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Kaufman County, TX

Forney

RANK #860 / 996 NAT  ·  #48 / 69 TX  ·  POP 149,773

1YR FORECAST: -1.5%

5YR OUTLOOK: +14%

#1 Fastest Growing
Our model projects Kaufman County's housing market at -1.5% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Kaufman County?

Kaufman County, Texas, east of Dallas, is known for its blend of small-town atmosphere and rapid growth. Forney, the largest city, and Kaufman, the county seat, are key communities. The county is often described as where "East Texas begins," offering a quieter lifestyle while remaining accessible to Dallas, roughly 30 minutes away. Commuting to Dallas primarily uses US-175. Outdoor recreation is available at places like the John Bunker Sands Wetlands, a nature preserve with over 270 bird species, and Kaufman City Lakes Park, which offers fishing and hiking.

Life in Kaufman County appeals to families seeking a balance between rural charm and suburban conveniences. The area has seen significant population growth, ranking as one of the fastest-growing counties in the nation. Education is supported by six school districts and two community colleges, including Kaufman ISD and Forney ISD. The economy is experiencing broad investment, with new residential developments and commercial services emerging. This growth is attracting new residents, including those who may commute to Dallas for work or who have transitioned to remote work.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
7.3x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+6.6%

Well above national median

Home Prices
-4.0%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
0.6

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
11x

Strong rental yield

Housing looks overvalued at 7.3x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Kaufman County Government
    500+
  2. 2
    Kaufman ISD Education
  3. 3
    Walmart Retail
    250+
  4. 4
    Numo Manufacturing Manufacturing
    100+
  5. 5
    Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital Healthcare
  6. 6
    Enertech Manufacturing
  7. 7
    Trinity Valley Electric Co-Op Energy
  8. 8
    Falcon Steel Manufacturing
  9. 9
    Sunflower Park Healthcare
  10. 10
    Brookshire's Retail
    76

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Kaufman County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
149,773
+6.87% YoY
Median Household Income
$84,075
Median Home Value
$256,900
-4.05% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,286
Average Annual Pay
$55,964
+4.0% YoY
Employment
43,536
+6.2% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.3273
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
9.27%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
23.8%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$300,000
Days on Market
103
Slower market
Months of Supply
6.8
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.7%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
13.4%
Listings w/ Price Drops
30.4%
Building Permits (2024)
1,745
Single-Family Permits
1,557

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
5.8
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
16.7
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
72.1
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Near national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
43.3
Good
Good Air Days
68%
743 of 1,094 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
12
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
40
2022
44
2023
46
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$1,646M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Mystic Springs Renewable Energy (Solar + BESS)
Mystic Springs Renewable Energy
$500M Proposed
Kaufman Economic Development Corp. Industrial Park
Kaufman Economic Development Corporation
$340M Planned
Ables Springs Solar + Storage Project
Enel North America
$301M Under Construction
Sowers Storage Battery Project
Sowers Energy Storage LLC
$204M Planned
Lily Solar + Storage Plant
Enel Green Power / Lily Solar, LLC
$181M Operating
Amazon Distribution Center (Project Spitfire)
Amazon
$120M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +6.6% 93 percentile
Population Growth +6.9% 100 percentile
Income Growth +11.8% 95 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.2% 42 percentile
Home Price Change -4.0% 5 percentile
Rent Growth +1.8% 31 percentile
Price/Rent 11x 76 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Kaufman County, TX a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Kaufman County scores just 13/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #860 of 996 counties. Job growth at +6.2% and median household income of $84,075 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Kaufman County affordable?

Housing in Kaufman County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $256,900 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.33, with rents averaging $1,286/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Kaufman County growing or shrinking?

Kaufman County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +6.9% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +6.2% clip. Home values shifted -4.0% in the past year.

Are people moving to Kaufman County?

In significant numbers — 9.27% of Kaufman County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Dallas County, TX 14 Hunt County, TX 12 Henderson County, TX 12 San Patricio County, TX 11 Starr County, TX 16 Galveston County, TX 16 Terrebonne Parish, LA 13 Chelan County, WA 13