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Ellis County, TX

RANK #445 / 1001 NAT  ·  #20 / 72 TX  ·  POP 213,160

1YR FORECAST: -1.9%

5YR OUTLOOK: +29%

#12 Fastest Growing
Ellis County's housing market is projected to grow -1.9% over the next year, tracking near the national average.

[01] Why Ellis County?

Ellis County, Texas, is often recognized for its historic charm, particularly the elaborate Richardsonian Romanesque architecture of the Ellis County Courthouse in Waxahachie, the county seat. Located in North Central Texas, approximately 30 miles south of Dallas, the county offers a blend of historic character and modern amenities. Commuting to Dallas is feasible, with an average one-way trip of around 29.3 minutes. The community maintains a relaxed pace, with rolling prairies and wildflowers contributing to its natural scenery. Outdoor recreation opportunities include Lake Waxahachie and Lake Bardwell for fishing and boating, alongside various parks and trails like the Waxahachie Creek Hike & Bike Trail.

Life in Ellis County appeals to families and professionals seeking a suburban lifestyle with access to urban amenities. The county's public schools are generally well-regarded, with districts like Midlothian, Palmer, and Waxahachie Independent School Districts noted for their quality. The economy is experiencing growth, driven by investments in sectors such as data centers and energy. This economic activity contributes to job creation and an increased demand for local services, supporting the county's expanding communities and infrastructure.

MARKET PROFILE

Idiosyncratic Markets

Ellis County's data profile doesn't fit any single market profile cleanly — its housing, labor, and demographic signals pull in different directions (home prices -1.6% YoY, population +4.5%, wages +2.5%). About 414 U.S. counties show this kind of mixed-signal pattern.

See all 414 Idiosyncratic Markets counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
19.4x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
-1.6%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
0.2

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
16x

Above national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 19.4x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Waxahachie Independent School District Education
    1,000+
  2. 2
    Gerdau Manufacturing
  3. 3
    Baylor Scott & White Medical Center at Waxahachie Healthcare
  4. 4
    Dart Container Corp Manufacturing
    500+
  5. 5
    Walgreen Company Retail
  6. 6
    Ellis County Government Government
  7. 7
    City of Waxahachie Government
    250+
  8. 8
    Owens Corning Fiberglass Manufacturing
  9. 9
    Cardinal IG Manufacturing
  10. 10
    UNIVAR Manufacturing

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Ellis County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
213,160
+4.53% YoY
Median Household Income
$99,595
Median Home Value
$348,600
-1.58% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,594
Average Annual Pay
$59,353
+2.5% YoY
Employment
64,549
+2.9% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2857
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
4.74%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
30.1%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$409,445
Days on Market
59
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
3.8
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.6%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
20.6%
Listings w/ Price Drops
30.5%
Building Permits (2025)
3,678
Single-Family Permits
3,230

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B-
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
4.5
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
11.3
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
56.8
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
39.0
Good
Good Air Days
80%
859 of 1,075 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
3
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
43
2022
38
2023
36
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$45,655M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Google Data Center Expansion (Midlothian & Red Oak)
Google
$40,000M Under Construction
PowerHouse Data Centers & Provident Data Centers Hyperscale Campus (Grand Prairie)
PowerHouse Data Centers & Provident Data Centers
$1,800M Planned
Sharka Data Center Buildings 4 & 5 (Midlothian)
Sharka LLC
$1,230M Under Construction
Ellis County Solar & Battery Storage Portfolio
Lightsource bp, RWE, 174 Power Global Corp., Key Capture Energy, Apex Clean Energy, Undisclosed Developers
$1,150M Operating, Under Construction, Planned
Databank Red Oak Data Centers (DFW11, DFW12, DFW13)
Databank
$975M Under Construction
Compass Datacenters Red Oak Campus Phase 2
Compass Datacenters, LLC
$500M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +4.5% 99 percentile
Income Growth +3.9% 76 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.8% 71 percentile
Home Price Change -1.6% 14 percentile
Rent Growth +2.3% 40 percentile
Price/Rent 16x 41 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Ellis County, TX a good place to move to?

Ellis County scores 55/100 on the Boom Town Index, landing in the middle of the pack among 1001 U.S. counties (#445). Median household income is $99,595 and job growth is running at +2.9%. The data points to a county with mixed signals — some positive indicators alongside areas that lag faster-growing peers.

Is Ellis County affordable?

Housing in Ellis County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $348,600 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.29, with rents averaging $1,594/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Ellis County growing or shrinking?

Ellis County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +4.5% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +2.9% clip. Home values shifted -1.6% in the past year.

Are people moving to Ellis County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 4.74% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Ellis County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Parker County, TX 53 Wichita County, TX 60 Galveston County, TX 50 Smith County, TX 50 El Paso County, TX 49 Walker County, TX 49 Johnston County, NC 55 Madera County, CA 55