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Travis County, TX

Austin

RANK #981 / 996 NAT  ·  #67 / 69 TX  ·  POP 1,289,054

1YR FORECAST: -6.2%

5YR OUTLOOK: +3%

Our model projects Travis County's housing market at -6.2% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Travis County?

Travis County, Texas, is perhaps best known as home to Austin, the state capital and a hub for music and culture. Located in Central Texas, it spans rolling hills to the west and fertile plains to the east, bisected by the Colorado River, which forms lakes like Lake Travis and Lake Austin. This geography contributes to abundant outdoor recreation, including hiking, biking, swimming, and boating in its 26 parks and preserves such as Hamilton Pool Preserve and Pace Bend Park. Commute times can vary, with public transportation options like Capital Metro buses and the MetroRail offering alternatives to driving, particularly for those traveling to downtown Austin.

Life in Travis County offers a blend of urban amenities and access to natural spaces. The county is served by several public school districts, including Austin ISD, Eanes ISD, and Lake Travis ISD. Recent economic developments show ongoing investment across various sectors. While the county has experienced a population boom, leading to increased pressure on infrastructure, efforts are underway to manage growth and ensure continued quality of life. The local economy is seeing activity in areas such as manufacturing, with new facilities being built, and continued development in commercial and residential construction.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
3.5x

Undervalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+3.0%

Above national median

Home Prices
-6.2%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
3.2

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
24x

Prices detached from rents

Housing looks undervalued at 3.5x — home prices are low relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    State of Texas Government
    50,000+
  2. 2
    The University of Texas at Austin Education
    10,000+
  3. 3
    Ascension Seton Healthcare
  4. 4
    H-E-B Retail
  5. 5
    City of Austin Government
  6. 6
    Dell Technologies Technology
  7. 7
    Federal Government Government
  8. 8
    Austin Independent School District Education
  9. 9
    St. David's HealthCare Partnership Healthcare
  10. 10
    Samsung Austin Semiconductor Manufacturing
    5,000+

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Travis County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
1,289,054
+1.68% YoY
Median Household Income
$92,731
Median Home Value
$444,800
-6.21% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,561
Average Annual Pay
$96,267
+5.8% YoY
Employment
903,333
-0.1% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2085
Near national average
Migration Inflow
4.16%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
53.8%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$490,000
Days on Market
106
Slower market
Months of Supply
6.0
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
96.8%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
11.0%
Listings w/ Price Drops
26.7%
Building Permits (2024)
16,990
Single-Family Permits
4,559

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B-
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
4.3
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
10.3
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
65.2
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

C+
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
52.0
Moderate
Good Air Days
46%
507 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
19
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
51
2022
51
2023
54
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$1,635M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
EdgeConneX Data Center Campus (AUS02)
EdgeConneX
$440M Under Construction
Civil and Family Courts Facility
Travis County
$333M Completed
Central Health Capital Investments
Central Health
$290M Proposed
East Blackland Solar Project (Pflugerville Solar Farm)
Duke Energy
$234M Operating
GFTX BESS Battery Storage Project
Giga Texas Energy LLC
$188M Operating
TX12 Silicon Hill Storage
Key Capture Energy
$150M Operating

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +3.0% 55 percentile
Population Growth +1.7% 86 percentile
Income Growth +9.0% 64 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.2% 40 percentile
Home Price Change -6.2% 1 percentile
Rent Growth -2.6% 1 percentile
Price/Rent 24x 3 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Travis County, TX a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Travis County scores just 1/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #981 of 996 counties. Job growth at -0.1% and median household income of $92,731 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Travis County affordable?

Travis County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $444,800 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.21 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,561/month on average.

Is Travis County growing or shrinking?

Travis County's population is growing — up +1.7% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of -0.1%). Home values shifted -6.2% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.

Are people moving to Travis County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 4.16% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Travis County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

Is the housing market declining in Travis County?

Home values fell -6.2% over the past year in Travis County, bringing the median down to $444,800. A drop of that magnitude usually reflects weakening demand or population outflow — worth watching if you're considering buying here.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

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