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Lincoln County, OR

RANK #840 / 1001 NAT  ·  #9 / 18 OR  ·  POP 50,964

1YR FORECAST: -0.2%

5YR OUTLOOK: +22%

#31 Best Climate & Terrain
Our model projects Lincoln County's housing market at -0.2% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Lincoln County?

Lincoln County, Oregon, distinguishes itself with its dramatic Pacific coastline and notable towns like Newport, home to the Oregon Coast Aquarium and Hatfield Marine Science Center, and Depoe Bay, known as the "whale watching capital of the world." Situated on the central Oregon Coast, roughly 88 miles from Portland and 58 miles from Salem, the county offers a temperate climate and a community feel that blends coastal relaxation with access to outdoor recreation. Residents and visitors enjoy miles of sandy beaches, rocky cliffs, and opportunities for surfing, fishing, crabbing, and hiking in areas like the Siuslaw National Forest and numerous state parks. The county's natural amenities, including its diverse landscapes and water access, are highly rated.

Life in Lincoln County is shaped by its coastal environment and a growing retiree population. While traditional industries like timber and fishing have seen a decline, tourism remains a major employer, alongside trade, services, and an emerging "Blue Economy" focused on marine science and technology. The Lincoln County School District serves approximately 5,200 students across 11 regular and 4 charter schools, with a student-teacher ratio of 16:1. Commute options within the county include local bus services and Dial-A-Ride in Newport and Lincoln City, with regional connections to cities like Corvallis, Albany, and Salem via the Coast to Valley Express.

MARKET PROFILE

Idiosyncratic Markets

Lincoln County's data profile doesn't fit any single market profile cleanly — its housing, labor, and demographic signals pull in different directions (home prices +0.2% YoY, population +0.7%, wages +4.4%). About 414 U.S. counties show this kind of mixed-signal pattern.

See all 414 Idiosyncratic Markets counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
21.3x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
+0.2%

Well below national median

Climate & Terrain
6.1

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
17x

Above national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 21.3x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Confederated Tribes of Siletz Indians Other
    1,000+
  2. 2
    Lincoln County School District Education
    500+
  3. 3
    Samaritan Health Services Healthcare
  4. 4
    Lincoln County Government Government
  5. 5
    Oregon State University Hatfield Marine Science Center Education
    250+
  6. 6
    Georgia-Pacific-Toledo Manufacturing
  7. 7
    Pacific Seafood Other
  8. 8
    Central Lincoln PUD Energy
  9. 9
    Walmart Retail
  10. 10
    City of Newport Government

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Lincoln County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
50,964
+0.66% YoY
Median Household Income
$63,165
Median Home Value
$410,800
+0.18% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,201
Average Annual Pay
$53,107
+4.4% YoY
Employment
18,535
-0.4% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1538
Less affordable than average
Migration Inflow
4.35%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
28.6%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$480,000
Days on Market
53
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
6.4
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
96.3%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
8.5%
Listings w/ Price Drops
27.8%
Building Permits (2025)
209
Single-Family Permits
116

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
3.2
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
21.1
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
132.7
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +0.7% 51 percentile
Income Growth +3.0% 57 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.3% 25 percentile
Home Price Change +0.2% 28 percentile
Rent Growth +6.9% 91 percentile
Price/Rent 17x 32 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[07] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Lincoln County, OR a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Lincoln County scores just 15/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #840 of 1001 counties. Job growth at -0.4% and median household income of $63,165 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Lincoln County affordable?

Lincoln County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $410,800 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.15 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,201/month on average.

Is Lincoln County growing or shrinking?

Lincoln County's population is growing — up +0.7% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of -0.4%). Home values shifted +0.2% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.

Are people moving to Lincoln County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 4.35% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Lincoln County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[08] Similar Counties by Size & Score

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