45 / 100

Erie County, NY

RANK #550 / 1001 NAT  ·  #37 / 45 NY  ·  POP 950,622

1YR FORECAST: +1.8%

5YR OUTLOOK: +27%

Erie County's housing market is projected to grow +1.8% over the next year, below the national average.

[01] Why Erie County?

Erie County, New York, is defined by its connection to Lake Erie and the city of Buffalo, its county seat. The region offers a mix of urban amenities and natural landscapes, with the northern half being relatively flat and the southern half featuring the foothills of the Appalachian Mountains. Commuting within the county is primarily by car, though Buffalo has a Metro Rail system and bus services. The community offers various parks and cultural events. Notable towns include Amherst, Clarence, and Orchard Park, known for their public schools.

Life in Erie County blends urban and suburban experiences, attracting families and young professionals. The economy, historically driven by manufacturing, has diversified, with significant employment in healthcare and education, anchored by institutions like the University at Buffalo. Tourism also contributes to the economy, with attractions like Canalside offering recreational activities. The county emphasizes community development, including initiatives for housing, childcare, and transportation, to attract and retain talent.

MARKET PROFILE

Idiosyncratic Markets

Erie County's data profile doesn't fit any single market profile cleanly — its housing, labor, and demographic signals pull in different directions (home prices +4.2% YoY, population +0.1%, wages +4.5%). About 414 U.S. counties show this kind of mixed-signal pattern.

See all 414 Idiosyncratic Markets counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
6.8x

Below national median (11.3x)

Home Prices
+4.2%

Outpacing national median

Climate & Terrain
-0.7

Below-average climate & terrain

Price/Rent
14x

Below national median (15x)

Housing is fairly valued at 6.8x relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    New York State Government
    10,000+
  2. 2
    Catholic Health Healthcare
    5,000+
  3. 3
    Kaleida Health Healthcare
  4. 4
    Buffalo Public Schools Education
  5. 5
    University at Buffalo (SUNY Buffalo) Education
  6. 6
    M&T Bank Finance
  7. 7
    Erie County Government Government
  8. 8
    Wegmans Retail
    2,500+
  9. 9
    Tops Markets LLC Retail
  10. 10
    Erie County Medical Center (ECMC) Healthcare

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Erie County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
950,622
+0.06% YoY
Median Household Income
$72,839
Median Home Value
$233,800
+4.22% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,090
Average Annual Pay
$70,007
+4.5% YoY
Employment
464,902
-0.3% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.3115
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
2.17%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
38.0%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$282,813
Days on Market
11
Very hot — homes selling fast
Months of Supply
2.5
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
105.3%
Homes selling above asking
Sold Above List
68.2%
Listings w/ Price Drops
23.7%
Building Permits (2025)
1,213
Single-Family Permits
666

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
7.1
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
8.8
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
74.7
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Near national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B-
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
46.0
Good
Good Air Days
60%
661 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
11
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
46
2022
44
2023
48
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +0.1% 26 percentile
Income Growth +2.3% 39 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.8% 65 percentile
Home Price Change +4.2% 80 percentile
Rent Growth +2.8% 47 percentile
Price/Rent 14x 70 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Erie County, NY a good place to move to?

Erie County scores 45/100 on the Boom Town Index, landing in the middle of the pack among 1001 U.S. counties (#550). Median household income is $72,839 and job growth is running at -0.3%. The data points to a county with mixed signals — some positive indicators alongside areas that lag faster-growing peers.

Is Erie County affordable?

Housing in Erie County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $233,800 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.31, with rents averaging $1,090/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Erie County growing or shrinking?

Population and employment in Erie County are both close to flat — population +0.1% YoY and jobs -0.3%. Home values shifted +4.2% over the past 12 months. A steady-state county, neither expanding quickly nor shrinking.

Are people moving to Erie County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 2.17% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Erie County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Albany County, NY 44 Livingston County, NY 49 Washington County, NY 41 Rockland County, NY 38 Dutchess County, NY 54 Orange County, NY 36 Kent County, MI 45 Milwaukee County, WI 46