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Hays County, TX

Kyle-Buda

RANK #951 / 996 NAT  ·  #59 / 69 TX  ·  POP 245,351

1YR FORECAST: -1.9%

5YR OUTLOOK: +8%

#5 Fastest Growing
Our model projects Hays County's housing market at -1.9% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Hays County?

Hays County, Texas, is often recognized for Jacob's Well Natural Area, a significant artesian spring and the headwaters of Cypress Creek, offering swimming and hiking opportunities. Located in south-central Texas, approximately 23 miles southwest of Austin, the county blends hilly, tree-covered ranch land with agricultural plains. Commuting to Austin is common, with Interstate 35 serving as a primary route. The community offers access to numerous parks and natural areas like Blue Hole Regional Park and Spring Lake Natural Area, providing trails for walking, running, birding, and swimming.

Life in Hays County attracts a mix of families and professionals, many of whom commute to nearby cities. The economy is experiencing growth, driven by investments in commercial and residential development. Educational institutions, including Texas State University in San Marcos, contribute to a skilled workforce. The county has also seen expansion in industrial and logistics sectors, alongside some manufacturing activity. Public schools in Hays County are generally well-regarded.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
7.0x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+7.3%

Well above national median

Home Prices
-5.3%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
2.2

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
18x

Above national median (13x)

Housing looks overvalued at 7.0x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Amazon Fulfillment Logistics
    5,000+
  2. 2
    Texas State University Education
    2,500+
  3. 3
    Hays Consolidated Independent School District Education
  4. 4
    Premium Outlets Retail
    1,000+
  5. 5
    Tanger Outlets Retail
  6. 6
    San Marcos Consolidated Independent School District Education
  7. 7
    Dripping Springs Independent School District Education
  8. 8
    Hays County Government Government
    500+
  9. 9
    City of San Marcos Government Government
  10. 10
    H-E-B Distribution Center Logistics

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Hays County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
245,351
+4.59% YoY
Median Household Income
$79,990
Median Home Value
$335,700
-5.33% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,355
Average Annual Pay
$54,838
+3.4% YoY
Employment
95,598
+5.5% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2383
Near national average
Migration Inflow
8.41%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
40.4%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$355,500
Days on Market
114
Slower market
Months of Supply
5.8
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.7%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
11.6%
Listings w/ Price Drops
31.5%
Building Permits (2024)
5,405
Single-Family Permits
3,918

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
3.8
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
11.2
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
52.5
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Capital Investment

$3,040M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Border States Tenant Improvement
Firecracker 6 Industrial Owner LLC
$1,000M Under Construction
Hays CISD Bond Program (Educational Facilities, Athletics, Technology)
Hays CISD
$969M Planned
Waterstone Unit A
DRP TX3, LLC
$603M Under Construction
Texas State Hilltop Housing Phase II
Texas State University System
$228M Under Construction
Amazon Fulfillment and Logistics Centers (Multiple Locations)
Amazon
$191M Operating
CloudBurst Data Centers - San Marcos Data Center I (Phase 1)
CloudBurst Data Centers / Evolve Holdings
$50M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +7.3% 94 percentile
Population Growth +4.6% 100 percentile
Income Growth +12.6% 97 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.9% 62 percentile
Home Price Change -5.3% 2 percentile
Rent Growth +0.3% 13 percentile
Price/Rent 18x 16 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Hays County, TX a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Hays County scores just 4/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #951 of 996 counties. Job growth at +5.5% and median household income of $79,990 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Hays County affordable?

Hays County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $335,700 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.24 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,355/month on average.

Is Hays County growing or shrinking?

Hays County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +4.6% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +5.5% clip. Home values shifted -5.3% in the past year.

Are people moving to Hays County?

In significant numbers — 8.41% of Hays County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

Is the housing market declining in Hays County?

Home values fell -5.3% over the past year in Hays County, bringing the median down to $335,700. A drop of that magnitude usually reflects weakening demand or population outflow — worth watching if you're considering buying here.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Waller County, TX 4 Grayson County, TX 3 Wise County, TX 3 Comal County, TX 6 Rockwall County, TX 6 Kerr County, TX 2 Forsyth County, GA 4 Indian River County, FL 4