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Bastrop County, TX

Cedar Creek-Red Rock

RANK #969 / 996 NAT  ·  #63 / 69 TX  ·  POP 98,435

1YR FORECAST: -3.2%

5YR OUTLOOK: +6%

#18 Fastest Growing
Our model projects Bastrop County's housing market at -3.2% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Bastrop County?

Bastrop County, Texas, is often recognized for its "Lost Pines," a unique forest of loblolly pines isolated from East Texas pine regions. Located about 30 miles southeast of Austin, the county offers a blend of rural charm and accessibility to city amenities. The Colorado River flows through the county, providing opportunities for kayaking, canoeing, and fishing. Bastrop State Park and McKinney Roughs Nature Park offer extensive trails for hiking, biking, and horseback riding, along with camping and water activities on Lake Bastrop. The area maintains a small-town feel, with historic communities like Bastrop, Elgin, and Smithville. Commute options to Austin are available via major highways like SH 71, and public transportation is provided by CARTS, including on-demand services.

Life in Bastrop County appeals to families, retirees, and remote workers seeking a quieter lifestyle with access to nature. The economy is experiencing growth driven by investments in various sectors. Advanced manufacturing and technology are expanding, with new facilities and corporate relocations contributing to job creation. Infrastructure improvements, including broadband expansion, support both existing businesses and emerging industries. The county is also seeing development in commercial and residential spaces, as well as the film and energy sectors. Bastrop County Independent School District, Elgin Independent School District, McDade Independent School District, and Smithville Independent School District serve the area's students.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
6.9x

Above national median (4.7x)

GDP Growth
+3.8%

Above national median

Home Prices
-3.8%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
0.9

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
11x

Strong rental yield

Housing is fairly valued at 6.9x relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Bastrop Independent School District Education
    10,000+
  2. 2
    Hyatt Regency Lost Pines Resort and Spa Hospitality
    500+
  3. 3
    Bastrop County Government Government
  4. 4
    MD Anderson Cancer Center Healthcare
  5. 5
    The Boring Company Technology
  6. 6
    Bluebonnet Electric Cooperative Energy
  7. 7
    First National Bank of Bastrop Finance
  8. 8
    Walmart Retail
  9. 9
    UPS Logistics
  10. 10
    The Home Depot Retail

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Bastrop County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
98,435
+3.74% YoY
Median Household Income
$80,151
Median Home Value
$235,900
-3.84% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,195
Average Annual Pay
$54,112
+6.5% YoY
Employment
22,593
+4.6% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.3398
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
5.65%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
23.0%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$335,000
Days on Market
151
Slower market
Months of Supply
8.4
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
96.6%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
9.4%
Listings w/ Price Drops
27.7%
Building Permits (2024)
1,841
Single-Family Permits
1,419

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
6.2
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
14.7
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
90.0
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Near national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Capital Investment

$2,668M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
EdgeConneX Data Center Campus
EdgeConneX
$1,440M Under Construction
Sendero Mixed-Use Development
$300M Under Construction
Big Star Solar and Battery Storage Project
RWE
$280M Operating
SpaceX/Starlink Expansion
SpaceX/Starlink
$280M Under Construction
Bastrop County Judicial Complex & Jail Expansion
Bastrop County
$186M Planned
SH-71 Overpass and Frontage Roads
TxDOT
$183M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +3.8% 70 percentile
Population Growth +3.7% 98 percentile
Income Growth +2.3% 1 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.4% 96 percentile
Home Price Change -3.8% 6 percentile
Rent Growth +0.8% 17 percentile
Price/Rent 11x 84 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Bastrop County, TX a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Bastrop County scores just 2/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #969 of 996 counties. Job growth at +4.6% and median household income of $80,151 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Bastrop County affordable?

Housing in Bastrop County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $235,900 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.34, with rents averaging $1,195/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Bastrop County growing or shrinking?

Bastrop County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +3.7% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +4.6% clip. Home values shifted -3.8% in the past year.

Are people moving to Bastrop County?

In significant numbers — 5.65% of Bastrop County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Kerr County, TX 2 Denton County, TX 2 Fort Bend County, TX 2 Grayson County, TX 3 Wise County, TX 3 Bexar County, TX 1 Talladega County, AL 3 Broomfield County, CO 3