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Medina County, TX

Devine-Natalia

RANK #662 / 996 NAT  ·  #33 / 69 TX  ·  POP 51,432

1YR FORECAST: +0.1%

5YR OUTLOOK: +20%

#19 Best Rental Yield
Our model projects Medina County's housing market at +0.1% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Medina County?

Medina County, Texas, west of San Antonio, offers a blend of small-town character and access to a major metropolitan area. Castroville, a notable town, retains a distinctive Alsatian architectural style from its founding in 1844. The county is characterized by rolling hills and open plains, with the Medina River traversing its northeastern portion. Outdoor recreation opportunities include hunting and fishing, particularly at Medina Lake, known for its catfish and bass. Government Canyon State Natural Area provides hiking trails with varied terrain and views of the Texas Hill Country. The average commute time for residents is around 31.6 minutes.

Life in Medina County often appeals to families and those seeking a quieter, more rural setting with proximity to urban amenities. The community is experiencing growth in both population and infrastructure. The local economy has historical roots in agriculture, with farming and ranching remaining important. Recent economic developments indicate investment in sectors such as data centers and energy. The county is served by several independent school districts, including Medina Valley ISD, Devine ISD, and Hondo ISD.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
7.8x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
-1.0%

Contracting economy

Home Prices
-2.5%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
0.7

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
8x

Strong rental yield

Housing looks overvalued at 7.8x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Medina Valley Independent School District Education
    95
  2. 2
    United States Air Force Military
    92
  3. 3
    USAA Finance
    81
  4. 4
    Hondo Independent School District Education
    73
  5. 5
    State Of Texas Government
    67
  6. 6
    Love's Travel Stops & Country Stores Retail
    60
  7. 7
    Devine Independent School District Education
    59
  8. 8
    Citigroup Finance
    57
  9. 9
    Northside Independent School District Education
    55
  10. 10
    H-E-B Retail
    51

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Medina County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
51,432
+1.93% YoY
Median Household Income
$73,060
Median Home Value
$186,200
-2.51% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,038
Average Annual Pay
$49,233
+3.9% YoY
Employment
10,860
+1.9% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.3924
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
5.72%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
22.2%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$342,990
Days on Market
195
Slower market
Months of Supply
8.2
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
99.0%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
23.2%
Listings w/ Price Drops
32.5%
Building Permits (2024)
100
Single-Family Permits
100

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B-
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
4.7
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
12.7
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
66.8
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Capital Investment

$3,002M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Microsoft Data Centers (Multiple Projects)
Microsoft
$1,465M Under Construction
Project Cinco Data Center Campus
Rowan Digital Infrastructure
$900M Under Construction
Dunlay Solar (2 projects)
$331M Planned
Hondo Arroyo Storage & Ranger BESS (Battery Storage)
$256M Planned
Viera Master-Planned Community
Masonwood Development
$50M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth -1.0% 4 percentile
Population Growth +1.9% 89 percentile
Income Growth +8.8% 56 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.7% 82 percentile
Home Price Change -2.5% 12 percentile
Rent Growth +7.1% 91 percentile
Price/Rent 8x 98 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Medina County, TX a good place to move to?

At 33/100, Medina County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 996 counties we track. Median income of $73,060 combined with job growth of +1.9% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Medina County affordable?

By national standards, Medina County is quite affordable. Homes here have a median value of $186,200, and the income-to-home-value ratio of 0.39 is well above the U.S. average — especially with median rent at just $1,038/month. Residents can generally buy a home without being cost-burdened.

Is Medina County growing or shrinking?

Medina County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +1.9% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +1.9% clip. Home values shifted -2.5% in the past year.

Are people moving to Medina County?

In significant numbers — 5.72% of Medina County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Smith County, TX 35 El Paso County, TX 36 Hood County, TX 30 Hidalgo County, TX 30 Coryell County, TX 38 McLennan County, TX 39 Venango County, PA 33 Franklin County, MA 33