32 / 100

McLennan County, TX

RANK #679 / 1001 NAT  ·  #37 / 72 TX  ·  POP 266,067

1YR FORECAST: -1.9%

5YR OUTLOOK: +26%

Our model projects McLennan County's housing market at -1.9% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why McLennan County?

McLennan County, Texas, offers a blend of urban amenities and natural beauty, centrally located along the I-35 corridor, roughly halfway between Dallas-Fort Worth and Austin. The county seat, Waco, is home to Baylor University and the historic Waco Suspension Bridge. Outdoor enthusiasts can explore Cameron Park, one of Texas's largest municipal parks, featuring miles of trails along the Brazos and Bosque Rivers, or enjoy activities on Lake Waco, notable for being the largest lake entirely within a single city's municipal boundaries. The community offers a small-town feel with access to city conveniences.

Life in McLennan County appeals to families and young professionals, with many residents owning their homes. The area's economy is experiencing growth, with new investments in sectors such as manufacturing and technology. Educational opportunities are extensive, with 20 school districts, charter schools, and private schools, alongside institutions like Baylor University, McLennan Community College, and Texas State Technical College. Commute times average around 21.2 minutes, and rural transit options connect smaller communities to Waco for essential services.

MARKET PROFILE

Idiosyncratic Markets

McLennan County's data profile doesn't fit any single market profile cleanly — its housing, labor, and demographic signals pull in different directions (home prices -0.7% YoY, population +0.9%, wages +4.8%). About 414 U.S. counties show this kind of mixed-signal pattern.

See all 414 Idiosyncratic Markets counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
8.3x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
-0.7%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
0.8

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
14x

Below national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 8.3x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Baylor University Education
    2,500+
  2. 2
    Ascension Providence Healthcare
  3. 3
    Waco ISD Education
    1,000+
  4. 4
    Baylor Scott & White Medical Center - Hillcrest Healthcare
  5. 5
    H-E-B Stores Retail
  6. 6
    City of Waco Government
  7. 7
    Walmart (all locations) Retail
  8. 8
    Midway ISD Education
  9. 9
    McLennan County Government
  10. 10
    Sanderson Farms, Inc. Manufacturing

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

McLennan County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
266,067
+0.93% YoY
Median Household Income
$66,643
Median Home Value
$243,600
-0.71% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,173
Average Annual Pay
$63,271
+4.8% YoY
Employment
122,895
+0.2% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2736
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
4.03%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
28.7%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$285,000
Days on Market
46
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
4.1
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.3%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
21.8%
Listings w/ Price Drops
31.4%
Building Permits (2025)
1,442
Single-Family Permits
770

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
5.9
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
15.4
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
68.0
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Near national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B-
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
46.3
Good
Good Air Days
60%
658 of 1,093 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
8
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
39
2022
48
2023
52
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$11,136M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Infrakey Data Center Campus
Infrakey
$10,000M Proposed
Prairie Hill Wind Farm
ENGIE
$300M Operating
Jaguar Battery Energy Storage System (BESS)
Perfect Power, LLC
$270M Under Construction
Markum Solar Farm
Scout Clean Energy (in partnership with Mortenson)
$209M Operating
Finch Storage Battery Project
Undisclosed
$201M Planned
Pepper Solar Power Plant
Sabanci Renewables
$156M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +0.9% 64 percentile
Income Growth +4.3% 83 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.2% 34 percentile
Home Price Change -0.7% 20 percentile
Rent Growth +1.2% 23 percentile
Price/Rent 14x 60 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is McLennan County, TX a good place to move to?

At 32/100, McLennan County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 1001 counties we track. Median income of $66,643 combined with job growth of +0.2% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is McLennan County affordable?

Housing in McLennan County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $243,600 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.27, with rents averaging $1,173/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is McLennan County growing or shrinking?

McLennan County's population is growing — up +0.9% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of +0.2%). Home values shifted -0.7% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.

Are people moving to McLennan County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 4.03% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests McLennan County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Tarrant County, TX 32 Starr County, TX 33 Guadalupe County, TX 30 Hood County, TX 35 Angelina County, TX 29 Polk County, TX 28 Cabarrus County, NC 32 Washington County, PA 32