15 / 100

Polk County, OR

RANK #844 / 1001 NAT  ·  #11 / 18 OR  ·  POP 89,662

1YR FORECAST: -0.8%

5YR OUTLOOK: +22%

#8 Most Overvalued
Our model projects Polk County's housing market at -0.8% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Polk County?

Polk County, Oregon, distinguishes itself with the historic town of Independence, once the final destination for early wagon trains on the Oregon Trail. Located in the Willamette Valley, approximately 15 miles west of Salem, the county offers a blend of rural landscapes and small-town living. Residents have access to outdoor recreation, including riverfront parks, island trails, and old-growth forests, particularly along the Willamette River and its tributaries. Popular spots include Minto-Brown Island Park and the Valley of the Giants Outstanding Natural Area. The climate provides four distinct seasons with an average of 222 days of sunshine annually.

Life in Polk County often involves a commute, with the average resident spending about 25.3 minutes driving to work, though public transit options like Cherriots Regional connect towns such as Dallas, Monmouth, and Independence to Salem. Western Oregon University in Monmouth contributes to the area's educational landscape and provides employment. The economy is supported by agriculture, particularly fruit, nuts, and hops, alongside a focus on value-added agricultural products. Efforts are also underway to enhance tourism, especially agri-tourism, and to improve infrastructure, including transportation access and broadband internet.

MARKET PROFILE

Western Premium Correction

Polk County is one of 78 U.S. counties in this market profile — weaker than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of +1.0% runs above the profile's typical -0.8%.

See all 78 Western Premium Correction counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
35.5x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
+1.0%

Below national median

Climate & Terrain
3.3

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
22x

Prices detached from rents

Housing looks overvalued at 35.5x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    State of Oregon Government
    25,000+
  2. 2
    Salem Health Healthcare
    2,500+
  3. 3
    Polk County Government Government
    250+
  4. 4
    Western Oregon University Education
  5. 5
    Confederated Tribes of Grand Ronde (Spirit Mountain Casino) Hospitality
  6. 6
    Meduri Farms Manufacturing
  7. 7
    James W. Fowler Co. Other
  8. 8
    OpenRoad Logistics

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Polk County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
89,662
+1.25% YoY
Median Household Income
$85,118
Median Home Value
$454,700
+0.99% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,299
Average Annual Pay
$54,302
+3.9% YoY
Employment
21,163
-3.5% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1872
Near national average
Migration Inflow
6.93%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
31.2%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$465,000
Days on Market
54
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
4.4
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
99.4%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
30.3%
Listings w/ Price Drops
32.9%
Building Permits (2025)
103
Single-Family Permits
89

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

A
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
1.7
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
11.6
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
83.4
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +1.2% 73 percentile
Income Growth +4.7% 87 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.8% 64 percentile
Home Price Change +1.0% 38 percentile
Rent Growth +0.4% 14 percentile
Price/Rent 22x 9 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[07] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Polk County, OR a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Polk County scores just 15/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #844 of 1001 counties. Job growth at -3.5% and median household income of $85,118 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Polk County affordable?

Polk County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $454,700 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.19 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,299/month on average.

Is Polk County growing or shrinking?

Polk County is attracting residents (population +1.2% YoY) even as the job market softens with employment at -3.5%. Housing values changed +1.0% over the past 12 months. People may be moving here for affordability or lifestyle reasons rather than job opportunities.

Are people moving to Polk County?

In significant numbers — 6.93% of Polk County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[08] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Lincoln County, OR 15 Douglas County, OR 15 Clackamas County, OR 16 Lane County, OR 14 Yamhill County, OR 10 Multnomah County, OR 9 Steuben County, NY 15 Hoke County, NC 15