RANK #826 / 1001 NAT · #49 / 72 TX · POP 53,547
1YR FORECAST: -2.7%
5YR OUTLOOK: +22%
Medina County, Texas, west of San Antonio, offers a blend of small-town character and access to a major metropolitan area. Castroville, a notable town, retains a distinctive Alsatian architectural style from its founding in 1844. The county is characterized by rolling hills and open plains, with the Medina River traversing its northeastern portion. Outdoor recreation opportunities include hunting and fishing, particularly at Medina Lake, known for its catfish and bass. Government Canyon State Natural Area provides hiking trails with varied terrain and views of the Texas Hill Country. The average commute time for residents is around 31.6 minutes.
Life in Medina County often appeals to families and those seeking a quieter, more rural setting with proximity to urban amenities. The community is experiencing growth in both population and infrastructure. The local economy has historical roots in agriculture, with farming and ranching remaining important. Recent economic developments indicate investment in sectors such as data centers and energy. The county is served by several independent school districts, including Medina Valley ISD, Devine ISD, and Hondo ISD.
Medina County's data profile doesn't fit any single market profile cleanly — its housing, labor, and demographic signals pull in different directions (home prices -2.6% YoY, population +2.1%, wages +4.8%). About 414 U.S. counties show this kind of mixed-signal pattern.
See all 414 Idiosyncratic Markets counties →Overvalued relative to economy
Prices declining
Moderate climate & terrain
Below national median (15x)
Housing looks overvalued at 21.8x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.
Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.
Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).
Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →
Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →
| PROJECT | AMOUNT | STATUS |
|---|---|---|
|
Microsoft Data Centers (Multiple Projects)
Microsoft
|
$1,465M | Under Construction |
|
Project Cinco Data Center Campus
Rowan Digital Infrastructure
|
$900M | Under Construction |
|
Dunlay Solar (2 projects)
|
$331M | Planned |
|
Hondo Arroyo Storage & Ranger BESS (Battery Storage)
|
$256M | Planned |
|
Viera Master-Planned Community
Masonwood Development
|
$50M | Planned |
Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.
Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.
The data is not encouraging — Medina County scores just 17/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #826 of 1001 counties. Job growth at +4.8% and median household income of $78,074 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.
Housing in Medina County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $239,600 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.33, with rents averaging $1,196/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.
Medina County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +2.1% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +4.8% clip. Home values shifted -2.6% in the past year.
In significant numbers — 5.06% of Medina County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.