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Collin County, TX

Plano

RANK #986 / 996 NAT  ·  #68 / 69 TX  ·  POP 1,079,153

1YR FORECAST: -3.6%

5YR OUTLOOK: -2%

#16 Fastest Growing
Our model projects Collin County's housing market at -3.6% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Collin County?

McKinney, the county seat of Collin County, offers a distinctive historic downtown area with 19th-century buildings, boutiques, and art galleries. Located just northeast of Dallas, Collin County is part of the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area. Commutes to Dallas are common, and the community feel ranges from urban sophistication in cities like Plano and Frisco to a more rural atmosphere in towns such as Anna and Farmersville. The county features outdoor recreation opportunities like Oak Point Park and Nature Preserve, offering trails, kayaking, and paddle boating, and Parkhill Prairie, a 436-acre preserve with Blackland tall-grass prairie.

Life in Collin County attracts families and professionals, drawn by highly-rated public schools and a range of housing options. The economy is experiencing significant growth, driven by corporate relocations, mixed-use developments, and infrastructure investments. This expansion includes major investments in technology, entertainment, and various other sectors, contributing to a strong job market. The county's population has surged, with cities like Princeton experiencing rapid growth.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
4.7x

Below national median (4.7x)

GDP Growth
+5.5%

Well above national median

Home Prices
-5.8%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
1.0

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
20x

Prices detached from rents

Housing is fairly valued at 4.7x relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Independent School Districts of Collin County Education
  2. 2
    JP Morgan Chase Finance
  3. 3
    Raytheon Technologies Technology
  4. 4
    Baylor Scott & White Health Healthcare
  5. 5
    Frito-Lay Manufacturing
  6. 6
    Toyota Manufacturing
  7. 7
    Ericsson Technology
  8. 8
    Hewlett Packard Enterprise Technology
  9. 9
    Liberty Mutual Finance
  10. 10
    Fannie Mae Finance

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Collin County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
1,079,153
+3.78% YoY
Median Household Income
$113,255
Median Home Value
$411,100
-5.82% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,689
Average Annual Pay
$88,091
+5.8% YoY
Employment
546,526
+3.2% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2755
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
4.32%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
54.3%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$435,000
Days on Market
93
Slower market
Months of Supply
4.8
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.4%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
9.1%
Listings w/ Price Drops
35.9%
Building Permits (2024)
18,813
Single-Family Permits
14,425

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
2.3
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
8.3
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
41.5
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
39.3
Good
Good Air Days
79%
844 of 1,072 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
36
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
37
2022
40
2023
41
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$6,628M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Collin County Outer Loop (Segments 1 & 3, and overall plan)
Collin County
$2,000M Under Construction
CoreWeave Data Center
CoreWeave
$1,600M Completed
Collin County Campus Expansion Projects
Collin County
$1,438M Under Construction
Google Data Center (Red Oak, impacting North Texas)
Google
$600M Under Construction
Encore Wire Expansion
Encore Wire
$500M Under Construction
Mallard BESS Battery Storage Project
Peregrine Energy Solutions
$490M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +5.5% 87 percentile
Population Growth +3.8% 98 percentile
Income Growth +8.6% 52 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.6% 19 percentile
Home Price Change -5.8% 2 percentile
Rent Growth -1.1% 5 percentile
Price/Rent 20x 8 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Collin County, TX a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Collin County scores just 0/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #986 of 996 counties. Job growth at +3.2% and median household income of $113,255 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Collin County affordable?

Housing in Collin County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $411,100 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.28, with rents averaging $1,689/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Collin County growing or shrinking?

Collin County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +3.8% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +3.2% clip. Home values shifted -5.8% in the past year.

Are people moving to Collin County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 4.32% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Collin County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

Is the housing market declining in Collin County?

Home values fell -5.8% over the past year in Collin County, bringing the median down to $411,100. A drop of that magnitude usually reflects weakening demand or population outflow — worth watching if you're considering buying here.

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