RANK #913 / 1001 NAT · #57 / 72 TX · POP 106,582
1YR FORECAST: -2.6%
5YR OUTLOOK: +18%
Bastrop County, Texas, is often recognized for its "Lost Pines," a unique forest of loblolly pines isolated from East Texas pine regions. Located about 30 miles southeast of Austin, the county offers a blend of rural charm and accessibility to city amenities. The Colorado River flows through the county, providing opportunities for kayaking, canoeing, and fishing. Bastrop State Park and McKinney Roughs Nature Park offer extensive trails for hiking, biking, and horseback riding, along with camping and water activities on Lake Bastrop. The area maintains a small-town feel, with historic communities like Bastrop, Elgin, and Smithville. Commute options to Austin are available via major highways like SH 71, and public transportation is provided by CARTS, including on-demand services.
Life in Bastrop County appeals to families, retirees, and remote workers seeking a quieter lifestyle with access to nature. The economy is experiencing growth driven by investments in various sectors. Advanced manufacturing and technology are expanding, with new facilities and corporate relocations contributing to job creation. Infrastructure improvements, including broadband expansion, support both existing businesses and emerging industries. The county is also seeing development in commercial and residential spaces, as well as the film and energy sectors. Bastrop County Independent School District, Elgin Independent School District, McDade Independent School District, and Smithville Independent School District serve the area's students.
Bastrop County is one of 76 U.S. counties in this market profile — weaker than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of -4.3% runs below the profile's typical -3.7%.
See all 76 Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction counties →Overvalued relative to economy
Prices declining
Moderate climate & terrain
Below national median (15x)
Housing looks overvalued at 26.2x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.
Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.
Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).
Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →
Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →
| PROJECT | AMOUNT | STATUS |
|---|---|---|
|
EdgeConneX Data Center Campus
EdgeConneX
|
$1,440M | Under Construction |
|
Sendero Mixed-Use Development
|
$300M | Under Construction |
|
Big Star Solar and Battery Storage Project
RWE
|
$280M | Operating |
|
SpaceX/Starlink Expansion
SpaceX/Starlink
|
$280M | Under Construction |
|
Bastrop County Judicial Complex & Jail Expansion
Bastrop County
|
$186M | Planned |
|
SH-71 Overpass and Frontage Roads
TxDOT
|
$183M | Under Construction |
Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.
Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.
The data is not encouraging — Bastrop County scores just 8/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #913 of 1001 counties. Job growth at +3.7% and median household income of $86,226 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.
Housing in Bastrop County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $314,800 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.27, with rents averaging $1,410/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.
Bastrop County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +4.1% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +3.7% clip. Home values shifted -4.3% in the past year.
In significant numbers — 5.91% of Bastrop County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.