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Montgomery County, TX

RANK #895 / 1001 NAT  ·  #54 / 72 TX  ·  POP 684,432

1YR FORECAST: -3.0%

5YR OUTLOOK: +19%

#11 Fastest Growing
Our model projects Montgomery County's housing market at -3.0% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Montgomery County?

Montgomery County, Texas, is recognized as the "Birthplace of the Lone Star Flag," a point of local pride. Located approximately 40 miles north of downtown Houston, the county offers a blend of suburban and rural living. Commute times to Houston vary, with options like The Woodlands Express and METRO Park and Ride services available in some areas. The community maintains a relaxed pace, with a strong sense of local connection. Natural amenities are a significant draw, including Lake Conroe for water sports and fishing, and the Sam Houston National Forest and W. Goodrich Jones State Forest for hiking and bird watching.

Life in Montgomery County appeals to families seeking highly-rated public schools, such as those in Conroe, Montgomery, and Magnolia ISDs. The county has experienced substantial population growth, attracting residents who may commute to Houston or work remotely. The economy is expanding with new commercial and residential developments. Key sectors seeing investment include business services, often supporting energy operations, along with retail, healthcare, distribution, and manufacturing.

MARKET PROFILE
LEANS TOWARD

Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction

Montgomery County is one of 76 U.S. counties in this market profile — near the profile average on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of -0.9% runs above the profile's typical -3.7%.

See all 76 Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
13.8x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
-0.9%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
1.6

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
17x

Above national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 13.8x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Conroe Independent School District (CISD) Education
    10,000+
  2. 2
    ExxonMobil Energy
  3. 3
    Memorial Hermann The Woodlands Medical Center Healthcare
    1,000+
  4. 4
    Lone Star College Education
  5. 5
    Walmart Distribution Center Logistics
    500+
  6. 6
    Walmart Retail
  7. 7
    Splendora ISD Education
  8. 8
    Kroger Retail
    250+
  9. 9
    Houston Methodist The Woodlands Hospital Healthcare
  10. 10
    St. Luke's Health - The Woodlands Hospital Healthcare

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Montgomery County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
684,432
+4.54% YoY
Median Household Income
$97,701
Median Home Value
$346,200
-0.89% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,532
Average Annual Pay
$72,966
+3.8% YoY
Employment
235,338
+3.5% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2822
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
4.5%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
38.8%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$346,740
Days on Market
56
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
3.6
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
96.2%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
12.6%
Listings w/ Price Drops
44.5%
Building Permits (2025)
13,614
Single-Family Permits
11,597

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
4.0
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
14.1
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
65.5
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

C+
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
50.3
Moderate
Good Air Days
49%
530 of 1,087 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
18
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
47
2022
51
2023
53
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$2,625M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Montgomery County Power Station
Entergy Texas Inc.
$1,000M Operating
Montgomery County 2025 Capital Improvement Bond
Montgomery County
$825M Proposed
Data Journey Bunker Campus
Data Journey
$500M Planned
400-acre Residential Development near Lake Conroe
J. Alan Kent Development
$200M Planned
Amazon Delivery Station (Porter)
Amazon
$50M Under Construction
Blackfin Pipeline
Undisclosed
$50M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +4.5% 99 percentile
Income Growth +0.5% 10 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.4% 23 percentile
Home Price Change -0.9% 19 percentile
Rent Growth -1.0% 6 percentile
Price/Rent 17x 33 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Montgomery County, TX a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Montgomery County scores just 10/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #895 of 1001 counties. Job growth at +3.5% and median household income of $97,701 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Montgomery County affordable?

Housing in Montgomery County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $346,200 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.28, with rents averaging $1,532/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Montgomery County growing or shrinking?

Montgomery County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +4.5% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +3.5% clip. Home values shifted -0.9% in the past year.

Are people moving to Montgomery County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 4.5% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Montgomery County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

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