,150M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Texas Instruments Semiconductor Manufacturing Plant
Texas Instruments
$30,000M Under Construction
Lake Texoma Mixed-Use Development & Margaritaville Resort
Undisclosed
$6,100M Planned
GlobiTech Semiconductor Manufacturing Plant
GlobiTech
$5,000M Under Construction
Platinum Ranch Master-Planned Community
Centurion American Development Group
$1,000M Planned
Dallas North Tollway Extension (Grayson County Tollway)
Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT)
$50M Proposed

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +2.4% 91 percentile
Income Growth +2.5% 40 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.8% 67 percentile
Home Price Change -4.9% 2 percentile
Rent Growth -2.4% 2 percentile
Price/Rent 14x 60 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Grayson County, TX a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Grayson County scores just 9/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #904 of 1001 counties. Job growth at +1.9% and median household income of $72,182 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Grayson County affordable?

Housing in Grayson County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $248,400 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.29, with rents averaging $1,310/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Grayson County growing or shrinking?

Grayson County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +2.4% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +1.9% clip. Home values shifted -4.9% in the past year.

Are people moving to Grayson County?

In significant numbers — 6.59% of Grayson County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Midland County, TX 9 Bell County, TX 10 Kerr County, TX 10 Montgomery County, TX 10 Bastrop County, TX 8 Nueces County, TX 11 Newton County, GA 9 Orange County, NC 8